The “Donbas Rental” Deal: An Act of Strategic “Two-Face Diplomacy“
The proposed 28-point peace plan, suggesting Russia “rent” the Donbas region from Ukraine, is not a viable peace proposal, but a deliberate act of “Two-Face Diplomacy” rooted in the national strategy of “Strategic Sequencing.”
1. The Constitutional Deadlock
The deal is a constitutional non-starter for both nations, a fact fully known to the U.S. policy and intelligence communities (CEPA, Wilson Center):
• For Russia: The deal is illegal. Following the 2022 annexation, Russia’s Constitution was amended to include the four oblasts as full federal subjects. Ceding control for a “rental fee” directly violates the Inviolability Clause (Article 4/2020 amendments), exposing any Russian official who signs it to treason charges.
• For Ukraine: The deal is politically impossible. Changing the nation’s legal foundation to permit territorial loss is politically untenable for President Zelenskyy, requiring massive constitutional change only justifiable by outright military defeat.
2. The Strategic Purpose: Sequencing and Blame Management
The proposal’s true function is laid bare by the U.S. strategic framework advocated by the Marathon Initiative:
• Strategic Sequencing: The U.S. is “kicking the can down the road” to achieve a strategic pause. This pause allows the U.S. to convert the active Ukraine war—a drain on resources—into a frozen conflict managed by Europe. This frees Washington to focus its military and industrial capacity on the long-term competition with China in the Indo-Pacific.
• Managing Costs and Blame: The U.S. proposal is designed to manage escalation and cut costs. The public face upholds the value of sovereignty by proposing Ukraine retain legal ownership. However, the pragmatic face ensures that since the deal is constitutionally unacceptable to Russia, Moscow is blamed for the failure, justifying the continuation of sanctions without demanding a further, costly military commitment from the U.S.
By promoting this legally impossible deal, the U.S. achieves its goal: securing a difficult, temporary ceasefire and setting the most unfavorable concession ceiling for Ukraine, while ensuring it can pivot resources in the global strategic competition.
Sources:
Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) – CEPA Front
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (Wilson Center) – Wilson Center Front
Constitution of the Russian Federation (Article 4, Paragraph 3)
Constitution of the Russian Federation (Article 67, Paragraph 2.1 (Added in 2020 Amendments)
Elbridge Colby’s “Division of Labor” (“Strategic Sequencing, Revisited”)
The Heritage Foundation report cites Mitchell’s book The Grand Strategy of the Hapsburg Empire, along with the papers “Strategic Sequencing: How Great Powers Avoid Multi-Front War,” “Mastering the Multi-Front Challenge: The Diplomatic Strategies of Metternich and Bismarck,” and “Getting Strategic Deprioritization Right.” These papers were written for the Office of Net Assessment, a division within the Department of Defense that specialized in long-term strategic planning. The office assessed how the U.S. military compared to other nations and examined potential future threats and opportunities to inform defense strategies. Essentially, it functioned as the Pentagon’s think tank for overarching strategic considerations.
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