In Ukraine, the United States Is In Over Its Head

By Thomas Meaney. Mr. Meaney, a fellow at the Max Planck Society in Germany, writes regularly on American foreign policy and international relations.

The greatest blunder President Vladimir Putin may have made so far in Ukraine is giving the West the impression that Russia could lose the war. The early Russian strike on Kyiv stumbled and failed. The Russian behemoth seemed not nearly as formidable as it had been made out to be. The war suddenly appeared as a face-off between a mass of disenchanted Russian incompetents and supercharged, savvy Ukrainian patriots.

In Ukraine, the United States Is In Over Its Head

How Ukraine war has shaped US planning for a China conflict

Yes, I do think the US has an eye on instigating a conflict with China.

As the war rages on in Ukraine, the United States is doing more than supporting an ally. It’s learning lessons — with an eye toward a possible clash with China. No one knows what the next U.S. major military conflict will be or whether the U.S. will send troops — as it did in Afghanistan and Iraq — or provide vast amounts of aid and expertise, as it has done with Ukraine. But China remains America’s biggest concern. U.S. military officials say Beijing wants to be ready to invade the self-governing island of Taiwan by 2027, and the U.S. remains the island democracy’s chief ally and supplier of defense weapons.

How Ukraine war has shaped US planning for a China conflict

Related:

How Ukraine war has shaped US planning for a China conflict

Rapidly Depleting Munitions Stockpiles Point to Necessary Changes in Policy

SUMMARY

U.S. munitions stockpiles are rapidly being depleted as the Ukraine war continues. Sufficient stockpiles of munitions are vital to the U.S. defense. Once the stockpiles are expended, the Department of Defense cannot simply buy more munitions—manufacturing takes years. Congress and the Department of Defense must ensure that the U.S. has sufficient stockpiles to meet the challenges of the modern era while working with manufacturers to make the industry as responsive as possible.

Rapidly Depleting Munitions Stockpiles Point to Necessary Changes in Policy

U.S. and NATO scramble to arm Ukraine and refill their own arsenals

Either this narrative about weapon stockpiles, being depleted, is part of the information war or Russia is demilitarizing NATO!?!

U.S. and NATO scramble to arm Ukraine and refill their own arsenals

In Ukraine, the kind of European war thought inconceivable is chewing up the modest stockpiles of artillery, ammunition and air defenses of what some in NATO call Europe’s “bonsai armies,” after the tiny Japanese trees. Even the mighty United States has only limited stocks of the weapons the Ukrainians want and need, and Washington is unwilling to divert key weapons from delicate regions like Taiwan and Korea, where China and North Korea are constantly testing the limits.

So the West is scrambling to find increasingly scarce Soviet-era equipment and ammunition that Ukraine can use now, including S-300 air defense missiles, T-72 tanks and especially Soviet-caliber artillery shells

There are even discussions about NATO investing in old factories in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Bulgaria to restart the manufacturing of Soviet-caliber 152-mm and 122-mm shells for Ukraine’s still largely Soviet-era artillery armory.

The European Union has approved €3.1 billion ($3.2 billion) to repay member states for what they provide to Ukraine, but that fund, the [ironically-named] European Peace Facility, is nearly 90 percent depleted.

Smaller countries have exhausted their potential, another NATO official said, with 20 of its 30 members “pretty tapped out.” But the remaining 10 can still provide more, he suggested, especially larger allies. That would include France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands.

NATO’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, has advised the alliance — including, pointedly, Germany — that NATO guidelines requiring members to keep stockpiles should not be a pretext to limit arms exports to Ukraine. But it is also true that Germany and France, like the United States, want to calibrate the weapons Ukraine gets, to prevent escalation and direct attacks on Russia.

Washington is also looking at older, cheaper alternatives like giving Ukraine anti-tank TOW missiles, which are in plentiful supply, instead of Javelins, and Hawk surface-to-air missiles instead of newer versions. But officials are increasingly pushing Ukraine to be more efficient and not, for example, fire a missile that costs $150,000 at a drone that costs $20,000.

Pink Flamingo: The U.S. Military Will Pay for Its Munition Shortage

The military must set realistic requirements for munitions stockpiles based on the certainty of the high rates of expenditures that will be experienced in any future conflict with Russia or China.

Pink Flamingo: The U.S. Military Will Pay for Its Munition Shortage

Imagine that!? With all of the handouts to the military industrial complex, they didn’t have enough 💰 to make munitions for the National Defense Stockpile?! I call 💩!

Russia’s De-militarization of Ukraine Continues – US Sending Decades-Old Arms to Kiev

Update on Russian military operations in and around Ukraine for November 11, 2022.

– Russia completes withdrawal from Kherson city to east bank of the Dnieper River;

– Ukraine has lost its last major opportunity to corner and destroy/capture large numbers of Russian forces/equipment;

– Russia continues stated process of de-militarizing Ukraine; – US aid to Ukraine becomes increasingly unrealistic

– Hawk missiles designed in the 1960s and unused for 2 decades are being “refurbished” for a lack of better options;

– “Avenger” systems to be sent in small numbers (4) which are essentially Stinger missiles attached to a Hummer

– after training for Ukrainian operators is completed;

– Dwindling amounts of basic ammunition continue to be sent to Ukraine, prolonging the conflict, but not in quantities to even allow Ukraine to hold what it has;

– As Russian forces withdrew from Kherson city, they advanced elsewhere in southern and northern Donbass.

References:

Russia’s De-militarization of Ukraine Continues – US Sending Decades-Old Arms to Kiev (Odysee) via The New Atlas

The war in Ukraine is draining Western munition stockpiles

The United States alone has given more than 1 million artillery shells, according to a report from the Department of Defense. But the U.S. is not alone. Although not to that scale, European nations have been steadily aiding Ukraine’s defense efforts. Now other allied nations are starting to worry they won’t have enough armaments for their own self-defense. The Associated Press reported that European nations are worried about their arms supplies should Russian aggression reach them.

The war in Ukraine is draining Western munition stockpiles