Chinese and Philippine ships collide at Sabina Shoal, a new flash point + More

Source

The incident, the first time in decades that Beijing and Manila have clashed over the Sabina Shoal, may derail efforts to lower tensions in the South China Sea.

Chinese and Philippine ships collide at Sabina Shoal, a new flash point (archived)

Related:

CCG restricts repeated Philippine vessel intrusions near South China Sea reefs

Chen Xiangmiao, director of the World Navy Research Center at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, told the Global Times on Monday that the Philippines sees Xianbin Jiao as a transfer station for its resupply missions to Ren’ai Jiao, as Xianbin Jiao is located between Ren’ai Jiao and the Philippines’ Palawan Province.

[08-16-24] Foreign Ministry Spokesperson’s Remarks on the Philippine Coast Guard Vessel’s Illegal Anchoring in the Lagoon of Xianbin Jiao

[08-14-24] Exclusive: Manila to deploy new vessel for ‘semi-permanent presence’ at China’s Xianbin Jiao, breaking its promise: source

Philippine media have hyped the China Coast Guard’s (CCG) presence in the Xianbin Jiao, but it is the Philippines that has sent the MRRV-9701 to the area in the first place. The Philippine ship anchored in the lagoon of the Xianbin Jiao in April, with a CCG ship arriving later in July.

Updated on 07-27-2024: SeaLight, formerly Project Myoushu

Powell’s storytelling:

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South China Sea: Philippines’ anti-ship missile base puts Scarborough Shoal in cross hairs (more information)

What the article left out is; to shoot far, the Philippine military needs to see far. However, the Philippines don’t have any over-the-horizon (OTH) radar, military satellites, AWACS planes or other long-range ISR capabilities, to make use of the full range of the BrahMos missile. Without it the missile is limited to the range of its available ISR assets, which are measured in just dozens of kilometers.

However, if a BrahMos missile is ever launched against a long-range Chinese target, it will be easy to guess who would have supplied the essential Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) information and target identification to the Philippine military.

StarBoySAR

South China Sea: Philippines’ anti-ship missile base puts Scarborough Shoal in cross hairs

Even if the Philippines lacks the advanced communications, intelligence, and targeting systems needed to maximise the BrahMos’ capabilities, it could still leverage US support in these areas, Koh said, citing the sinking of Russia’s Moskva warship by Ukraine in 2022, which he said was achieved thanks to “targeting support provided by Kyiv’s allies, chiefly the Americans”.

The flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, the Moskva became the largest warship lost in combat since the second world war when it was hit by two Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles in April 2022. US officials later told the media that the Pentagon had provided intelligence that led to the ship’s sinking.

For the Philippines, the BrahMos missiles are “significant game changers” [🙄], according to security strategist Chester Cabalza, president of the International Development and Security Cooperation think tank in Manila.

However, Don McLain Gill, an international-studies lecturer at De La Salle University in the Philippines, questioned whether the BrahMos purchase alone would deliver robust deterrence against China.

“It will be crucial for the BrahMos to be supplemented by efficient intelligence, surveillance, target-acquisition and reconnaissance, which is critical to track targets and ensure they can be used by command,” he said, warning Manila must invest further to maximise the missiles’ deterrent value.

Previously:

Philippines Builds First BrahMos Anti-Ship Missile Base Facing South China Sea

Lighting Up the Gray Zone: The Philippines-Taiwan Counter-Coercion Toolkit

Perry World House’s Thomas Shattuck and Robin Garcia are out with an important new white paper which recommends the public release of visual information to counter China’s coercive activities, using the Philippines and Taiwan as examples. As the champions of “assertive transparency”, SeaLight enthusiastically welcomes this timely new scholarship!

Lighting Up the Gray Zone: The Philippines-Taiwan Counter-Coercion Toolkit

Perry World House is at the University of Pennsylvania, another university funded by the US government. I’ve updated my Project Myoushu document, to reflect the following:

The origin of Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation. It’s sponsored by the Office of Naval Research, an organization within the Department of Navy. I saw it over at the Asian Century Journal, yesterday.

From a previous post.

Related:

Documents

Japan, U.S. and Philippines to discuss stronger military ties & US, Philippines to expand strategic port

Japan, U.S. and Philippines to discuss stronger military ties & US, Philippines to expand strategic port

Japan, U.S. and Philippines to discuss stronger military ties

The three foreign ministers will discuss ways to strengthen cooperation in the wake of increasing collisions in the South China Sea between ships from the Philippines and China.

They agreed to work toward signing a Reciprocal Access Agreement that would make it easier for members of the Self-Defense Forces and the Philippine military to engage in joint training exercises by simplifying procedures to obtain visas and bring weapons and ammunition into each other’s countries.

Japan will also provide funds for the Philippines to acquire a coastal surveillance radar system.

Related:

US, Philippines to expand strategic port

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Claims by US over central Pacific now rival those of Beijing in South China Sea

Washington’s new pacts with three island states will establish a second island chain of attack as a complete sphere of influence in breach of international law and its own interpretation of freedom of navigation

Claims by US over central Pacific now rival those of Beijing in South China Sea

Related:

Joe Manchin Leads Senate Energy Committee Hearing On Compact Of Free Association Amendments Act (49:30)

U.S. Claims to Central Pacific Flout International Law