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Russia is raining hellfire on Ukraine
Ukraine still has a fighting chance against drones and cruise missiles. But the outlook against ballistic threats is bleaker. Only a handful of countries have systems that can counter such fast and destructive weapons. In the Western world, the American Patriot system has an effective monopoly on the ballistic air-defence business. Ukraine now has at least eight Patriot batteries, though at any given time some are damaged and under repair.
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The problem is that Ukraine has slipped from being a priority for the Biden administration to just one of only many potential customers competing for limited production under Donald Trump. Lockheed Martin, which builds the Patriot systems and their PAC-3s, is increasing its output to 650 missiles per year. But this is about 100 fewer than projected Russian production of ballistic missiles, with a Ukraine government source estimating the Kremlin has a 500-missile stockpile. It usually takes two PAC-3 interceptor missiles to intercept a Russian ballistic missile.
For China hawks in the Trump administration, a Patriot system or missile sent to Ukraine is one fewer that can be sent to the Pacific theatre. Even the most Ukraine-friendly administration-which this one is not-would find it hard to keep pace with the persistent Russian threat. Ukraine has asked for the right to produce its own version of the PAC-3 under licence, but knows that is unlikely. Production is due to begin in Germany, but only at the end of 2026. There are other joint-production projects in the pipeline too. But in all cases the breakthrough point is at least a year away.
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Europe May Use Fighter Jets to Down Russian Drones, Missiles in Ukraine
Ms. Cat’s Chronicles 