Israel and Hezbollah Are Escalating Toward Catastrophe (it’s not looking good for the IOF)

Ignore the propaganda. I’ve quoted the most relevant parts of the articles:

09-23-2024 – Israel and Hezbollah Are Escalating Toward Catastrophe

For Israel, the incentives also argue against a large-scale war with Hezbollah. After nearly a year of fighting in Gaza, the IDF is tired, munitions stockpiles are depleted, public support for Israel’s leaders is weak, Israel’s economy is suffering, and its international and regional standing have significantly eroded. And IDF military planners are well aware that Hezbollah’s more advanced fighting capabilities and sophisticated weapons arsenal would make the Gaza campaign look like child’s play.

Hezbollah’s missile, rocket, and drone arsenal would strain Israel’s defensive capabilities, especially when targeting shifts from military to civilian areas. A Reichman University war game shortly before Hamas’s October 7 attack predicted that Hezbollah can launch 2,500 to 3,000 missile and rocket attacks into Israel per day for weeks. Some estimates calculate Hezbollah’s missile, rocket, and drone arsenal to be at least 150,000 strong—ten times the number of munitions it had during the 2006 war—and it now includes precision-guided munitions that could threaten strategic sites within Israel. Israel’s stock of Iron Dome and David’s Sling missile interceptors would be depleted within days. The Reichman war game also anticipated volleys of precision-guided and loitering munitions targeting Israel’s critical infrastructure and civilian centers; it was assumed that U.S. military assistance would not be sufficient or timely enough to back up strained Israeli air defenses, forcing the IDF to defend only priority areas.

The Biden administration’s May 2024 decision to pause the delivery of certain munitions highlighted a critical vulnerability for Israel: its depleted weapons caches after months of war in Gaza. In July, the IDF acknowledged that it was suffering from a shortage of tanks, after many were damaged in Gaza, as well as ammunition and personnel. There are also reported shortages of spare parts, none of which can be replenished as quickly as an expanded war in Lebanon would require. Some Israeli tanks in Gaza are not fully loaded with shells because of strains on supply. Given the expectation that a war in Lebanon would not be limited in time, scope, or geography, no military would want to initiate a second front with such low levels of operational readiness.

The IDF should also be concerned about the impact on Israel’s manpower. In June, an Israeli organization that provides support to IDF reservists reported that 10,000 reservists had requested mental health support, thousands had been laid off from civilian jobs, and some 1,000 businesses operated by reservists had shut down. It also reported that a significant number of reservists had failed to report for duty after being called up for a second or third time because of burnout. Exhaustion is also prevalent among active-duty forces. In July, four IDF commanders met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to sounds the alarm about the state of their forces. Low morale and growing fatigue across Israel’s fighting force should give Israeli decision-makers pause as they consider an expanded war.

Israel’s economy has also incurred significant losses, which would be compounded if the country was embroiled in a follow-on war in Lebanon. Data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development indicate that Israel’s economy is experiencing the sharpest slowdown among wealthy countries today, with its gross domestic product contracting 4.1 percent since October 7. Rating agencies such as Fitch have lowered Israel’s credit score, assessing that military spending will increase the country’s deficit. Adding an expanded campaign in Lebanon to the ongoing one in Gaza would considerably exacerbate the strain on Israel’s economy.

Related:

[09-26-2024] US Gives Israel $8.7 Billion in Military Aid for Operations in Gaza and Lebanon

The ministry said in a statement that its director-general, Maj. Gen. Eyal Zamir, concluded negotiations in Washington to secure the military aid. It said the package includes $3.5 billion for “essential wartime procurement” that has already been sent to Israel and a $5.2 billion grant for air defenses.

The ministry said the $5.2 billion for air defenses “will significantly strengthen critical systems such as Iron Dome and David’s Sling while supporting the continued development of an advanced high-powered laser defense system currently in its later stages of development.”

So far, the US has not announced the details of the $8.7 billion weapons package, but the funds are likely being pulled from the $17 billion in new military aid for Israel that was included in the $95 billion foreign military aid bill President Biden signed into law back in April. Israel also receives $3.8 billion from the US in annual military aid

[08-24-2024] With $20 Billion Weapons Deal, U.S. Aims to Help Israel and Deter Iran

Almost none of the arms — which also include tank ammunition, tactical vehicles and mortars — are expected to be delivered to Israel for several years at least.

Up to 50 new F-15 IA jets, and upgrade kits for the 25 F-15 I aircraft that Israel already has, are at the core of the $18.8 billion purchase that Congress was first informally notified about in January. The deal was initially delayed by the top Democrats on the House and Senate foreign affairs committees amid concerns about Israel’s tactics in Gaza, but they agreed in June to let it move forward.
The package with Boeing Corp. also covers an array of equipment for the jets — including 120 engines, 75 radars, 320 missile launchers and 180 GPS devices, among other technology. None of it is expected to be delivered until 2029.

Israel plans to buy 32,739 tank cartridges of 120-millimeter rounds from military contractors General Dynamics and Northrop Grumman for an estimated $774.1 million. The sale would also include various tank munitions, canisters and support services, with deliveries beginning in 2027.

The sale of eight-ton cargo trucks is valued at $583 million. The trucks, which would be delivered starting in 2026, are used for freight transport, unit resupply and other tactical missions to support combat units.

Israel plans to buy 50,400 120-millimeter high-explosive cartridges for mortars, a kind of portable cannon. The sale, totaling $61 million, includes 400 rounds from an earlier proposed sale from General Dynamic Ordnance. They will be delivered starting in 2026.

The U.S. has approved the sale of 30 medium-range, air-to-air missiles from the AIM-120 C-8 series. The missiles are considered “a key aerial combat capability used to defend against airborne threats, such as the missile and drone salvo launched at Israel on April 14,” according to a statement from the Defense Security Cooperation Agency.
The notification did not say when the missiles would be delivered to Israel, and a U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to speak on the record said it is possible that some could be sent in the next year, based on production capacity. They are being sold to Israel by RTX Corp. for $102.5 million.
The AIM-120 C-8 series, known as an “AMRAAM” are used by militaries around the world. In Ukraine, AMRAAMs are expected to arm the fleet of F-16 fighter jets that European governments are sending to help Kyiv defend its country from Russia.

Previously:

[08-03-2024] Israel will boost its military industry with the construction of an equipment factory

[07-02-2024] NYT: Israeli Generals, Low on Munitions, Want a Truce in Gaza