Chokepoints Are The Focus Of A New Cold War

By Captain John Konrad (gCaptain) In 1883, Alfred Thayer Mahan laid out the brutal truth of global power: Whoever rules the waves rules the world. He wasn’t just talking about fleets of warships. He was talking about chokepoints—the narrow passages through which the vast majority of the world’s trade must pass. Control them, and you don’t need to launch an invasion. You can starve an economy and restrict military sealift without ever firing a shot.

Chokepoints Are The Focus Of A New Cold War

Related:

Trump orders military to plan invasion of Panama to seize canal: report

US Seizing Panama & Greenland Aimed at China (archived)

Stranglehold: The Context, Conduct and Consequences of an American Naval Blockade of China

Offshore Control: A Proposed Strategy for an Unlikely Conflict

Cuckold Europe, prop up dictators: Trump’s global plot laid bare

Cuckold Europe, prop up dictators: Trump’s global plot laid bare

A month after Donald Trump’s second inauguration and the geopolitical global upheaval that may be unprecedented, one thing is clear: The president is an American sovereigntist, not an isolationist. Once this is understood, Trump’s seemingly wild upturning of the geopolitical order actually makes sense.

Sovereigntists are illiberal internationalists. They came of age after World War I, preventing the US from joining the League of Nations (the predecessor of the United Nations). At the time, American sovereigntists regarded the league as a stalking horse for global governance, anti-colonial independence movements, black internationalists, left-wing political movements and liberal Christians.

Today’s sovereigntists aim to weaken non-Western international associations that seek a more democratic international order. They make common cause with similar forces; Giorgia Meloni of Italy and Hungary’s Viktor Orban, for example. Their aim is an illiberal international geopolitical order where domestic political systems resemble “competitive authoritarianism” – multi-party elections embedded in a rigged legal and political environment. Under this model, the media and the machinery of government are used to attack opponents and co-opt critics.

Trump wants the US, not China, to write the technical standards of the global economy. Control over these standards creates lock-in effects in finance, telecommunications, space, robotics, bioengineering, nanotechnologies, and advanced materials and manufacturing methods. That means full-spectrum rivalry with China. If economic control is not possible, the plan B goal is global economic separation from China.

For Trump to achieve these goals, there are three key frontlines: Eastern Europethe Middle East and Taiwan.

South China Sea: Philippines’ anti-ship missile base puts Scarborough Shoal in cross hairs (more information)

What the article left out is; to shoot far, the Philippine military needs to see far. However, the Philippines don’t have any over-the-horizon (OTH) radar, military satellites, AWACS planes or other long-range ISR capabilities, to make use of the full range of the BrahMos missile. Without it the missile is limited to the range of its available ISR assets, which are measured in just dozens of kilometers.

However, if a BrahMos missile is ever launched against a long-range Chinese target, it will be easy to guess who would have supplied the essential Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) information and target identification to the Philippine military.

StarBoySAR

South China Sea: Philippines’ anti-ship missile base puts Scarborough Shoal in cross hairs

Even if the Philippines lacks the advanced communications, intelligence, and targeting systems needed to maximise the BrahMos’ capabilities, it could still leverage US support in these areas, Koh said, citing the sinking of Russia’s Moskva warship by Ukraine in 2022, which he said was achieved thanks to “targeting support provided by Kyiv’s allies, chiefly the Americans”.

The flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, the Moskva became the largest warship lost in combat since the second world war when it was hit by two Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles in April 2022. US officials later told the media that the Pentagon had provided intelligence that led to the ship’s sinking.

For the Philippines, the BrahMos missiles are “significant game changers” [🙄], according to security strategist Chester Cabalza, president of the International Development and Security Cooperation think tank in Manila.

However, Don McLain Gill, an international-studies lecturer at De La Salle University in the Philippines, questioned whether the BrahMos purchase alone would deliver robust deterrence against China.

“It will be crucial for the BrahMos to be supplemented by efficient intelligence, surveillance, target-acquisition and reconnaissance, which is critical to track targets and ensure they can be used by command,” he said, warning Manila must invest further to maximise the missiles’ deterrent value.

Previously:

Philippines Builds First BrahMos Anti-Ship Missile Base Facing South China Sea

US policies pushing China, Philippines to brink of conflict

US policies pushing China, Philippines to brink of conflict

The China-Philippines maritime dispute does not, in of itself, reflect anything approaching an existential conflict. It has, however, become an increasingly dangerous proxy and potential flashpoint for underlying China-U.S. tensions in the South China Sea.

FYI, this article is full of disinformation. I’m posting it to point out that there’s an information war going on in the South China Sea (using embedded journalists, civil society activists, and various US think tanks). The Philippines plans on building a military base, on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, to replace the BRP Sierra Madre (which is about to break apart). Marcos is also re-starting oil exploration, in the Reed Bank, which is part of the disputed territory.

Related:

US Shapes Philippines into Southeast Asia’s “Ukraine”

Why the US is Picking a Fight with China in the South China Sea

Beijing rejects tribunal’s ruling in South China Sea case

Paul Reichler, of the law firm Foley Hoag LLP, who who coordinated the Philippines’ legal team, said: “The tribunal’s ruling not only benefits the Philippines, it also benefits other states bordering the South China Sea like Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam. If China’s nine-dash line is invalid as to the Philippines, it is equally invalid to those states and, indeed, the rest of the international community.”

Paul S. Reichler