The ‘Trump Doctrine’ is shaped by Elbridge Colby’s ‘Strategy of Denial’

Andrew Korybko

As Michael McNair notes in his article about “The Bridge at the Center of the Pentagon”, the US’ reassertion of influence over the Western Hemisphere “is a prerequisite for sustaining power projection into the Indo-Pacific” for the abovementioned purpose, which aligns with Elbridge Colby’s framework. He’s the Under Secretary of War for Policy and is actively implementing the ideas that he shared in his 2021 book titled “The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict”.

McNair compellingly argues that the new National Security Strategy has Colby’s fingerprints all over it, which makes sense given his position, and explains how Trump 2.0’s grand strategy is shaped by his work. As he wrote, “Colby’s core claim is that U.S. strategy in the 21st century should aim to prevent China from achieving hegemony over Asia. The rest of his framework follows from that point.” This is precisely what the ‘Trump Doctrine’, which has recently become much clearer, aims to achieve.

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In sum, the US’ grand strategy as encapsulated by the Colby-influenced ‘Trump Doctrine’ is to coerce China into subordination, which it aims to achieve through a Reagan-esque military buildup with its AUKUS+ allies as well as entering into positions to deny it access to energy and markets. The end goal is to restore the US’ unipolar hegemony, first over the Americas and then the Global West (EU, the Gulf, and Indo-Pacific allies), the Global South, and finally China, with Russia relegated to a junior partner.