Assessment of Nuclear Conflict Risks at the Present Geopolitical Climate

The following is a letter by an anonymous viewer of the neutrality studies youtube channel, published here for the purpose of an open discussion. To send your own letter, please contact the editor.

Dear Pascal,

I thought I would write and to share some thoughts regarding the program you presented, with the two academics from Europe on the critical topic of “nuclear war risk assessment” at the present state of international geopolitical events. The link referencing your program is the following, that I am referring to:

Assessment of Nuclear Conflict Risks at the Present Geopolitical Climate

I slept through those videos. 🤷🏼‍♀️

Invasion Rehearsals? North Korea Slams Joint US, South Korea & Japan Drills as Tensions Escalate

Amid a surge in joint drills carried out last year by the newly-forged trilateral military alliance of the United States, Japan, and South Korea, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) warned that Washington-backed blocs were no longer hiding their “aggressive and chauvinistic nature,” putting the international UN-based order in jeopardy.

Invasion Rehearsals? North Korea Slams Joint US, South Korea & Japan Drills as Tensions Escalate

Philippines to develop islands in South China Sea + More

MANILA (Reuters) – The Philippines will develop islands in the South China Sea that it considers part of its territory to make them more habitable for troops, Manila’s military chief Romeo Brawner told reporters on Monday.

Philippines to develop islands in South China Sea – military chief

Related:

Philippines continues S.China Sea provocations

South China Sea: Philippines defence minister calls out China official for ‘gutter-level talk’, to ramp up military ties

The US-backed NED candidate Willy Lie from the NED-backed party won

YouTube Playlist: InfoOp – SCS

Work in progress: Philippines Game Changer Analysis (PDF)

US policies pushing China, Philippines to brink of conflict

There’s an information war going on in the South China Sea (using embedded journalists, civil society activists, and various US think tanks). The Philippines plans on building a military base, on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, to replace the BRP Sierra Madre (which is about to break apart). Marcos is also re-starting oil exploration, in the Reed Bank, which is part of the disputed territory.

RFK Jr.’s ‘Unconditional’ Support for Israel Is Costing His Campaign for President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s staffers keep resigning

Many antiwar Americans were thrilled when Kennedy announced last spring that he’d be running against Joe Biden in this year’s primaries and that he’d hired former Democratic congressman Dennis Kucinich to be his campaign manager. But Kucinich quit in the middle of October.

RFK Jr.’s ‘Unconditional’ Support for Israel Is Costing His Campaign for President

Taiwan: the technology trade turn

Taiwan has a general election on Saturday. The international media has highlighted the election as an important geopolitical pivot – namely, if the current incumbent government party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), wins the presidency and legislature and continues its call for formal (not just de facto) independence from mainland China, that will mean intensified attacks on Taiwan by Beijing, perhaps leading to military conflict.

Taiwan: the technology trade turn

US policies pushing China, Philippines to brink of conflict

US policies pushing China, Philippines to brink of conflict

The China-Philippines maritime dispute does not, in of itself, reflect anything approaching an existential conflict. It has, however, become an increasingly dangerous proxy and potential flashpoint for underlying China-U.S. tensions in the South China Sea.

FYI, this article is full of disinformation. I’m posting it to point out that there’s an information war going on in the South China Sea (using embedded journalists, civil society activists, and various US think tanks). The Philippines plans on building a military base, on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, to replace the BRP Sierra Madre (which is about to break apart). Marcos is also re-starting oil exploration, in the Reed Bank, which is part of the disputed territory.

Related:

US Shapes Philippines into Southeast Asia’s “Ukraine”

Why the US is Picking a Fight with China in the South China Sea

Beijing rejects tribunal’s ruling in South China Sea case

Paul Reichler, of the law firm Foley Hoag LLP, who who coordinated the Philippines’ legal team, said: “The tribunal’s ruling not only benefits the Philippines, it also benefits other states bordering the South China Sea like Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam. If China’s nine-dash line is invalid as to the Philippines, it is equally invalid to those states and, indeed, the rest of the international community.”

Paul S. Reichler