Arakan Army’s Victory 2.0 in Myanmar: A New Order for Rakhine?

The Arakan Army’s recent victories in Rakhine have significant implications for the state and the country.

On 21 December 2024, the Arakan Army (AA) seized the Myanmar military’s Western Command in Ann Township in Rakhine State. The Western Command was the military’s second regional command to fall into the Ethnic Armed Organisation’s (EAO) hands in 2024. The Myanmar military lost the Northeastern Command in Lashio to the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) in August 2024. The AA’s capture of the Western Command and 14 townships in Rakhine State may well constitute a “Victory 2.0” for the AA and its administrative arm, the United Arakan League (ULA). This marks a significant shift in the dynamics of the country’s civil war.

The AA has steadily expanded its power projection since its inception in 2009 in Laiza in Kachin State, eventually establishing a significant foothold in Rakhine, a period now seen as the AA’s “Success 1.0.” As the military body responsible for defence, security, and military operations across Rakhine State, Southern Chin State, the Myanmar-Bangladesh border and parts of the Myanmar-India border, the loss of the Western Command is consequential. Furthermore, the Western Command has played a critical role in securing China’s major investments and India’s Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project in Rakhine State. Its capture by the ULA/ AA could have far-reaching implications for the administration of Rakhine State and the future of these key projects.

…

Rakhine state, which is rich in natural resources and serves as a geopolitical gateway for China by providing an alternative to the Strait of Malacca, offers China and other nations a safer, faster, and more efficient trade route. The region is currently undergoing two pivotal transformations. The first is a profound shift in its political, economic, and social structures. The previous governance, economy, and social systems are unlikely to return, even if negotiations between the ULA/ AA and the State Administration Council (SAC) military regime materialise. The ULA/ AA’s vision has begun to redefine administration, security, and society, introducing a new order focused on wartime governance. The ULA/AA’s Arakan Dream, or “The Way of Rakhita“, offers a revolutionary approach that could reshape the relationship between the state, market, and society in Rakhine.

This article by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (donors, pp. 33-37) was one of Brian’s sources from his video “US Greenland-Panama Ambitions Aimed at War with Russia-China.” In it, they talk about the U.S. blockading China. They also mention striking the Sino-Myanmar pipelines. The US won’t have to strike the Sino-Myanmar pipelines now that their proxies have taken over Rakhine State.

Related:

Myanmar–China Oil and Gas Pipelines

The pipeline project is widely cited as China’s solution to the so-called ‘Malacca Dilemma’, as the Malacca Strait could be a choke point for China, with 80% of its oil imports passing through it. However, the oil and gas transported by the pipeline account for only a marginal share of China’s total imports. It is also important to note that the pipelines do not supply only China; they also provide gas to four offtake stations in Myanmar, enabling the establishment of new power plants connected to Myanmar’s national grid. The payments from the pipeline project are also a very significant source of revenue for Myanmar’s central government.

For more information on Myanmar, see this document, which includes more previous updates and video clips. For information on China’s “Malacca Dilemma,” see this document.

Institute for Strategy and Policy – Myanmar (ISP – Myanmar): 10 Chinese Projects in Rakhine State Under AA’s Control

According to Devex, ISP – Myanmar has received two grants from Open Society Foundations.

Partners – Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (Konrad Adenauer Foundation)

See page 2 for more on Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung.