Inflation and interest rates: the US experience

Once again the US Federal Reserve is in a quandary. Does it cut its policy interest rate soon in order to relieve pressure on debt servicing costs for consumers and businesses and perhaps avoid a stagflationary economy (ie low or no growth alongside higher inflation); or does it hold its current interest rate for borrowing in order to make sure inflation falls towards its target of 2% a year?

Inflation and interest rates: the US experience

US economy expanding?

The first estimate of third quarter real GDP growth in the US was released yesterday. It showed the US economy expanded by an annualised rate of 4.9%. The Financial Times called this a “blistering pace that, not for the first time, defied gloomier predictions from economists.” US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen commented that “It’s a good, strong number and it shows an economy that’s doing very well,” and she is “not expecting growth at that pace to continue, but we do have good, solid growth.”

US economy expanding?

The Era Of Cheap Oil Has Come To An End

In its latest monthly report, OPEC revealed it had yet again failed to produce as much oil as it agreed to produce the last time it discussed output. And it wasn’t by a few thousand barrels per day, either. The shortfall was some 1.8 million barrels daily, but more importantly, that sort of undershooting of its own target has become a regular thing for the cartel. Meanwhile, the United States federal government needs to buy some oil for its strategic petroleum reserve after releasing close to 200 million barrels from it this year as a way of countering fuel price inflation. Yet U.S. drillers are not in a rush to boost production. On the contrary, it seems production growth has lost its place among these companies’ top priorities.

The Era Of Cheap Oil Has Come To An End

Previously:

U.S. Begins SPR Repurchase Program As Oil Prices Crash

China’s Reported Pause Of Russian Oil Imports Ahead Of The West’s Price Cap Is Revealing 🤨

Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that some Chinese buyers have allegedly paused their import of Russian oil ahead of the West’s looming price cap on that resource, which if true would be very revealing in the context of that country exploring the parameters of a New Détente with the US. According to them, those buyers supposedly want to see if they can get better deals from Moscow after the price cap enters into effect, thus signaling opportunistic and not necessarily unfriendly intentions.

China’s Reported Pause Of Russian Oil Imports Ahead Of The West’s Price Cap Is Revealing