Manila escalates South China Sea row as it continues trick of ‘playing victim’ + More

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Manila escalates South China Sea row as it continues trick of ‘playing victim’

According to experts, Marcos’ tough words serve domestic political purposes when he needs to shift Filipinos’ discontent over his administration’s performance on livelihood and the economy, and are also a response to the “support” from countries outside the region, including the US. 

The US is the biggest external disturbance to peace and stability in the South China Sea,” Ding said, “without instigation from US, it is more likely that China and the Philippines would manage their differences through negotiation and consultation.”

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The facts and truth about Ren’ai Jiao

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Update: Philippines Game Changer Analysis 03-21-2024

I’m tired, right now, but I wanted to update on this. It’s also available on my documents page. I’ve combined a couple of other documents with it, that I was working on. To be honest, I’m getting burned out on it. I might polish it up, at a later date, as it’s 36 pages.

Philippines counts the cost of tough South China Sea stance against Beijing

Philippines counts the cost of tough South China Sea stance against Beijing

The Philippines has become a laboratory in responding to Beijing on the South China Sea row, taking the most risk but showing inconsistency and underwhelming results thus far. Its predicament explains why other Southeast Asian claimant states remain unlikely to follow its lead. The tepid reaction to Manila’s pitch for an Asean claimants-only Code of Conduct is indicative.

As had happened in the past, lost economic opportunities and further erosion of Manila’s position in the flashpoint, relative to other disputants, may lead to a possible policy reversal in handling the maritime tiff come the 2028 presidential election.

Last year, the Philippines began to expose China’s illicit actions in the disputed waters. It inserted reporters in routine patrols and resupply sorties to document interference by the Chinese coastguard and maritime militia ships. The idea is to rally local and international support and impose reputational costs on Beijing. [Project Myoushu AKA Transparency Initiative]

This approach made strides in rousing public backing for Manila’s defence build-up, a stronger alliance with the United States, and a tougher stance against China. However, it also contributed to polarising domestic politics, affecting people-to-people ties and diminishing Chinese economic interest in the Philippines. Meanwhile, Beijing remains unmoved, weathering reputational costs and continuing to wield a capacity for escalation in the South China Sea.

During Xi’s visit to Hanoi last December, both sides vowed to upgrade the Kunming-Haiphong rail line. In contrast, Chinese funding for three rail projects discussed during the previous Duterte government is already dead in the water. China is unlikely to become a strong partner for President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr’s Build Better More infrastructure programme.

Losses in the tourism sector have also become evident. In 2019, before the pandemic, China was the Philippines’ fastest-growing tourist market, with more than 1.7 million arrivals, or a 21.1 per cent market share, just behind South Korea. Last year, as countries in Asia raced to benefit from the return of Chinese tourists, the Philippines only welcomed over 260,000 tourists from China, with the market share shrinking to just 4.84 per cent.

Ironically, for all the talk about Duterte’s China policy as appeasement, it was under his watch that the Philippines made the biggest upgrade in infrastructure in the Spratlys since the 1970s. He also invested in modernising the country’s military, procuring modern frigates from South Korea, multirole response vessels from Japan and cruise missiles from India. All these happened while relations with China remained stable.

Another irony is that while Manila celebrates every resupply mission to the Second Thomas Shoal that successfully eluded the Chinese blockade, Vietnam is busy doing substantial reclamation on its Spratly outposts and gearing for a potential second airfield, with reportedly little interference from Beijing. [Bueller?]

These should offer plenty of insights as the strategy of the Philippines over the maritime squabble evolves.

Updated: Philippines Game Changer Analysis – Project Myoushu – South China Sea

I’ve uploaded the latest update to my paper on Project Myoushu to my documents page. It’s not finished yet, but I have polished it up some and added more resources. I’ve pushed back my deadline as I haven’t been able to work on it as much as I’ve wanted to.

Previous Posts Regarding the China-Philippines Territorial Dispute in the SCS:

Territorial disputes in the South China Sea

US policies pushing China, Philippines to brink of conflict

US policies pushing China, Philippines to brink of conflict

The China-Philippines maritime dispute does not, in of itself, reflect anything approaching an existential conflict. It has, however, become an increasingly dangerous proxy and potential flashpoint for underlying China-U.S. tensions in the South China Sea.

FYI, this article is full of disinformation. I’m posting it to point out that there’s an information war going on in the South China Sea (using embedded journalists, civil society activists, and various US think tanks). The Philippines plans on building a military base, on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, to replace the BRP Sierra Madre (which is about to break apart). Marcos is also re-starting oil exploration, in the Reed Bank, which is part of the disputed territory.

Related:

US Shapes Philippines into Southeast Asia’s “Ukraine”

Why the US is Picking a Fight with China in the South China Sea

Beijing rejects tribunal’s ruling in South China Sea case

Paul Reichler, of the law firm Foley Hoag LLP, who who coordinated the Philippines’ legal team, said: “The tribunal’s ruling not only benefits the Philippines, it also benefits other states bordering the South China Sea like Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam. If China’s nine-dash line is invalid as to the Philippines, it is equally invalid to those states and, indeed, the rest of the international community.”

Paul S. Reichler

Why Are CNN, ABC, and NBC Reporters Embedding With the Israeli Military?

Why Are CNN, ABC, and NBC Reporters Embedding With the Israeli Military?

Helen Benedict, author of The Lonely Soldier: The Private War of Women Serving in Iraq and a professor at the Columbia Journalism School, noted in an interview that “the original purpose of embedding was to control journalists.” She and Christenson both referenced Phillip Knightley’s classic 1975 book The First Casualty: The War Correspondent as Hero, Propagandist, and Myth Maker From the Crimea to Vietnam, which describes how the government invented embedded journalism in response to critical coverage of the Vietnam War. In a chapter added in 2004, Knightley wrote that as civilian casualties in Afghanistan passed 5,000, “the Pentagon sought a media strategy that would turn attention back to the military’s role in the war, especially the part played by ordinary American service men and women. This would require getting war correspondents ‘on side.’

H/T: Council Estate Media

Previously:

Disinformation War

Americans hear about a new “information war” strategy, formally known as wartime propaganda. Most don’t realize that it is a disinformation war, and they are the target. Most Americans don’t understand that the corporate media does not exist to inform them, but to mislead them.

The US military has formed huge propaganda units, with each service training thousands of military personnel and paying contractors to influence social media. They post information on-line and make comments as regular anonymous folks to support the official government narrative. They demean truth tellers, target them with complaints that they violate comment guidelines, and pressure websites to censor comments.

Read More »

Media Bias: Ukraine Blocks Journalists From Front Lines With Escalating Censorship

After Ukrainian forces regained control of the port city of Kherson last November, following eight months of Russian occupation, some journalists entered the liberated city within hours. Without formal permission to be there, they documented the jubilant crowds welcoming soldiers with hugs and Ukrainian flags. Ukrainian officials, who tightly control press access to the front lines, responded by revoking the journalists’ press credentials, claiming that they had “ignored existing restrictions.”

Ukraine Blocks Journalists From Front Lines With Escalating Censorship

As if Ukraine doesn’t create ‘propaganda’!? 🙄

Related:

Inside the high-stakes clash for control of Ukraine’s story:

The heated clashes have remained largely behind the scenes because the credentials are vital to report from the country, and journalists worry that a public conflict might further threaten their access. Most of the journalists from Western and Ukrainian news organizations who have clashed with their handlers spoke on the condition of anonymity.