Translation by Copilot.
Original by Margherita Furlan — translated by Ismaele (and reproduced by Gustavo Horta)
The War Against Iran: Anatomy of a Conflict Reshaping the World Order
Today I’m sharing my translation of an article by Margherita Furlan, originally written in Italian and published on AntiMafiaDuemila.com on Thursday, March 5, 2026.
Preface
Wars don’t erupt on their own; they are built.
When, on February 28, 2026 at 7:30 a.m. (Italy time), the first missiles of Operation Roaring Lion struck Tehran, Isfahan, Karaj, and Qom, the world did not witness the beginning of a crisis — it witnessed the detonation of a bomb that had been assembled over years of mounting pressure.The joint U.S.–Israeli attack came precisely when diplomacy was finally producing concrete results: the day before, Oman’s foreign minister announced that Iran was ready to give up its stockpile of enriched uranium and that an agreement was “within reach.” Three rounds of negotiations in Geneva, with the IAEA as technical observer, had opened a real space for progress.
This war is not about Iran’s nuclear program.
It is about the future of the world order.
The Real Motives: Five Layers of Interpretation
- Control of Energy Routes as the Foundation of Hegemony
To understand the war, start with a basic fact: the United States is the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas — but its “energy dominance” rests on a far more fragile base than official rhetoric suggests.
U.S. production numbers look impressive, but deep cracks are forming:
- Shale fields are maturing; extraction is becoming more expensive.
- Oil production growth fell below 1% in 2026.
- Some analysts believe U.S. oil output is plateauing and may decline by the early 2030s.
- Producers complain that prices aren’t high enough to justify expansion.
- Trump wants low prices for consumers and high prices for producers — an impossible contradiction.
This is where war enters the equation.
If you can’t increase production forever, you must control who can — and under what conditions. If you can’t compete with discounted Iranian oil to China or Russian gas via pipeline, you must physically remove those competitors.The chokepoints:
- Strait of Hormuz — 20% of global oil and LNG
- Suez Canal
- Red Sea, controlled by Iran‑aligned Houthis
Neutralizing Iran means neutralizing all three — and creating conditions to replace those flows with American LNG.
The U.S.–EU $750 billion Energy Pact (2025) locked Europe into buying American LNG, oil, and nuclear fuel through 2028. U.S. energy giants expanded across Europe. Defense spending and arms purchases rose in parallel.
Energy and weapons: one value chain.Recent U.S. operations form a coherent arc: Venezuela, Nigeria, Greenland, Iran — all major energy zones. The goal is to plant the American flag wherever substantial reserves exist.
- Dismantling Iran as a Pillar of the Multipolar System
Iran sits at the intersection of four strategic systems:
- The North–South Corridor (INSTC)
A 7,200 km multimodal route linking St. Petersburg to Mumbai via Iran.
It halves transport time and cost compared to Suez.
Destroying or destabilizing it suffocates Russia’s economic lifeline under sanctions.
- The Iran–China Energy Axis
China buys sanctioned Iranian oil at discounts, paying in yuan — outside the petrodollar.
Iran is a live laboratory for de‑dollarizing oil trade.
- The Port of Chabahar
A strategic hub for India, China, and Russia — and crucially outside the Strait of Hormuz.
Attacking Iran undermines the viability of this entire logistical architecture.
- The “Axis of Resistance”
Hezbollah, Hamas, Iraqi militias, Houthis, Syrian allies — a low‑cost, high‑impact network built over 40 years.
The 2026 attack aims to eliminate not just Iran’s conventional forces but the coordination center of this entire system.The goal is not simply to “hit Iran,” but to dismantle its geopolitical role.
- Targeting China and Russia Through Iran
Against China: Cutting Off Vital Energy
- 45% of oil passing through Hormuz goes to Asia, mainly China.
- China imports 72% of its oil; much flows through Hormuz.
- Iranian retaliation damaged Qatar’s LNG facilities — a major supplier to China.
- Maersk rerouted ships around Africa, adding weeks and massive costs.
The message:
- China cannot protect its own energy lifelines.
- Every alternative corridor China builds (Iran, BRI) crosses zones the U.S. can shut down.
This also ties to Taiwan: if the U.S. can block China’s energy in the Gulf, it can do so in the Pacific.
Against Russia: Undermining the INSTC and Energy Hub
- Iran is Russia’s only functioning corridor to the Indian Ocean.
- Russia stores crude in Iran for Asian redistribution.
- Instability hurts infrastructure, logistics, and sanctions‑evasion routes.
Russia benefits from short‑term chaos (higher prices, diverted Western attention), but long‑term risks are severe if Iran collapses.
- Convergence With Netanyahu: Two Agendas, One Operation
Israel’s “Begin Doctrine” (prevent any regional rival from gaining nuclear or conventional parity) reaches its logical conclusion: dismantling an entire state apparatus.
Netanyahu’s long‑term strategy:
- Weaken Hamas
- Weaken Hezbollah
- Remove Assad
- Leave Iran exposed
The Ben Gurion Canal — an Israeli‑controlled alternative to Suez — becomes viable only if:
- Gaza is neutralized
- Iran is neutralized
Israel’s recognition of Somaliland (2025) gives it influence over the African side of Bab el‑Mandeb, completing the security chain needed for the canal.
The U.S. “Peace Council” (Kushner, Witkoff) merges U.S. financial interests, Israeli territorial ambitions, and Gulf security needs.
A secret meeting with Reza Pahlavi suggests regime‑change planning.
- War as an Economic Engine
Defense stocks soared on March 2, 2026:
- Lockheed Martin hit a record high
- Northrop Grumman +6%
- RTX +4.7%
- Palantir +6%
Estimated shareholder gains: $25–30 billion in one day.
The U.S. defense budget:
- $858.9 billion (FY 2025)
- $20.4 billion for munitions replenishment (FY 2026)
- A $50 billion supplemental request underway
The cycle:
- War raises oil prices
- Energy companies profit
- Europe buys more U.S. LNG
- War consumes weapons
- Gulf states buy U.S. defense systems
- Defense stocks rise
- Dollar strengthens
- Treasury bonds find buyers
War is the product. Chaos is the raw material.
Gold: The Silent Weapon of the Multipolar Transition
Dubai — 20% of global physical gold trade — is paralyzed.
Flights canceled. Shipments stuck. Prices in India surged from a discount to parity in 48 hours.Gold hit:
- $5,595/oz (Jan 29, 2026)
- Up 65% in 2025 — best since 1979
BRICS central banks are buying over 1,000 tons per year.
They are planning a new unit of account 40% backed by gold.Italy holds the world’s third‑largest gold reserve (2,452 tons), but:
- 43% is stored in the U.S.
- 6% in the U.K.
- Only 51% in Italy
A sovereignty paradox.
Italy’s Strategic Risks
U.S. Bases in Italy
Italy hosts ~13,000 U.S. troops.
Key sites:
- Sigonella — drone and surveillance hub
- Niscemi — MUOS satellite node
- Aviano — F‑16s and B61 nuclear bombs
- Naples/Gaeta — Sixth Fleet
- Camp Darby — munitions depot
Activity levels and alerts are the highest since the Cold War.
Italy formally authorized “logistical and technical support” — defensive on paper, strategically complicit in practice.
Spain refused similar support.
Could Iranian missiles reach Italy?
Technically possible for Sicily (3,000 km), but unlikely and imprecise.
NATO missile defense provides protection.Energy Vulnerability
Italy is heavily exposed:
- 45% of its LNG comes from Qatar
- 25–30% of its oil from Gulf states
- Ormuz closure threatens both
- Prices already rising sharply
Italy pays the energy cost of a war it did not choose.
70,000 Italians in the Conflict Zone
Evacuations underway.
Thousands of calls to the Foreign Ministry task force.
Troops withdrawn from Qatar and Bahrain.
Strategic Margins: The Real Problem
Italy was not informed of the attack beforehand.
Neither were Germany or France.Europe is outside the strategic decision‑making loop.
Italy is worse off: it provides bases and support without influence.
The Kurdish Card
The CIA is arming Iranian Kurdish forces to open a northern front.
This threatens the territorial integrity of Iran, Iraq, Turkey, and Syria — and risks widening the war dramatically.
Conclusion: Checkmate and Its Paradox
The war meant to stop de‑dollarization is accelerating gold accumulation.
The war meant to isolate Iran is strengthening the Global South’s desire for alternatives.
The war meant to control energy is hurting U.S. allies.
The war meant to show American power is proving that Washington can make any corridor unsafe — which only motivates others to build new ones.Great powers don’t collapse from battlefield defeat.
They collapse when they insist on fighting wars that belong to the past.The checkmate is underway.
But who will deliver it — and to whom — remains the defining question of our time.
Ms. Cat’s Chronicles 