Could we win a war in China? Forcing Beijing to escalate could be in our interests (archived)

Instead, the US must pursue a role as “cornerstone balancer” in International Relations terminology, the central linchpin of a vast multinational alliance which, when combined, will outweigh China’s military might. Rattling through the list of potential allies, Colby observes that Japan is central, and India, South Korea, the Philippines and Australia highly desirable, along with the militarily insignificant but geographically useful island nations of the Pacific. Other countries, such as Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand, should be armed so that they can mount a solid defence of their own territory, without the US extending them a security guarantee it will find itself unable to fulfil. 

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With recapture out of the question, the American focus must be one of denial: denying China the ability to seize Taiwan, and preferably, dissuading it from even attempting it. Colby suggests that the US and its allies “seek to disable or destroy Chinese transport ships and aircraft before they left Chinese ports or airstrips,” to “try to obstruct key ports; neutralize key elements of Chinese command and control and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance networks; or attack other critical enablers, including other targets on the Chinese mainland, so that surviving assets were more vulnerable to interdiction when they entered the Taiwan Strait” — and then disabling or destroying any ships that made it through.

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China must be provoked into initiating any escalation of the conflict, so that it will always appear the aggressor; it must be permitted to strike as indiscriminately as possible (Colby urges the US not to provide potential civilian targets with air defences, reasoning that collateral damage will whip up the public anger against China necessary to winning a war); at every stage, China must be manoeuvred into situations where it is forced to escalate the conflict and so lose world sympathy, or back down.

Related:

What’s Really Going On In the South China Sea Between the Philippines and China

The Philippines, has succeeded in garnering support from Western countries through military assistance, funds to upgrade military bases and infrastructure, modernize the Armed Forces of the Philippines, defense agreements with at least 18 countries (minilateralism), joint military exercises in the South China Sea, and the addition of four new EDCA (under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, American military personnel, planes, and ships may station themselves periodically in the Philippines at predetermined places) sites—three in north Luzon facing Taiwan and one in Palawan facing the South China Sea. China sees this “coalition of the willing” as undermining “regional security and peace.”  The Philippines should seek détente with China and practicequiet diplomacy, as their “transparency initiative” has only escalated tensions in the South China Sea, instead of risking World War III.