Inflation and interest rates: the US experience

Once again the US Federal Reserve is in a quandary. Does it cut its policy interest rate soon in order to relieve pressure on debt servicing costs for consumers and businesses and perhaps avoid a stagflationary economy (ie low or no growth alongside higher inflation); or does it hold its current interest rate for borrowing in order to make sure inflation falls towards its target of 2% a year?

Inflation and interest rates: the US experience

Nearly 50,000 People in Wisconsin Cast Protest Vote Against Gaza Slaughter in Democratic Primary

Full video

On Tuesday, nearly 50,000 people cast votes for “uninstructed” in the Wisconsin Democratic primary as a way to protest President Biden’s full-throated support for the Israeli slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza.

Nearly 50,000 People in Wisconsin Cast Protest Vote Against Gaza Slaughter in Democratic Primary

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Wisconsin voters approve ban on private election grants as Biden, Trump win primary

Wisconsin’s April 2nd referendums

PH: Compared To China, US Trade, Investment Offers Laughable + More

Compared To China, US Trade, Investment Offers Laughable

On the other hand, the BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) donations of China alone that are reality– Chico River Irrigation Pump, Davao Bucana Bridge, Estrella-Pantaleon and Binondo-Intramuros Bridge, the ongoing Kaliwa Dam Project that would provide 600/mld (million liters per day) to drying Metro-Manila and hundreds other projects– already count billions of dollars, not to mention private investments like DITO Telecoms’ $ 3.9 billion investment in our telecom sector.

Related:

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US economy expanding?

The first estimate of third quarter real GDP growth in the US was released yesterday. It showed the US economy expanded by an annualised rate of 4.9%. The Financial Times called this a “blistering pace that, not for the first time, defied gloomier predictions from economists.” US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen commented that “It’s a good, strong number and it shows an economy that’s doing very well,” and she is “not expecting growth at that pace to continue, but we do have good, solid growth.”

US economy expanding?

Argentina election 2023: what you need to know

The vultures are ready to “make the economy scream” if Javier Milei wins!*

Argentina election 2023: what you need to know

Far-right libertarian Javier Milei is leading the polls ahead of Argentina’s Oct. 22 presidential vote, but it remains a tight race between the top three candidates, three surveys showed.

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Argentina election: from peso to dollar?

But dollarisation would also mean immediate recession and slump. It would have to start with a massive devaluation of the domestic peso monetary base. In a very optimistic scenario, if Argentina received a loan of say $12 billion from the IMF and used $5 billion as a reserve for the banking system and $7 billion to dollarise the monetary base, the domestic peso monetary base would still have to be reduced by nearly 400%. Argentine salaries (then in US dollars) would become among the lowest globally and poverty would rise to unprecedented levels. And Argentina is already in a recession with real GDP expected to drop by around 2% this year. So either way: peso or dollar, Argentine households would pay the price in living standards.

Desperation has driven many Argentines to consider a ‘libertarian, anarcho-capitalist’ as president. If this were to happen, it will be going down another blind alley. Argentina’s capitalist economy will continue to fail.

Just scratching the surface:

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U.S. can ‘certainly’ afford military support to both Israel and Ukraine, meanwhile…

U.S. can ‘certainly’ afford military support to both Israel and Ukraine, Janet Yellen says

“America can certainly afford to stand with Israel and to support Israel’s military needs and we also can and must support Ukraine in its struggle against Russia,” Yellen said, adding that the U.S. economy is doing “extremely well.”

“Inflation has been high and it’s been a concern to households, it’s come down considerably. At the same time, we have about the strongest labor market we’ve seen in 50 years with 3.8% unemployment. And at the same time, America, the Biden administration, has passed legislation that is strengthening our economy in years to come for the medium term.”

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Ticking Time-Bomb: Food Inflation Is Crushing Millions Of Low Income Americans (archived)

And so the debate circles round and round. The US, the “most wealthy nation on the planet”, has a food security problem and is on the verge of an inflationary calamity for millions of low income citizens, all while it spends hundreds of billions of dollars on pointless climate change programs, diversity and inclusion initiatives and proxy wars. Something has to give, and the chances are growing that it will be the American consumer.