EDSA1: The Snap Revolution

Off to the side was a more youthful Wolfowitz. He told me that this picture, which had pride of place in his office, was of exactly the moment when the Reaganites had narrowly voted to dump the Ferdinand Marcos dictatorship in the Philippines in 1986 and to recognize the election victory of his opponent Cory Aquino.* “It was the first argument I won,” said Wolfowitz proudly. “I said that if we supported a dictator to keep hold of a base, we would end up losing the base and also deserving to do so. Whereas,” he went on, “by joining the side of ‘people power’ in Manila that year, we helped democracy movements spread through Taiwan and South Korea and even I think into Tiananmen Square in 1989.

* See, for the best account of this upheaval in real time, James Fenton’s book The Snap Revolution.

Related:

*The Snap Revolution (Part One: The Snap Election) | James Fenton

*The Snap Revolution (Part Two: The Narrow Road to the Solid North)

*The Snap Revolution (Part Three: The Snap Revolution)

Previously: PH’s EDSA1 AKA People Power Revolution

Google Document: PH’s EDSA1 AKA People Power Revolution & Chile’s 1988 Plebiscite

Tiananmen Square

(Primer) A Decade of EDCA: US military bases and its expanding war games in the Philippines

The outright re-establishment of US military bases in the country and its relentless and escalating war games on land, sea, and air are flagrant manifestations of US imperialist domination of the Philippines. This further tightens the grip of US imperialism on the Philippine neocolonial state, especially on the puppet Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP).

(Primer) A Decade of EDCA: US military bases and its expanding war games in the Philippines

South China Sea: US troop aid may reassure Philippines but will prod China, analysts say

Has anyone realized that by disclosing the existence of “US Task Force Ayungin,” Biden admin implicitly recognized Philippines’ sovereignty over a disputed SCS feature?

Washington has never taken a position on SCS territories(but it has in ECS). This is a clear signal to China.*

Derek J. Grossman, RAND

South China Sea: US troop aid may reassure Philippines but will prod China, analysts say (archived)

The Philippines has said the US task force only offered support – in the form of intelligence and surveillance – and did not directly take part in its resupply missions to BRP Sierra Madre, the retired warship, but analysts suggested that China’s leadership could see it in a different light.

Zheng said the revelation about the American task force meant the US was likely to be more engaged in the drawn-out maritime conflicts in the region, even suggesting that Washington would “be the first to take part in the command and planning of Philippine maritime activities”.

Ding Duo, deputy director of the Centre for Oceans Law and Policy at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies in Hainan, said the presence of a special task force showed that Washington and Manila had long cooperated on resupply operations to Second Thomas Shoal.

“Such support emboldens the Philippines and is not conducive to China and the Philippines managing their differences,” Ding said. “The US involvement has also squeezed the political space for internal coordination and decision-making within the Philippines.”

He said it was also possible that American troops could be on Philippine ships and involved in front-line action “using a covert or concealed identity to participate in Philippine maritime operations” in future.

He said the US could “only intervene [in South China Sea disputes] in a covert manner and so it took the form of a task force”.

Related:

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PH: American analyst cautions against calling Ayungin incident an accident

Source

MANILA — China’s hostile actions near Ayungin or Second Thomas Shoal on June 17 were “clearly not an accident and misunderstanding,” an American maritime security expert on Sunday said as he urged the Philippine government to be careful in its efforts to de-escalate the situation in the West Philippine Sea.

Former United States Air Force officer Ray Powell said China may see the de-escalation as an opportunity to reposition in its favor, just as it did after the 2012 standoff when it seized Scarborough Shoal, locally called Panatag Shoal and Bajo de Masinloc.

American analyst cautions against calling Ayungin incident an accident

Source

Powell’s not giving up, until he gets his war!

Related:

This Was No “Accident”

Psychologically traumatized victims trapped in abusive relationships will often blame themselves for their abusers’ violence. This was hauntingly expressed in the 1987 Suzanne Vega hit single, “Luka“–sung in the voice of one such domestic violence victim:

I have advocated for Manila to consider requesting formal consultations with the U.S. under Article III of the 1951 Mutual Defense TreatyThe Parties, through their Foreign Ministers or their deputies, will consult together from time to time regarding the implementation of this Treaty and whenever in the opinion of either of them the territorial integrity, political independence or security of either of the Parties is threatened by external armed attack in the Pacific.

It also pulls the rug out from under President Marcos’ eloquent Shangri-La speech, which he gave before a global audience just three weeks ago in Singapore: “In our solid legal footing and through our clear moral ascendancy, we find strength to do whatever it takes to protect our sovereign home to the last square inch, to the last square millimeter … As President, I have sworn this solemn commitment from the very first day that I took office. I do not intend to yield. Filipinos do not yield.”

Previously: Philippines secretly reinforced Sierra Madre and China’s latest actions not an armed attack

See more about the Scarborough Shoal standoff, here: Debunking: Biden to warn Beijing against meddling in South China Sea 🤦🏼‍♀️

See more about Ray Powell, here: Updated 06-12-2024: Philippines Game Changer – Project Myoushu Analysis