A Tale of Two Ports: A Potential Shift in Indian Ocean Maritime Politics? (archived)

A mere 70 kilometres away is the Gwadar Port in Pakistan, which is often cited as a major factor behind India’s interest in Chabahar. Gwadar is of immense importance to both China and Pakistan as one of the critical projects in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the only deep-sea port in the country.

Despite its strategic importance, the port city has been shrouded in controversy due to violence stemming from political instability in its surrounding region, as well as demands to mitigate Chinese activity in the port threatening local livelihoods. A rise in separatist violence in the Balochistan province over the past few months has spilled over into multiple instances of attacks on Chinese workers involved in the development and operation of Gwadar Port. Most recently, a foiled attack led to the death of eight militants.

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India’s investment in Chabahar is often dubbed as a counter to China’s presence in Gwadar and a mechanism for the South Asian power to project power in its naval neighborhood. An early version of the India-Iran agreement over the development of the port came into being in 2018 but remained fairly local in ambition, which resulted in the U.S. taking a milder approach and granting a sanction waiver to India specifically for this project.

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However, the newer agreement plans to link the port with the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), connecting the IOR region with Russia, which seems to have ruffled some feathers in Washington.

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If India were to continue on this path to seeking more autonomy in its neighborhood, in light of the rising costs for China operating in Pakistan, we could be seeing the emergence of a new security calculus in the Indian Ocean Region.

Related:

Gwadar Port, CPEC: Hot spots where war may break out or escalate in 2025: Balochistan

BLA among main perpetrators of terror in 2024

Meanwhile, attacks by various outlawed Baloch insurgent groups, primarily the BLA and the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF), saw a staggering 119 per cent increase, accounting for 171 incidents in Balochistan.

BLA: US Proxies in Balochistan document

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[11-26-2024] Sources for the Indian Ocean: Bay of Bengal & Strait of Malacca