U.S. munitions stockpiles are rapidly being depleted as the Ukraine war continues. Sufficient stockpiles of munitions are vital to the U.S. defense. Once the stockpiles are expended, the Department of Defense cannot simply buy more munitions—manufacturing takes years. Congress and the Department of Defense must ensure that the U.S. has sufficient stockpiles to meet the challenges of the modern era while working with manufacturers to make the industry as responsive as possible.
The military must set realistic requirements for munitions stockpiles based on the certainty of the high rates of expenditures that will be experienced in any future conflict with Russia or China.
Imagine that!? With all of the handouts to the military industrial complex, they didn’t have enough 💰 to make munitions for the National Defense Stockpile?! I call 💩!
Update on Russian military operations in and around Ukraine for November 11, 2022.
– Russia completes withdrawal from Kherson city to east bank of the Dnieper River;
– Ukraine has lost its last major opportunity to corner and destroy/capture large numbers of Russian forces/equipment;
– Russia continues stated process of de-militarizing Ukraine; – US aid to Ukraine becomes increasingly unrealistic
– Hawk missiles designed in the 1960s and unused for 2 decades are being “refurbished” for a lack of better options;
– “Avenger” systems to be sent in small numbers (4) which are essentially Stinger missiles attached to a Hummer
– after training for Ukrainian operators is completed;
– Dwindling amounts of basic ammunition continue to be sent to Ukraine, prolonging the conflict, but not in quantities to even allow Ukraine to hold what it has;
– As Russian forces withdrew from Kherson city, they advanced elsewhere in southern and northern Donbass.
The United States will soon be unable to provide Ukraine with certain types of ammunition that are essential to Kyiv’s battle against Russia’s invasion, as supplies are being used up faster than they can be replaced.
The Defense Department will spend $92 million in congressionally approved supplemental funds “for procurement of replacement M982 Excalibur munitions transferred to Ukraine in support of the international effort to counter Russian aggression,” according to a budget document last month that wasn’t previously disclosed.
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“The $92 million addition to Excalibur more than doubles the program’s budget, adding about 900 projectiles in fiscal 2022, up from $56.7 million that Congress approved this fiscal year,” according to Mark Cancian, a defense analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies who’s monitoring Ukraine-related spending.
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“This also confirms what had long been suspected, that the United States is providing this advanced weapon to Ukraine,” Cancian said. Each round currently cost from $98,700 to $106,400 in fiscal 2021 and 2022 dollars depending on the quantities purchased, according to Army budget documents.
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In addition to the previously undisclosed Excalibur, the budget documents also spell out supplies of well-known items such as conventional 155mm artillery rounds, Javelin anti-armor and Stinger anti-air missiles, the HIMARS mobile rocket system and its Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System, or GMLRS, missiles. There are also smaller purchases of MK-19 grenade launchers, “precision sniper rifles” and “spotting scopes” and “replacement battery coolant units” for Stingers.
Even though the United States views these weapons sales as integral to deterring China from attacking Taiwan, some of the deals were publicly announced as far back as 2017.
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The reasons – government delays, supply chain issues and production requirements – are numerous, and the problem won’t be easy to fix, Rep. Mike McCaul, R-Texas, the ranking member on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told Defense News.
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The U.S. government has approved the sale of 10 weapons systems Taiwan has yet to receive – some of which are not slated for delivery until the end of the decade.
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The United States has flooded billions of dollars in weapons into Ukraine, including items that are part of Taiwan’s backlog, such as Harpoon anti-ship missiles, Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and High Mobile Artillery Rocket Systems.
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For example, several Middle Eastern and eastern European countries are ahead of Taiwan in Lockheed Martin’s F-16 production queue. In 2019, the State Department approved an $8 billion Taiwan sale for 66 F-16s, but Taipei does not expect to receive the aircraft until 2026.
“Saudi Arabia is still ahead of Taiwan on the priority list in some cases,” Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wis., told Defense News ahead of a July meeting with Taiwan’s Washington envoy. “We need to take a look at that.”
The new aid was authorized by the presidential drawdown authority, which allows Biden to send Ukraine weapons and ammunition directly from US military stockpiles. The funds were pulled from the $40 billion Ukraine aid bill that Biden signed back in May, which is meant to last through September 30.
So in essence, at a pace suggested by Hertling, Ukraine’s GMLRS monthly burn rate would equal about 29% of the entire planned U.S. procurement for the next five years, not withstanding production rates of the ER GMLRS which have yet to be set.
Given those numbers, what does Ukraine’s use of HIMARS portend for that nation, and the U.S., which might find itself needing these systems in case of a future fight with China, Russia or some other adversary?
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“If each of 16 HIMARS fires three rockets per day, that’s 48 a day or 1,440 per month. 10,000 rockets would last well into 2023 at that rate. On the other hand, if the Ukrainians get the 100 HIMARS they are requesting and each one fires three rockets per day, that’s 300 per day or 9,000 per month.”
Kathy Warden, chief executive of Northrop Grumman, one of the top five “prime” contractors in the US, warned that weapons stockpiles had not been built to service a lengthy war.
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“I wouldn’t necessarily say that I’ve heard we’re running out, but if you do project forward that we’re going to want to sustain these levels of commitments for another couple of years — that’s certainly not what anyone had built stockpiles to accommodate,” she said.
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“We think in the long term, there’s going to be a requirement to replace Russian air combat capability — fixed wing and rotary wing aircraft” for the Ukrainians, the industry executive said.*
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Northrop was prepared to make investments, including expanding factories “ahead of a contract”, said Warden, but cautioned that industry needed to “get an indication that if we build it, the demand will come”.
It can take years for a defence company to source parts, assemble, test, and deliver a system.
Northrop Grumman generates more than 80 per cent of its annual revenues from contracts with the US government, including key roles on programmes such as the F-35 fighter jet where it provides parts for the weapons system and avionics. It also led the industry team for NASA’s James Webb space telescope.
Like many manufacturers, Northrop Grumman is wrestling with supply chain challenges, in particular shortages of electronic parts such as cables, connectors and power supplies. Lead times for such parts have “doubled or tripled,” said Warden.
KYIV ($1=29.50 Ukrainian Hryvnias) — The Economic Security Bureau of Ukraine registered repeated sales of humanitarian aid coming from Western countries, as well as arms. This was announced by the director of the department, Vadim Melnik, on the air of the TV channel “Ukraine 24” on July 5, according to Life online portal.
The U.S. will provide Ukraine with more advanced rocket systems and precision-guided munitions that will give them an edge on the battlefield, President Joe Biden wrote in an opinion article in the New York Times published Tuesday.
But Kyiv has given the United States assurances that the new weapons will be used in Ukraine and not against targets in Russia, senior administration officials told reporters after Biden’s op-ed was published.
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The HIMARS and its munitions are part of a new $700 million aid package for Ukraine, which will be announced on Wednesday, the officials said. The package also includes counterfire radars, a number of air surveillance radars, additional Javelin anti-tank missiles, anti-armor weapons, additional artillery rounds, helicopters, additional tactical vehicles and spare parts, the second official said.
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