The White House offered the proposal within days of rolling out a military aid package for Kiev that included main battle tanks, reflecting a growing rift in the Joe Biden administration.
Report: Biden Pushed Peace Plan that Recognized Russia’s Control Over 20% of Ukraine
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Machine translation, in English, below:
Olaf Scholz sold his tank turnaround as a well-considered decision – but in fact he was probably taken by surprise
by Marco Seliger | 02.01.2023
References from German foreign politicians shake the image of the far-sighted strategist in the Chancellery. Rather, the head of government’s decision to send Leopard 2 to Ukraine seems to have been hectic and without coordination with the coalition partners.
The day after his decision to send main battle tanks to Ukraine, Olaf Scholz pretended to be a cunning strategist. He had not hesitated and hesitated, as the short-sighted and ignorant opponents of his course repeatedly accused him of, he explained. Rather, everything followed a long-term plan on which he had confidently coordinated with Washington and Paris as well as the partners in the Berlin coalition.
Now three indications allow the conclusion that this presentation may not be true. Rather, it seems that Scholz was not willing to deliver Leopard 2 until the end, and he has thus maneuvered himself into a predicament.
Peace for land, country for peace?
One of the clues is a confidential conversation between the NZZ and two influential foreign politicians, one from the government coalition, the other from the opposition. Both insist on anonymity because what they say independently of each other is explosive. After that, US President Joe Biden instructed CIA leader William Burns in mid-January to sound out the willingness to negotiate in Kiev and Moscow.
The offer to Kiev was: peace against land, the offer to Moscow: country against peace. The “country” is said to have been about 20 percent of Ukrainian territory. That’s about the size of Donbass. Both sides, the two politicians report, would have refused. The Ukrainians, because they are not willing to share their territory, the Russians, because they expect to win the war in the long run anyway.
These statements are explosive on the one hand because they give an indirect insight into the views in the White House at the time of Burns’ journey. According to the two German foreign politicians, Biden wanted to avoid a protracted war in Ukraine and was willing to reveal parts of the country. If this presentation is true, Biden would not be alone in his attitude in Washington. A new study by the Rand Corporation (“Avoiding a long war”), a renowned American think tank, concludes that “avoiding a long war is a higher priority for the United States” than allowing Ukraine to “control its entire territory.”
Biden turns around in the short term
If all this is true, then the statements would also indicate a possible division of the American government on the Ukraine issue. On the one hand, as the two German deputies describe it, there would be security adviser Jake Sullivan and CIA head Burns. They wanted to end the war quickly in order to be able to focus on China. On the other hand, Foreign Minister Antony Blinken and Defense Minister Lloyd Austin would be on the other hand. They did not want to let Russia pass through destroying the rules-based peace order and pleaded for massive military support from Ukraine.
After Burns failed with his diplomatic mission in Kiev and Moscow, according to the two German sources, President Biden decided to give in to the pressure of the German Chancellor and to approve the delivery of Abram’s main battle tanks. Originally, Biden wanted to leave it at a three-digit number of armored personnel carriers and other weapons. The main battle tanks should therefore have been supplied by the Europeans alone.
Scholz probably did not expect this, if the reports are correct, with which reference number two comes into play. In the late afternoon of the 24th January, on the day of the German Chancellor’s tank decision, the Federal Foreign Office in Berlin sent an official language regulation for diplomats to all diplomatic missions abroad. Under the heading “Lines to take: Delivery of Leopard tanks for the UKR”, the Ministry of Green politician Annalena Baerbock stated that “the federal government has not yet made a decision on the question of the supply of main battle tanks from Germany.” Within the international support coalition for Ukraine, there is still a need for discussion on the question of the possible delivery of Leopard 2. The paper is classified and is available to the NZZ.
Embarrassing situation for the Federal Foreign Office
At that time, the American government had long since leaked to want to deliver Abrams battle tanks to Ukraine. Olaf Scholz must also have already made his decision by then, as the time of the first report suggests. An hour and a half after the Federal Foreign Office was notified to its embassies and consulates, the “Spiegel” reported at about 6:30 p.m. on the Chancellor’s decision to send Leopard 2 to Ukraine. As a result, the Ministry of Baerbock had to withdraw the language regulation.
The process allows for two conclusions. First: Baerbock apparently knew nothing about the decision in the Chancellery. Scholz apparently met them without putting the most important representatives of his coalition partners into the picture in good time. Secondly, this would be an indication that Scholz was surprised by the events in Washington. He apparently assumed until the end that Biden would follow the line of CIA head Burns and security adviser Sullivan.
According to this, the German chancellor probably speculated on getting around a battle tank delivery. When Biden decided otherwise, Scholz had to change his attitude within a very short time. His story of a long-term plan coordinated with Washington and Paris seems questionable. American media reported that Biden believed until the end that Germany and other Europeans should supply main battle tanks while the US sends armored personnel carriers.
Ministry of Defense does not know tank stocks
Finally, there is a third hint that makes the reading of the Berlin Chancellery doubt Olaf Scholz’s diplomatic refinement. It was initiated by the Christian Democratic deputy Nicolas Zippelius, delivered to Siemtje Möller, Social Democratic State Secretary in the Ministry of Defense. Zippelius had asked Möller whether the federal government had checked the availability of tanks for possible deliveries to Ukraine last year. This was preceded by the statement of the new Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius on the sidelines of a meeting of Ukraine supporters in Ramstein on the 20th. January, he currently does not know how many tanks are ready for use at all.
Möller’s answer seemed to have surprised even the Union in the German Bundestag. “No comprehensive and detailed examination of the availability of the Bundeswehr’s stocks of main battle tanks and armored personnel carriers in the context of possible deliveries to Ukraine” the Secretary of State admitted. There was “no common positioning among the supporting states of Ukraine for a possible delivery of the aforementioned weapon systems,” she justified this statement.
Eleven months after the start of the war, the German Ministry of Defense claims to have determined its stock of combat and armored personnel carriers for the first time? It’s hard to believe. The “clear status” of the main weapon systems in the Bundeswehr is regularly determined and reported to the Ministry of Defense. Union politicians express the suspicion that the Chancellery has prohibited the Ministry of Defense from even planning a delivery of tanks to Ukraine.
Scholz did not want to deliver until the end, because he firmly assumed that the Americans would not send main battle tanks either,” says the Union. This caused damage to the image from which Germany could have been protected by a strategic culture of foresight and partnership between the Federal Government.
The entire process leaves Germany’s chancellor in a bad light. It is not only the case that Scholz’s tank decision seemed hasty. It is also the case that he felt probably forced by the decision in Washington to supply one of the most modern main battle tanks from the Bundeswehr’s stock with the Leopard 2A6 within the next two months. This tears another gap into German defense capability.
The Americans, however, only announced after the German decision what exactly they intend to deliver. There will be 31 abrams, but not from the active force, but from depots. It will take about a year for these tanks to be overhauled and ready for use. That’s a lot of time in a war. Until then, it could be that some of the Leopard tanks have already been destroyed in Ukraine.
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