Victory Plan (Google Translate)

“We hear the word negotiations from our partners, but the word justice is heard much less often,” Volodymyr Zelensky said yesterday in his speech to the Ukrainian Rada. “Ukraine is open to diplomacy, but honest diplomacy. That is why we have the Peace Formula. It is a guarantee of negotiating without forcing Ukraine to accept injustice. Ukrainians deserve a decent peace,” the Ukrainian president continued in his presentation of the Victory Plan to deputies and other authorities of the country’s political and security apparatus. Kiev’s intentions are clear: to achieve a position of strength in which Ukraine does not have to yield to Russian demands. Nothing indicates that there has been any change in the way of thinking of the Ukrainian leadership, which has always understood justice as something that only the part of the population under its control deserves, without those on the other side of the front and whose territories it aspires to recover having a say in the future of the country.

“We have achieved and are achieving results in battles thanks to our unity. So, please, let us not lose our unity. Let us work together. For the sake of Ukraine. For the sake of Ukraine’s victory,” Zelensky added in his speech. Considering that thousands of Ukrainian citizens are fighting, many of them for several years, against the Armed Forces of Ukraine, any claim to unity must be understood as referring only to that population that remains loyal to Kyiv. That other part of the citizenry in the areas under Russian control not only does not deserve to be heard, but has even been eliminated as a factor to be taken into account. In that sense, none of the proposals put forward by Zelensky have ever been about peace, which would necessarily imply compromise with a part of the population that thinks differently, but about imposing Kyiv’s victory. The new plan is no exception and is also a proposal for victory that is not only over Russia, but also over Donbass and Crimea.

“Among other things, the Victory Plan allows all Ukrainians to unite even more around a common goal. That is why I am now addressing you. May our joint work on the Victory Plan turn into peace for Ukraine as soon as possible. I thank all those who stand with Ukraine. I am proud of all our people. And I believe in Ukraine,” the president wrote in a post on social media, ending with the usual Slava Ukraini, the OUN-UPA chant. However, the plan presented yesterday lacks content for the population and, as the way it has been developed perfectly illustrates, is just a wish list that must be granted primarily by foreign partners. It is therefore logical that the proposal was first presented to Joe Biden, president of Ukraine’s main supplier, then to the leaders of the main powers of the European Union, which today supports the Ukrainian state, and as a last step, to the Parliament, the seat of popular sovereignty.

As expected, Zelensky’s proposal contains no major innovations, but merely presents the conditions that Ukraine hopes to create through war, so it is more a reflection of Kyiv’s wishes than a plan to achieve them. In fact, the way in which the President’s Office hopes to make this proposal a reality can be summed up in two words: military pressure. As the Ukrainian president had already anticipated last week on his trip to Croatia, the first point of the Victory Plan – not a peace plan – concerns NATO. Ukraine is demanding from its partners an invitation to join in the coming months, specifically before the end of the current US legislative session, after which kyiv faces uncertainty even with a victory for Kamala Harris, with whom the relationship seems much more distant than with the current president. The plan “is not just about NATO,” said Mark Rutte, the new secretary general, yesterday, to divert attention from an invitation that the Alliance has not granted at its two previous summits and that is not expected now either, despite speculation about the possibility – uncertain – of a peace agreement for territories plus NATO membership . In his speech, Zelensky admitted that Ukraine will not join NATO while the war lasts, but the country demands a formal invitation. It is the new way of trying to achieve what Kyiv has been trying to achieve for years: a plan that affirms that the decision has been made and a calendar in which a certain date marks Ukraine’s entry into the bloc. Although Rutte confirmed that Zelensky’s plan will be on the table in next week’s negotiations, his speech sounded like a continuation. “Today I cannot point out exactly what the path will be, but I am absolutely confident that, in the future, Ukraine will join us,” he said in a statement whose content is exactly what Ukraine is trying to avoid.

The second point, also predictable, is that of defence, for which Ukraine demands what it has been begging its partners for months: more heavy weapons, lifting of the vetoes on the use of long-range Western equipment on continental Russian territory and participation in the shooting down of Russian missiles. In other words, Ukraine seeks to extend the war to Russian territory while its allies help to mitigate the foreseeable increase in the use of missiles in the event that the bombing of strategic military targets in the Russian Federation begins. To achieve this, despite the fact that the United States has already denied the possibility, Ukraine appeals to George W. Bush’s axis of evil – Russia, Iran and North Korea – and especially to the example of the Middle East and the actions of Washington and its European allies in the shooting down of Iranian missiles. To Kiev’s chagrin, its American allies understand the differences between the two situations. Participating directly in the defence of its Israeli ally against Iran does not imply increasing the risk of direct confrontation with a nuclear power. Despite Ukraine’s attempt to present its cause as central to international relations at the moment, its position will not be able to compete with that of Israel, a much more important strategic ally for the United States than Kyiv will ever be.

The third point is also related to the military sphere and, like the previous one, contains classified sections. In this case, Zelensky seeks to define the day after the war with a continental security structure openly designed against Russia, the second continental power and the largest and most populous country. The demand of the Ukrainian president, who insists on implementing his plan in the next three months to end the war “at the latest next year”, is a non-nuclear deterrent located on its territory and which would guarantee the country’s security against future aggressions. “Russia must forever lose control over Ukraine and even lose the desire for that control. This is a guarantee of life for Ukraine. And at the same time, it is a guarantee of peace for Europe,” insisted Zelensky, who seems to propose a massive remilitarization of the country in which missile systems from NATO countries would presumably be installed. The example is reminiscent of the armed and extremely militarized peace on the border between the two Koreas, a scenario that can hardly be described as peace, understood not as the absence of war but of conflict.

Ukraine is not demanding a Marshall Plan in its proposal, as it has done on previous occasions, possibly to avoid being seen as an overly absorbing proxy always waiting for more money. Hence the fourth point, concerning reconstruction and the post-war economy, proposes huge investments, but also compensations. According to The Kyiv Independent yesterday, the proposal “addresses Ukraine’s use of its natural resources, such as uranium, titanium and lithium, which have economic growth potential for Kyiv and the EU. Ukraine offers a special agreement for joint investment and use of these resources with the EU and the US”, a polite way of saying that Kiev intends to put a part of the country’s natural wealth at the service of its partners. The idea is reminiscent of the statements made a few months ago by Senator Lindsey Graham, who said that Ukraine “sits on trillions of dollars in minerals that could be good for our economy”.

The last point of Zelensky’s plan is undoubtedly the most curious. As a contribution to collective security and also as a way of reducing costs, Ukraine proposes, taking advantage of the combat experience of the war, to replace some American units stationed in Europe if that is the will of its partners. Kyiv thus intends to provide a somewhat naive way, given the difficulties it currently faces in replenishing its ranks, so that the United States can withdraw part of its contingent and reduce costs and leave continental security in European hands, specifically Ukrainian ones.

The scant new developments in Zelensky’s plan have meant that reactions have been limited. The proposal is nothing more than a wish list of aspirations from the Ukrainian President’s Office, which aims to achieve its goals by applying military pressure that would require a volume of long-range missiles that its allies are not prepared to provide. Perhaps the most significant aspect of the long-awaited presentation is that, on the same day that Zelensky announced Ukraine’s conditions to the Rada, Chancellor Scholz confirmed to his parliament that, following Ukraine’s suggestion that it would allow Russia to attend a peace summit, Germany is not only willing to talk to Russia, but also to its president.

“Zelensky’s plan for victory is what it is: a completely unrealistic plan, or rather an ultimatum to the Western allies, which is probably designed to prepare society for the inevitability of peace talks and a very painful compromise. The next line of this song is: The West has betrayed us,” wrote yesterday, in an excessively pessimistic way for Ukraine, the Russian opposition journalist Leonid Ragozin, who considers that “the gigantic bubble of surreal delusions, blatant lies and cowardly self-deceptions surrounding this conflict is about to burst.” Meanwhile, as it became clear yesterday, the Ukrainian aspiration is to further escalate the war in the name of, not peace, but victory. Only “coercion” works. Forcing Russia to live by the rules, within the framework of international law, with mandatory responsibility for what it does/says. Other forms of relations with the Russian Federation, especially those of compromise, only encourage escalation and more aggressive forms of the chronic Russian disease known as “domination through violence and murder.” “Stop living in illusions,” wrote Mykhailo Podolyak yesterday. Ukraine only wants to live in its illusions.