Has anyone realized that by disclosing the existence of “US Task Force Ayungin,” Biden admin implicitly recognized Philippines’ sovereignty over a disputed SCS feature?
Washington has never taken a position on SCS territories(but it has in ECS). This is a clear signal to China.*
South China Sea: US troop aid may reassure Philippines but will prod China, analysts say (archived)
The Philippines has said the US task force only offered support – in the form of intelligence and surveillance – and did not directly take part in its resupply missions to BRP Sierra Madre, the retired warship, but analysts suggested that China’s leadership could see it in a different light.
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Zheng said the revelation about the American task force meant the US was likely to be more engaged in the drawn-out maritime conflicts in the region, even suggesting that Washington would “be the first to take part in the command and planning of Philippine maritime activities”.
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Ding Duo, deputy director of the Centre for Oceans Law and Policy at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies in Hainan, said the presence of a special task force showed that Washington and Manila had long cooperated on resupply operations to Second Thomas Shoal.
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“Such support emboldens the Philippines and is not conducive to China and the Philippines managing their differences,” Ding said. “The US involvement has also squeezed the political space for internal coordination and decision-making within the Philippines.”
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He said it was also possible that American troops could be on Philippine ships and involved in front-line action “using a covert or concealed identity to participate in Philippine maritime operations” in future.
He said the US could “only intervene [in South China Sea disputes] in a covert manner and so it took the form of a task force”.
Related:
Chen told the Global Times on Thursday that he believes the Chinese side has long been aware of the existence of such a US task force, which has been training the Philippines’ navy and coast guard forces and providing planning and guidance to the Philippines’ maritime operations.
Austin’s visit could encourage the Philippines to make bolder moves that could escalate tensions, and the publicly announced existence of US forces supporting the Philippines also means that the US’ grey zone tactics in using the Philippines to contain China is becoming more open, Chen said.
However, it is unlikely that the US forces will enter a direct confrontation with China, as the situation could spiral out of control and become too costly for the US, Chen said, noting that Washington will likely continue to encourage Manila to stir up more trouble.
Marcos Jr. gifts deeper military presence to US
Austin: US troops deployed to Task Force Ayungin
Chinese Defense Minister Rejects Talks With US Over Taiwan Support
What’s Really Going On In the South China Sea Between the Philippines and China:
The South China Sea Arbitration did not rule on sovereignty, and China does not recognize it because the Arbitral Tribunal lacked jurisdiction. “The Arbitral Tribunal violated the principle of state consent, exercised its jurisdiction ultra vires and rendered an award in disregard of the law. This is a grave violation of UNCLOS and general international law, Wang said.” The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) is an international treaty that establishes a legal framework for all marine and maritime activities. The Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) is not an agency of the United Nations. The PCA rents space in the same building as the UN’s International Court of Justice. A Congressional Research Service report, dated August 2023, stated that the U.S. has not declared its position regarding sovereignty over any of the geographical elements that comprise the South China Sea.
*Why Should We Care About America’s Indo-Pacific Allies?, May 10, 2024:
Yeah, so the difference is that we don’t recognize the territorial claims that the Philippines has, even though those claims are in the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines. And the ones that are in question in the present time are those at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal. And so those islands are a contested space, so we don’t recognize the sovereignty of them, nor do we recognize any country’s administrative control over them, unlike the Senkaku’s case with Japan.
However, what we were clear in our declarations regarding the Philippines is that we extend our treaty with the Philippines to include Philippine military personnel wherever they might be. So on Second Thomas Shoal, there’s an old World War II era tank landing ship that we gave to the Philippines at some point in time that they deliberately ran aground and they keep people on that rusting hulk. And they have to be resupplied and they have to be traded out over time.
And so that’s why you have all these resupply missions going between the Philippine mainland and the Second Thomas Shoal. And that’s where our declaration, I believe, has prevented China from sinking any of those ships that are doing the resupply. They are harassing them for sure.
Harry B. Harris Jr., former commander of INDOPACOM
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