Three years ago, the most powerful political families in the Philippines joined hands to secure the nation’s biggest election victory in four decades. Now they are locked in a feud that threatens to derail one of Asia’s economic growth stars.
In dramatic events on Tuesday, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s government arrested and deported his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte to face the International Criminal Court in The Hague. The move came just over a month after the impeachment of his daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, by allies of Marcos. A Senate trial, which would determine whether she gets removed from office, is scheduled to begin in July.
Sara Duterte, left, with Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in 2022. Photographer: Ezra Acayan/Getty Images
The push by Marcos to sideline his main political opponents marks a gamble that could easily backfire, starting with legislative elections in May that will determine how much he can accomplish in the final three years of his term. The Dutertes still hold clout, with Sara a top candidate in polls to win the next presidential vote in 2028.
Just prior to his arrest at the Manila airport, the elder Duterte was regaled by thousands of adoring supporters at a Hong Kong stadium, showing the enduring appeal of a brash politician frequently compared to Donald Trump. And while Marcos also remains popular, his approval ratings have declined in part due to stubbornly high inflation.
“If something bad happens to the economy, then sympathy might shift to the Dutertes,” said Bob Herrera-Lim, managing director of Teneo, a risk consultancy. “For the Marcoses, this is a calculated risk to eliminate the Dutertes as their primary opponent.”
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Marcos has sought stronger ties with the US to confront Beijing in the disputed South China Sea — a sharp shift from Duterte’s China-friendly foreign policy. The Philippines has clashed frequently with China under Marcos, who has allowed the US to expand its military presence in the nation.
A former mayor of Davao City in the southern island of Mindanao, Duterte is known for his brash style of governance and expletive-laced rhetoric, and had defied criticisms from the West during his six-year term as president that ended in 2022. That earned him huge public support, which he retained even as he implemented the brutal anti-drug crackdown that led to his arrest on Tuesday.
“Duterte’s arrest is the most dramatic escalation yet in his feud with his ex-ally Marcos,” said Dereck Aw, a senior analyst at Control Risk.
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His daughter Sara criticized the move, arguing it “shows the world that this government is willing to abandon its own citizen and betray the very essence of our sovereignty and national dignity.”
“Today, our own government has surrendered a Filipino citizen — even a former President at that — to foreign powers,” she said in a statement. “This is a blatant affront to our sovereignty and an insult to every Filipino who believes in our nation’s independence.”
Sara Duterte was impeached by Marcos’ allies in the House of Representatives last month on charges that she had plotted to kill Marcos and misused public funds — accusations she has denied.
The absence of any immediate public backlash against Duterte’s detention could give the Marcos administration a reason to push for Sara’s ouster, according to Herrera-Lim from Teneo.
“It increases the probability that the government will try to exert pressure on senators to convict Sara Duterte,” he said.
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“Shifts in power and the end of the Marcos-Duterte alliance left him vulnerable,” Phil Robertson, director at Asia Human Rights and Labour Advocates, said of the former president. “And he was apparently the last one to realize it.”
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