The draft published by lawmakers does not include any explicit U.S. security guarantees — long one of Kyiv’s primary demands. However, the agreement “guarantees new deliveries of American weapons, including air defense systems — their cost will be credited to a joint fund,” according to Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Ukraine is nearing a deal to grant the U.S. access to its rare minerals in exchange for continued political and, perhaps, military support, though negotiations face challenges since 40% of these resources are in Russian-occupied territory. With Trump pushing for access to these minerals while also engaging in talks with Russia, Ukraine faces uncertainty over its strategic partnerships as it navigates its war effort and economic future.
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That being said, information about what materials Ukraine has and where they are located presents snags for negotiations. Namely, Ukraine can’t promise access to all its materials when a reported 40% of the minerals are under land currently occupied by Russia.
On top of that, the main motivation for Zelensky agreeing to swap minerals is likely to be in return for military aid from America—which Ukrainian officials say has not been explicitly penciled into the draft.
Despite this, yesterday sources in Kyiv confirmed the terms to share materials—including oil and gas—are almost agreed after months of negotiation.
Elbridge Colby and Keith Kellogg both served in the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) in Iraq in 2003 under Paul Bremer and are now part of the Trump administration. The CPA, which acted as the transitional government overseeing post-war reconstruction in Iraq, faced significant criticism for its mishandling of reconstruction funds. Over $8 billion allocated for Iraq’s rebuilding remains unaccounted for, including more than $1.6 billion in cash that was discovered in a basement in Lebanon.
Meanwhile, in Iraq, Chinese companies are actively engaged in constructing a wide range of infrastructure projects, including housing units, universities, commercial centers, schools, health facilities, and power stations. They have also played a key role in developing the Nasiriya airport.
The Financial Times reported that “Two of the ideas were laid out in Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s ‘victory plan’ with Trump specifically in mind”, with these being the proposal for Ukraine’s partners to extract its resource wealth and Ukraine’s offer to replace some US troops stationed in Europe. Trump probably really does appreciate these two points since they align with his interests. The first would help him recoup some of the US’ investment in Ukraine while the second could facilitate his “Pivot (back) to Asia”.
As a businessman, Trump doesn’t want his country to lose out on promising business opportunities in Ukraine after investing several hundred billion dollars there, hence why he’s unlikely to abandon his predecessor’s proxy war completely even though he’s much more likely to try to reach a deal. Senator Lindsey Graham estimated over the summer that Ukraine has $10-12 trillion worth of critical minerals under its soil. Even if it “only” has $1 trillion, then it’s still attractive enough to catch Trump’s attention.
After briefly presenting his Victory Plan at the seat of Ukraine’s national sovereignty, the Verkhovna Rada, Volodymyr Zelensky has continued his tour to try to win the support of the people and institutions that really matter – his foreign partners. In Brussels, the Ukrainian president sought to curry favour with one of his main suppliers, the current support of the Ukrainian state, the European Union, whose Parliament once again welcomed him as a hero. “The last time you were here,” wrote Roberta Metsola, “I promised you our unwavering support on your country’s path to EU membership. Today I am proud to welcome you to the House of European Democracy as the leader of a candidate country for EU membership.” “Ukraine is Europe,” she said, deliberately confusing the continent with the political bloc. However, with EU entry long understood as a decision that has been made and that it is simply a matter of time, Zelensky’s speech did not focus on the benefits of the Union or the enormous benefit that will be obtained by admitting Ukraine into the European family, but on the continuation of his campaign to formalize the Victory Plan as a possible way out of the war. Kiev is acting in the same way that in the last decade it has managed to institutionalize the nationalist discourse, previously only characteristic of a part of the country, as the only possible national discourse. Ukraine is working to achieve the same objective and to make its plan – in reality a wish list that its allies must help it to fulfill and not a roadmap to achieve them – appear as a path to a just peace.
“We hear the word negotiations from our partners, but the word justice is heard much less often,” Volodymyr Zelensky said yesterday in his speech to the Ukrainian Rada. “Ukraine is open to diplomacy, but honest diplomacy. That is why we have the Peace Formula. It is a guarantee of negotiating without forcing Ukraine to accept injustice. Ukrainians deserve a decent peace,” the Ukrainian president continued in his presentation of the Victory Plan to deputies and other authorities of the country’s political and security apparatus. Kiev’s intentions are clear: to achieve a position of strength in which Ukraine does not have to yield to Russian demands. Nothing indicates that there has been any change in the way of thinking of the Ukrainian leadership, which has always understood justice as something that only the part of the population under its control deserves, without those on the other side of the front and whose territories it aspires to recover having a say in the future of the country.
“According to open-source data, the total value of Ukraine’s former mineral resource base is estimated at almost $14.8 trillion, but $7.3 trillion of this is now in the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics. That means almost half of the former Ukraine’s national wealth is in Donbass!” Medvedev explained in a lengthy Telegram post.
“To get access to the coveted minerals, the Western parasites shamelessly demand that their wards wage war to the last Ukrainian. They are already directly voicing such intent without hesitation,” Russia’s former leader added.
Ukraine is a key potential supplier of rare earth metals, including titanium, lithium, beryllium, manganese, gallium, uranium, zirconium, graphite, apatite, fluorite, and nickel. Despite the war, Ukraine holds the largest titanium reserves in Europe (7% of the world’s reserves). It is one of the few countries that mine titanium ores, crucial for the aerospace, medical, automotive and marine industries.
Before February 2022, Ukraine was a key titanium supplier for the military sector. It also has one of Europe’s largest confirmed lithium reserves (estimated at 500,000 tons), vital for batteries, ceramics, and glass. Ukraine is the world’s 5th largest gallium producer, essential for semiconductors and LEDs, and has been a major producer of neon gas, supplying 90% of the highly purified, semiconductor-grade neon for the US chip industry.
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