India is losing Bangladesh to China and Pakistan, and it could get worse
by Derek J Grossman, RAND
Beijing has further sought to develop numerous Bangladeshi ports, including Chittagong, Mongla, and Sonadia ports, to achieve a maritime presence in the Bay of Bengal. Enhanced access to any or all of these ports could substantially add to Beijing’s “string of pearls” strategy to hem in India in the Indian Ocean.
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Pakistan’s support to Bangladesh is likely to only strengthen, based in part on mutual antipathy toward India, but also their growing Islamist connections and robust strategic ties to China. According to one recent commentary, India should be wary of the revival of a West Pakistan-East Pakistan axis. Although highly exaggerated, the piece nevertheless is probably reflective of how New Delhi, for the first time since the birth of Bangladesh out of East Pakistan in 1971, has to once again worry about the prospects of dealing with three separate fronts: Pakistan, Bangladesh, and China.
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If India-Bangladesh relations unravel, then the United States will be negatively impacted as well. Escalating tensions that risk war between India and Bangladesh, potentially involving China or Pakistan, would be a very unwelcome development as Washington tries to maintain focus on the eastern side of the Indo-Pacific to deter conflicts in the Taiwan Strait, East China Sea, South China Sea, and on the Korean peninsula. Even sustained tensions would detract American attention from its preferred subregion of the Indo-Pacific.
At a minimum, China’s expanding footprint in Bangladesh will increasingly challenge Washington’s desire to maintain a “free and open” region, especially if Dhaka provides additional port access in the Bay of Bengal.
Maybe you shouldn’t have cheered on regime change in Bangladesh? /s
Related:
The US has been interested in building a naval and air station on Bangladesh’s Saint Martin Island. China is investing more heavily in Bangladesh’s military assets and ports. India has plans to strengthen the airfields on its eastern seaboard and in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands
Bangladesh mission in India attacked: Why are ties in freefall? (Grossman):
Observer Research Foundation’s Foreign Contributions: US State Department, RAND Corporation, CRDF Global, MacArthur Foundation, UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, US Department of the Treasury, Microsoft, Qualcomm, Ministry of Finance (Japan), Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, etc.
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