Tag: Conflict escalation
US Navy Aircraft Transits Taiwan Strait, China Responds (+the U.S. is not obligated to defend Taiwan)
US Navy Aircraft Transits Taiwan Strait, China Responds
Read More »The U.S. Navy’s 7th fleet said a P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft transited the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday.
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Around once a month, U.S. military ships or aircraft pass through or above the waterway that separates
democratically governedTaiwan from China – missions that always anger Beijing. China claims sovereignty over the island of Taiwan and says it has jurisdiction over the strait. Taiwan and the United States dispute that, saying the strait is an international waterway.
Trumpism, NATO and the Ukraine war
Trumpism, NATO and the Ukraine war (original)
“Two years ago, General Mark A. Milley, then President Biden’s chief military adviser, suggested that neither Russia nor Ukraine could win the war. A negotiated solution, he argued, was the only path to peace. His comments caused a furor among senior officials. But President-elect Donald J. Trump’s victory is making General Milley’s prediction come true,” wrote The New York Times in an article published last week, part of a growing line of arguments by those who fear that the arrival of the new Republican administration will mean leaving Ukraine to its own devices. These articles, present in all major American and European media, take literally Trump’s desire to end the war and his lack of interest in the situation in Ukraine. This has also been helped by the words of JD Vance, who, from his ignorance of the conflict, has proposed a plan that can only satisfy Russia, or the exalted response of Donald Trump Jr. after the confirmation of the American permission to use Western missiles against targets on the territory of mainland Russia. Sometimes, think-tankers and experts also add Trump’s disdain for NATO or his desire not to rescue member countries that do not meet the minimum investment required by the Alliance in the event of a Russian attack.
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South China Sea: US troop aid may reassure Philippines but will prod China, analysts say
Has anyone realized that by disclosing the existence of “US Task Force Ayungin,” Biden admin implicitly recognized Philippines’ sovereignty over a disputed SCS feature?
Washington has never taken a position on SCS territories(but it has in ECS). This is a clear signal to China.*
South China Sea: US troop aid may reassure Philippines but will prod China, analysts say (archived)
The Philippines has said the US task force only offered support – in the form of intelligence and surveillance – and did not directly take part in its resupply missions to BRP Sierra Madre, the retired warship, but analysts suggested that China’s leadership could see it in a different light.
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Zheng said the revelation about the American task force meant the US was likely to be more engaged in the drawn-out maritime conflicts in the region, even suggesting that Washington would “be the first to take part in the command and planning of Philippine maritime activities”.
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Ding Duo, deputy director of the Centre for Oceans Law and Policy at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies in Hainan, said the presence of a special task force showed that Washington and Manila had long cooperated on resupply operations to Second Thomas Shoal.
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“Such support emboldens the Philippines and is not conducive to China and the Philippines managing their differences,” Ding said. “The US involvement has also squeezed the political space for internal coordination and decision-making within the Philippines.”
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He said it was also possible that American troops could be on Philippine ships and involved in front-line action “using a covert or concealed identity to participate in Philippine maritime operations” in future.
He said the US could “only intervene [in South China Sea disputes] in a covert manner and so it took the form of a task force”.
Related:
Read More »US Foreign Policy vs. China Continues Under Trump
The incoming Trump administration is poised to pick up where the Biden administration has left off on the decades-spanning centerpiece of US foreign policy ‒ the encirclement and containment of China.
US Foreign Policy vs. China Continues Under Trump (archived)
Related:
AFPI: America First Policy Institute
The Walton Family Foundation, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), and a coalition of fishermen’s associations and environmental institutions join forces to promote responsible fishing practices.
China’s A2/AD (ACE Concept/Joint All-Domain Operations)
Philippines’ Aggressive Territorial Claims In South China Sea: A New Threat to Regional Stability
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has appointed a new Navy chief (Rear Admiral Jose Ma. Ambrosio Ezpeleta) amid tensions in the South China Sea, which include a number of maritime drills which are perceived as provocations by Beijing. One such military exercise earlier this month, for instance, included drills to simulate seizing an island in the disputed South China Sea. Last month Manila held military exercises in the same Sea together with Canada, Japan, and the United States, as part of Exercise Sama Sama 2024. The Philippines are also officially expanding their maritime claims. These developments are all connected.
Philippines’ Aggressive Territorial Claims In South China Sea: A New Threat to Regional Stability (archived)
Related:
What’s Really Going On In the South China Sea Between the Philippines and China
New U.S. strategy towards ASEAN: caution, info-colonialism! (See commentary and notes)
The implementation of yet another U.S. initiative may allow it to interfere in the information policy of ASEAN and control the cyberspace of all of Southeast Asia.
Related:
This reminds me of the tech camps that were held in Ukraine before the Euromaidan. Anyone who has been following me for a while knows where that led to. Except, replace China with Russia.
Read More »Greenlighting deep strikes inside Russia is all risk, no reward
Greenlighting deep strikes inside Russia is all risk, no reward
“The Biden administration’s decision to allow Ukraine to use longer-range ATACMS to launch strikes deep inside of Russia is strategically unwise and operationally unnecessary. The move will not meaningfully improve Ukraine’s military position, but it will intensify U.S. and NATO entanglement in the conflict and worsen the risk of Russian escalation—including possible retaliation on U.S. or European targets.
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Trump Probably Really Does Appreciate Two Points From Zelensky’s “Victory Plan”
The Financial Times reported that “Two of the ideas were laid out in Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s ‘victory plan’ with Trump specifically in mind”, with these being the proposal for Ukraine’s partners to extract its resource wealth and Ukraine’s offer to replace some US troops stationed in Europe. Trump probably really does appreciate these two points since they align with his interests. The first would help him recoup some of the US’ investment in Ukraine while the second could facilitate his “Pivot (back) to Asia”.
As a businessman, Trump doesn’t want his country to lose out on promising business opportunities in Ukraine after investing several hundred billion dollars there, hence why he’s unlikely to abandon his predecessor’s proxy war completely even though he’s much more likely to try to reach a deal. Senator Lindsey Graham estimated over the summer that Ukraine has $10-12 trillion worth of critical minerals under its soil. Even if it “only” has $1 trillion, then it’s still attractive enough to catch Trump’s attention.
Trump Probably Really Does Appreciate Two Points From Zelensky’s “Victory Plan”
So why does he want to risk business with China? 🤷🏼♀️
The Trump Administration: From “No War Hawks” to ALL War Hawks
Brian Berletic, November 13 2024
In the weeks leading up to the 2024 US presidential election, Americans and many around the world invested hope that former-president and now President-elect Donald Trump would grind America’s wars abroad to a halt and instead invest in the United States itself.
The Trump Administration: From “No War Hawks” to ALL War Hawks
Ms. Cat’s Chronicles 
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