Part 3a: RAND and SeaLight – Taiwan Relations Act

The United States has also recently transitioned from an ambiguous approach [strategic ambiguity] to deterring a Chinese invasion on Taiwan to one that more clearly states that the United States will defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion (referred to as strategic clarity).

P93: Understanding and Countering China’s Maritime Gray Zone Operations | RAND

This is not true! The Biden administration “walked back” his statements each time!

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US Navy Aircraft Transits Taiwan Strait, China Responds (+the U.S. is not obligated to defend Taiwan)

US Navy Aircraft Transits Taiwan Strait, China Responds

The U.S. Navy’s 7th fleet said a P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft transited the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday.

Around once a month, U.S. military ships or aircraft pass through or above the waterway that separates democratically governed Taiwan from China – missions that always anger Beijing. China claims sovereignty over the island of Taiwan and says it has jurisdiction over the strait. Taiwan and the United States dispute that, saying the strait is an international waterway.

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South China Sea: US troop aid may reassure Philippines but will prod China, analysts say

Has anyone realized that by disclosing the existence of “US Task Force Ayungin,” Biden admin implicitly recognized Philippines’ sovereignty over a disputed SCS feature?

Washington has never taken a position on SCS territories(but it has in ECS). This is a clear signal to China.*

Derek J. Grossman, RAND

South China Sea: US troop aid may reassure Philippines but will prod China, analysts say (archived)

The Philippines has said the US task force only offered support – in the form of intelligence and surveillance – and did not directly take part in its resupply missions to BRP Sierra Madre, the retired warship, but analysts suggested that China’s leadership could see it in a different light.

Zheng said the revelation about the American task force meant the US was likely to be more engaged in the drawn-out maritime conflicts in the region, even suggesting that Washington would “be the first to take part in the command and planning of Philippine maritime activities”.

Ding Duo, deputy director of the Centre for Oceans Law and Policy at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies in Hainan, said the presence of a special task force showed that Washington and Manila had long cooperated on resupply operations to Second Thomas Shoal.

“Such support emboldens the Philippines and is not conducive to China and the Philippines managing their differences,” Ding said. “The US involvement has also squeezed the political space for internal coordination and decision-making within the Philippines.”

He said it was also possible that American troops could be on Philippine ships and involved in front-line action “using a covert or concealed identity to participate in Philippine maritime operations” in future.

He said the US could “only intervene [in South China Sea disputes] in a covert manner and so it took the form of a task force”.

Related:

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US Foreign Policy vs. China Continues Under Trump

The incoming Trump administration is poised to pick up where the Biden administration has left off on the decades-spanning centerpiece of US foreign policy ‒ the encirclement and containment of China.

US Foreign Policy vs. China Continues Under Trump (archived)

Related:

AFPI: America First Policy Institute

Por la Pesca:

The Walton Family Foundation, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), and a coalition of fishermen’s associations and environmental institutions join forces to promote responsible fishing practices.

Front Organizations

China’s A2/AD (ACE Concept/Joint All-Domain Operations)

Trump Probably Really Does Appreciate Two Points From Zelensky’s “Victory Plan”

The Financial Times reported that “Two of the ideas were laid out in Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s ‘victory plan’ with Trump specifically in mind”, with these being the proposal for Ukraine’s partners to extract its resource wealth and Ukraine’s offer to replace some US troops stationed in Europe. Trump probably really does appreciate these two points since they align with his interests. The first would help him recoup some of the US’ investment in Ukraine while the second could facilitate his “Pivot (back) to Asia”.

As a businessman, Trump doesn’t want his country to lose out on promising business opportunities in Ukraine after investing several hundred billion dollars there, hence why he’s unlikely to abandon his predecessor’s proxy war completely even though he’s much more likely to try to reach a deal. Senator Lindsey Graham estimated over the summer that Ukraine has $10-12 trillion worth of critical minerals under its soil. Even if it “only” has $1 trillion, then it’s still attractive enough to catch Trump’s attention.

Trump Probably Really Does Appreciate Two Points From Zelensky’s “Victory Plan”

So why does he want to risk business with China? 🤷🏼‍♀️

[Anonymous] US official accuses Russia and China of blocking Asia leaders’ statement

Full video

US official accuses Russia and China of blocking Asia leaders’ statement

WASHINGTON, Oct 12 (Reuters) – Russia and China blocked a proposed consensus statement for the East Asia Summit drafted by Southeast Asian countries, mainly over objections to language on the contested South China Sea, a U.S. official told Reuters on Saturday.

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