The heightening tension between the Philippines and China over the disputed West Philippine Sea (WPS) could impede the entry of foreign investors into the country.
WPS Tension Affecting Entry Of Foreign Investors In PH
Related:
US, European Companies pour Investments to Neutral Malaysia instead of Western-ally Philippines
Manila escalates South China Sea row as it continues trick of ‘playing victim’
According to experts, Marcos’ tough words serve domestic political purposes when he needs to shift Filipinos’ discontent over his administration’s performance on livelihood and the economy, and are also a response to the “support” from countries outside the region, including the US.
…
“The US is the biggest external disturbance to peace and stability in the South China Sea,” Ding said, “without instigation from US, it is more likely that China and the Philippines would manage their differences through negotiation and consultation.”
Related:
The facts and truth about Ren’ai Jiao
Read More »
Renewed talks on a bill that would reinstate a mandatory Reserve Officers Training Corps (ROTC) programme in colleges and universities in the Philippines has sparked debate on whether it would be effective in strengthening the country’s military amid growing tensions in the South China Sea.
South China Sea: Philippines debates boosting war readiness through mandatory military training for students
The Philippine government has not acted upon several concept papers that China submitted almost a year ago that proposed ways to normalize the situation in disputed areas of the South China Sea, a ranking Chinese official said over the weekend.
PH ignored China’s proposals on sea row
Previously:
As a result of the incident, Powell thinks that Manila “has the right to expect a more muscular response from its partners and allies.” After last year’s incidents, both the U.S. and Australia held joint maritime and aerial patrols with Philippine military forces in the South China Sea. The Philippines expects to hold more joint patrols with not only American and Australian forces, but also with countries such as France, Canada and Japan.
…
Yesterday, Philippine President BongBong Marcos vowed that the country would “push back” when its sovereignty was ignored in reference to China’s actions in the region during a speech in Australia. He further stressed that the Philippines’ stance on the South China Sea was guided by its interests, not at the “beck and call” of the United States.
BBM was at the Lowy Institute, a think tank funded by the Australian government, etc.
Related:
Philippines Budgets for a Permanent Base at Second Thomas Shoal
It’s Time to Build Combined Forward Operating Base Sierra Madre
Philippines Game Changer Analysis – Project Myoushu – South China Sea
Is the Philippines becoming a US ‘proxy’ against Beijing in the South China Sea?
‘The ants that get trampled on’
Not everyone agrees with drawing closer to the US, however, and they warn about the Philippines turning into a “proxy” for American interests. The president’s own sister Imee, a senator, told ANC Digital earlier this month that “China will always be our neighbour, we have no fight with them, let’s not get dragged into a fight that’s not our own.”
Anna Rosario Malindog-Uy, director of the pro-China Asian Century Philippines Strategic Studies Institute, wrote in the Manila Times on February 10 that “agreements such as the EDCA, the VFA and the Mutual Defence Treaty have not only cemented the US military presence and influence in the Philippines but also, most importantly, exemplified the Philippines’ dependence on the US in the military and defence sector.”
Teresita Ang See, former president of the Philippine Association for Chinese Studies and currently part of its advisory council, told This Week in Asia: “Filipinos in general condemn China’s action. But many also understand that China’s assertiveness is in response to US, Japanese and Australian provocations and increasing military presence in the Philippines.”
She warned that “we are fighting a proxy war between the US and China and in the end we will be the ants that get trampled upon”.
H/T: Johnsonwkchoi
Related:
Responding to the Catholic Bishops
Philippines counts the cost of tough South China Sea stance against Beijing
Philippines counts the cost of tough South China Sea stance against Beijing
The Philippines has become a laboratory in responding to Beijing on the South China Sea row, taking the most risk but showing inconsistency and underwhelming results thus far. Its predicament explains why other Southeast Asian claimant states remain unlikely to follow its lead. The tepid reaction to Manila’s pitch for an Asean claimants-only Code of Conduct is indicative.
As had happened in the past, lost economic opportunities and further erosion of Manila’s position in the flashpoint, relative to other disputants, may lead to a possible policy reversal in handling the maritime tiff come the 2028 presidential election.
…
Last year, the Philippines began to expose China’s illicit actions in the disputed waters. It inserted reporters in routine patrols and resupply sorties to document interference by the Chinese coastguard and maritime militia ships. The idea is to rally local and international support and impose reputational costs on Beijing. [Project Myoushu AKA Transparency Initiative]
This approach made strides in rousing public backing for Manila’s defence build-up, a stronger alliance with the United States, and a tougher stance against China. However, it also contributed to polarising domestic politics, affecting people-to-people ties and diminishing Chinese economic interest in the Philippines. Meanwhile, Beijing remains unmoved, weathering reputational costs and continuing to wield a capacity for escalation in the South China Sea.
…
During Xi’s visit to Hanoi last December, both sides vowed to upgrade the Kunming-Haiphong rail line. In contrast, Chinese funding for three rail projects discussed during the previous Duterte government is already dead in the water. China is unlikely to become a strong partner for President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr’s Build Better More infrastructure programme.
Losses in the tourism sector have also become evident. In 2019, before the pandemic, China was the Philippines’ fastest-growing tourist market, with more than 1.7 million arrivals, or a 21.1 per cent market share, just behind South Korea. Last year, as countries in Asia raced to benefit from the return of Chinese tourists, the Philippines only welcomed over 260,000 tourists from China, with the market share shrinking to just 4.84 per cent.
Ironically, for all the talk about Duterte’s China policy as appeasement, it was under his watch that the Philippines made the biggest upgrade in infrastructure in the Spratlys since the 1970s. He also invested in modernising the country’s military, procuring modern frigates from South Korea, multirole response vessels from Japan and cruise missiles from India. All these happened while relations with China remained stable.
Another irony is that while Manila celebrates every resupply mission to the Second Thomas Shoal that successfully eluded the Chinese blockade, Vietnam is busy doing substantial reclamation on its Spratly outposts and gearing for a potential second airfield, with reportedly little interference from Beijing. [Bueller?]
These should offer plenty of insights as the strategy of the Philippines over the maritime squabble evolves.
Indonesia’s feared ex-general Prabowo claims victory in presidential election
But the likely victory of Prabowo — an ex-general who was kicked out from the army and subjected to a two-decade ban from the U.S. over human rights violations — raises fears of the world’s third-largest democracy sliding backward into authoritarian rule.
Related:
3 things you should know about Indonesia’s presidential elections
Continuity and its risks
Prabowo is expected to largely continue the policies of President Widodo, or “Jokowi,” as Indonesians call him. President Widodo is not up for reelection as he’s serving his final term.Through his two five-year terms, Indonesia’s economy — Southeast Asia’s largest — has grown at about 5% a year. His infrastructure building, cash and food assistance to the poor and health and education policies have been popular.
Indonesia is the world’s largest producer of nickel, used in making electric vehicle batteries, and Jokowi has barred the export of raw nickel, to help Indonesia move up the value chain from mining to manufacturing.
…
Prabowo is Suharto’s son-in-law. He received training in the 1980s from the U.S. military at Fort Benning, Ga. (now Fort Moore) and Fort Bragg, N.C. (now Fort Liberty).
Indonesia’s presidential election emerges as key battleground in US-China rivalry
Read More »
The following is the Jan. 23, 2024, Congressional Research Service In Focus report, China-Philippines Tensions in the South China Sea.
Report to Congress on China-Philippines Tensions in the South China Sea
I’ll be updating this, soon: Philippines Game Changer – Project Myoushu – South China Sea Analysis. You can find it, here, as well. I just hope that they don’t end up stationing any US troops at the BRP Sierra Madre (see videos, below)!
Related:
Read More »The Philippines and Vietnam agreed on Tuesday to boost cooperation among their coastguards and to prevent untoward incidents in the South China Sea, in an announcement during a state visit by Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.
Philippines, Vietnam seal deals on South China Sea security, rice
Previously:
Ms. Cat’s Chronicles 
You must be logged in to post a comment.