South China Sea: US troop aid may reassure Philippines but will prod China, analysts say

Has anyone realized that by disclosing the existence of “US Task Force Ayungin,” Biden admin implicitly recognized Philippines’ sovereignty over a disputed SCS feature?

Washington has never taken a position on SCS territories(but it has in ECS). This is a clear signal to China.*

Derek J. Grossman, RAND

South China Sea: US troop aid may reassure Philippines but will prod China, analysts say (archived)

The Philippines has said the US task force only offered support – in the form of intelligence and surveillance – and did not directly take part in its resupply missions to BRP Sierra Madre, the retired warship, but analysts suggested that China’s leadership could see it in a different light.

Zheng said the revelation about the American task force meant the US was likely to be more engaged in the drawn-out maritime conflicts in the region, even suggesting that Washington would “be the first to take part in the command and planning of Philippine maritime activities”.

Ding Duo, deputy director of the Centre for Oceans Law and Policy at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies in Hainan, said the presence of a special task force showed that Washington and Manila had long cooperated on resupply operations to Second Thomas Shoal.

“Such support emboldens the Philippines and is not conducive to China and the Philippines managing their differences,” Ding said. “The US involvement has also squeezed the political space for internal coordination and decision-making within the Philippines.”

He said it was also possible that American troops could be on Philippine ships and involved in front-line action “using a covert or concealed identity to participate in Philippine maritime operations” in future.

He said the US could “only intervene [in South China Sea disputes] in a covert manner and so it took the form of a task force”.

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Philippines’ Aggressive Territorial Claims In South China Sea: A New Threat to Regional Stability

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has appointed a new Navy chief (Rear Admiral Jose Ma. Ambrosio Ezpeleta) amid tensions in the South China Sea, which include a number of maritime drills which are perceived as provocations by Beijing. One such military exercise earlier this month, for instance, included drills to simulate seizing an island in the disputed South China Sea. Last month Manila held military exercises in the same Sea together with Canada, Japan, and the United States, as part of Exercise Sama Sama 2024. The Philippines are also officially expanding their maritime claims. These developments are all connected.

Philippines’ Aggressive Territorial Claims In South China Sea: A New Threat to Regional Stability (archived)

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What’s Really Going On In the South China Sea Between the Philippines and China

With duplicity, the Philippines hot-headedly positions itself as the US’ cannon fodder + More

What does the Philippines want – a stable and conducive environment for its peaceful development, or to be trapped in the unpredictable game of geopolitics? Recently, the country’s actions and words have been filled with duplicity and complexity, but the trend is discernible – the Philippines is hot-headedly positioning itself as a vanguard, bridgehead, and even cannon fodder for the US.

With duplicity, the Philippines hot-headedly positions itself as the US’ cannon fodder

Related:

8th PH-CN BCM in the South China Sea: A Step Forward, But What Lies Ahead

Philippines to develop islands in South China Sea + More

Tonto Strikes Again: Preempts Task Force, DFA + and an update (Philippines)

Philippines to develop islands in South China Sea + More

MANILA (Reuters) – The Philippines will develop islands in the South China Sea that it considers part of its territory to make them more habitable for troops, Manila’s military chief Romeo Brawner told reporters on Monday.

Philippines to develop islands in South China Sea – military chief

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Philippines continues S.China Sea provocations

South China Sea: Philippines defence minister calls out China official for ‘gutter-level talk’, to ramp up military ties

The US-backed NED candidate Willy Lie from the NED-backed party won

YouTube Playlist: InfoOp – SCS

Work in progress: Philippines Game Changer Analysis (PDF)

US policies pushing China, Philippines to brink of conflict

There’s an information war going on in the South China Sea (using embedded journalists, civil society activists, and various US think tanks). The Philippines plans on building a military base, on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, to replace the BRP Sierra Madre (which is about to break apart). Marcos is also re-starting oil exploration, in the Reed Bank, which is part of the disputed territory.