Europe Hatches Plans for Ukraine Peacekeepers Without U.S.

Western allies are trying to hash out a bold European idea: sending 10,000 to 30,000 troops to Ukraine to help enforce any eventual peace deal with Russia.

…

As things stand, the chance of this force ever heading to Ukraine is a long shot, says Bence Németh, a defense expert at King’s College London. European leaders say they will only send troops if there is a lasting peace in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has so far ruled out signing a peace deal that includes Western forces in Ukraine. 

But there may be ways around Russia’s refusal to have a peacekeeping force in Ukraine, says Németh, such as including troops that Russia sees as friendly—from China or India, for example.

Crucially, the “coalition of the willing” also wants a commitment from the U.S. that it will intervene if Russia breaks the terms of the peace. The specific ask that Europe will make for an American insurance policy is still being fleshed out, officials say. However, it would likely include asking at the very least for logistical support, air-defense capabilities and intelligence gathering to help monitor Russian forces, according to European officials.

It would also require clearly stated U.S. political backing for the European deployment, said Camille Grand, a former senior NATO official now at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

President Trump so far hasn’t committed to this. In a White House meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Trump said that a deal to give the U.S. preferential access to minerals in Ukraine would be enough of a security guarantee to deter Putin from re-invading Ukraine. Kyiv and European capitals disagree. 

…

For European allies, a large force committed to Ukraine could drain vital NATO resources from across the rest of the European front line with Russia, in particular Finland and the Baltics. It would also be potentially a decadeslong commitment that could prove hugely expensive. 

The exercise shines a light on Europe’s military weakness after decades of cuts to defense spending following the end of the Cold War. Countries like Britain, France and Germany are slowly ramping up defense spending, but the process will take years. 

…

U.K. officials are hopeful that other nations will join this force over time. In addition to European countries, Canada and Japan have indicated a willingness to play a role. The force wouldn’t be part of NATO and may require its own headquarters and command structure. 

…

French and British officials have ruled out the idea of using a deployment as a tripwire force that would man the border between Russian-occupied Ukraine and the rest of Ukraine. They would be more likely to adopt roles like ensuring air and maritime security and protecting key infrastructure such as airports. Some officials say the deployed troops could be involved in training Ukrainian troops on the ground. 

Previously:

Here’s the “Security Backstop” Requested by the “Coalition of the Willing”