South China Sea: US troop aid may reassure Philippines but will prod China, analysts say

Has anyone realized that by disclosing the existence of “US Task Force Ayungin,” Biden admin implicitly recognized Philippines’ sovereignty over a disputed SCS feature?

Washington has never taken a position on SCS territories(but it has in ECS). This is a clear signal to China.*

Derek J. Grossman, RAND

South China Sea: US troop aid may reassure Philippines but will prod China, analysts say (archived)

The Philippines has said the US task force only offered support – in the form of intelligence and surveillance – and did not directly take part in its resupply missions to BRP Sierra Madre, the retired warship, but analysts suggested that China’s leadership could see it in a different light.

Zheng said the revelation about the American task force meant the US was likely to be more engaged in the drawn-out maritime conflicts in the region, even suggesting that Washington would “be the first to take part in the command and planning of Philippine maritime activities”.

Ding Duo, deputy director of the Centre for Oceans Law and Policy at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies in Hainan, said the presence of a special task force showed that Washington and Manila had long cooperated on resupply operations to Second Thomas Shoal.

“Such support emboldens the Philippines and is not conducive to China and the Philippines managing their differences,” Ding said. “The US involvement has also squeezed the political space for internal coordination and decision-making within the Philippines.”

He said it was also possible that American troops could be on Philippine ships and involved in front-line action “using a covert or concealed identity to participate in Philippine maritime operations” in future.

He said the US could “only intervene [in South China Sea disputes] in a covert manner and so it took the form of a task force”.

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‘Kill’ plot vs Marcos ‘maliciously taken out of context’ —VP Sara

‘Kill’ plot vs Marcos ‘maliciously taken out of context’ —VP Sara (archived)

BBM seems to be taking out his opponents from what I’ve been observing. The next presidential election is in 2028. I wonder how involved the CIA is?

Related:

Sara Duterte Exposes House Panel’s Off-Cam Confession: It’s All About Election Funds

“After that meeting with the Makabayan bloc and Martin Romualdez, they started destroying my name, pummeling me in the media with the multi million PR campaign. They even insulted me by lying that I was a traitor, a corrupt, an abusive person. Your motherfucker, who is corrupt?” she said during an online press briefing early Saturday.

“Those congressmen who are holding hearings, what do they say when the hearing is over, when the mic is off, when the media is gone- ‘Excuse me, we need money because the election is coming up. Please tell Sara, I don’t like what I’m doing,’” she said.

The country’s veep then directed her fury at Manila Rep. Joel Chua, head of the House panel probing the confidential funds use, accusing him of hypocrisy.

“You motherfucker, you don’t like what you’re doing, why are you ruining my name, Joel Chua?”

Philippines sides with Vietnam in South China Sea dispute, hoping it will ‘return the favour’

Analysts believe that while Vietnam appreciates the gesture, it is unlikely to influence Hanoi’s strategy in the disputed waters.

Philippines sides with Vietnam in South China Sea dispute, hoping it will ‘return the favour’

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BowerGroupAsia: Dr. Prashanth Parameswaran

Prashanth is concurrently a fellow at the Wilson Center, a senior columnist at The Diplomat magazine and an instructor for institutions including the U.S. State Department. He is the founder of the twice-weekly ASEAN Wonk newsletter, which offers research insights and analysis on the geopolitics and geoeconomics of Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific region. 

Stratbase ADR Institute Non-Resident Fellow: Dr. Prashanth Parameswaran

Dr. Parameswaran has held various roles across think tanks, governments, media and companies, including the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry and the Associated Press. In those capacities, he worked on various issues including geopolitical and geoeconomic statecraft, Southeast Asia foreign and security policy, regional institutions, major power engagement in the Indo-Pacific as well as alliances and partnerships.   

Dr. Parameswaran holds a Ph.D. and MA focused on international business, international relations, Asian affairs, and U.S. foreign policy from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. He earned a BA from the University of Virginia, where he studied foreign affairs and peace and conflict studies with a focus on Asia. He regularly advises groups and individuals seeking to advance conversations on Indo-Pacific affairs and serves on the board of several institutions.  

Global Times: China and Vietnam capable to handle law enforcement conflict in S.China Sea properly; Philippines’ intention to stigmatize China ‘won’t work’

SeaLight document

China unveils evidences showing Philippine grounded warship at Ren’ai Jiao destroys coral reefs, endangers marine organism

Source

While Manila mulls over filing a case against China with so-called “solid evidence of the damaged coral reefs caused by Chinese actions,” China, on Monday, released a report based on an unprecedentedly extensive and detailed on-site ecosystem survey around Ren’ai Jiao (also known as Ren’ai Reef), with solid evidence showing that the grounded warship has caused damage to the coral reefs and environmental pollution in the South China Sea.

China unveils evidences showing Philippine grounded warship at Ren’ai Jiao destroys coral reefs, endangers marine organism

Related:

(Full text in English) “Investigation Report on the Illegal “Beach” Warship Destroying the Coral Reef Ecosystem in Ren’ai Reef”

Experts warn of Philippines scheming for ‘new arbitration’ on South China Sea + More

Philippines rejects China’s accusation of environmental damage in South China Sea

China has in turn dredged sand and coral to build artificial islands in the South China Sea, which it says is normal construction activity on its territory, but which other nations say is aimed at enforcing its claim to the waterway.

A report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies last year found China’s construction activity buried more than 4,600 acres (1,861 acres) of reef.

China claims almost all of the vital waterway, where $3 trillion worth of trade passes annually, including parts claimed by the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam.

Greg Poling, from the front CSIS, claims that Vietnam is also building artificial islands.

Experts warn of Philippines scheming for ‘new arbitration’ on South China Sea + More

While reiterating that the arbitral tribunal in the South China Sea arbitration exceeded its jurisdiction and made an illegitimate ruling, Chinese experts warned on Monday that the Philippines is scheming for “new arbitration” on the issue, which would undermine regional peace and stability.

Experts warn of Philippines scheming for ‘new arbitration’ on South China Sea

Related:

Philippines should use legal, moral leverage in West Philippine Sea – expert

Ray Powell, director of the SeaLight Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation at Stanford University, said China is using an “asymmetrical” strategy through military might in asserting its claims in the region.

He also expressed support for the Philippine government’s plan to file another case against China, this time over the environmental destruction that China has caused in the West Philippine Sea.

PH to complete environmental case vs. China in ‘few weeks’- DOJ

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin’s Regular Press Conference on May 20, 2024

The Office of Naval Research funded Stanford’s GKC

I’m no expert, but I had a feeling that they would back in April, at least:

Philippine Coast Guard clarifies ‘assertive transparency’ tact

Vietnamese Poachers using Cyanide and Dynamite Fishing in the Philippines’ EEZ

Prospects shaky for Philippines’ government and communist peace talks

CIA World Factbook

Prospects shaky for Philippines’ government and communist peace talks

Manila, Philippines – Fighting continues between the Philippine military and communist rebels despite an agreement to resume peace talks this month in an effort to end the world’s longest-running communist armed rebellion.

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr surprised many when, in November, his government announced an agreement with the National Democratic Front (NDF), the rebels’ political wing, to restart peace talks that his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte had ended shortly after taking office.

Considering that the Millennium Challenge Corporation just gave the Philippines a grant, I doubt that they’ll see any positive economic reforms. MCC’s support for “democratic reform” is akin to the “democracy promotion” advanced by the National Endowment for Democracy. My guess is that it’s to keep the Philippines in line with US foreign policy against China.

Tonto Strikes Again: Preempts Task Force, DFA + and an update (Philippines)

First of Three Parts: Sabotaging Diplomacy at the South China Seas

Four days after the country has barely started recovering from the trauma President Marcos dealt on Philippine-China relations after he made a faux pas recognizing the newly-elected president of Taiwan and infuriating China, Philippine Coast Guard Jay Tarriela again preempted the National Task Force and the Department of Foreign Affairs dishing out fake news to the national media.

Tonto Strikes Again: Preempts Task Force, DFA

I’ve updated my ‘Philippines Game Changer’ document, with a couple of links, regarding the South China Sea and ‘Freedom of Navigation’. I’ve also created a page for all of my working papers, to which I’ll upload future updates. If anyone has any feedback, I’d appreciate it. I can be reached through my contact page, or email at mscat71@dontsp.am, if comments are closed.

Related:

US policies pushing China, Philippines to brink of conflict

There’s an information war going on in the South China Sea (using embedded journalists, civil society activists, and various US think tanks). The Philippines plans on building a military base, on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, to replace the BRP Sierra Madre (which is about to break apart). Marcos is also re-starting oil exploration, in the Reed Bank which is part of the disputed territory.

Philippines to develop islands in South China Sea + More

YouTube Playlist: InfoOp – SCS

Tiamzons, Catbalogan 10 were held captive, tortured and cowardly killed by the AFP in US-directed operations

The entire leadership and membership of the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) condemns in the strongest terms the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) for the brutal torture and cowardly killing of Party leaders Benito Tiamzon (Ka Laan) and Wilma Austria-Tiamzon (Ka Bagong-tao), together with eight other revolutionaries after they were captured in Samar province on August 21, 2022.

Tiamzons, Catbalogan 10 were held captive, tortured and cowardly killed by the AFP in US-directed operations

Related:

CPP confirms deaths of Tiamzon couple, says they were killed by AFP