Mark Sleboda on the new reality unfolding in Ukraine after Russia’s Kharkov retreat

Loud in the press this week has been the major development in the NATO-Russia proxy war in Ukraine, what is described as a massive “Russian defeat” in the Kharkov region of east Ukraine. Russia’s manpower-lite and artillery-heavy military formation was forced to organize a withdrawal from Kharkov, facing multi-axis and casualty-heavy attacks from the Kiev forces, which unlike the now-destroyed Ukrainian military of some months ago, are fully equipped and operated as a NATO army manned by Ukrainians. Despite evacuation efforts, this leaves behind Eastern Ukrainians who will pay brutally with their lives as the Kiev bureaucracy implements what it has already announced as cleansing for anyone deemed a Russia-collaborator. There is now a massive movement of both NATO-Ukrainian and pro-Russian military building up in the south and south-east, preparing for a storm in the next weeks.

To assess this situation, “On the Barricades” has the pleasure of bringing repeat-guest Mark Sleboda onto the show for a two-part series this weekend. Mark is a former US Navy specialist, military expert, and academic who attended the London School of Economics before becoming a senior lecturer at Moscow State University.

In this first episode, hosts Maria Cernat and Boyan Stanislavski enlist Mark’s military analytical expertise to help piece together interpretations of the events in Kharkov, and to dissect the big questions that follow. He tells us about what’s happening on the ground, what military entities are engaged, what the events represent in terms of the Moscow and Kiev-NATO strategy, and what changes to the dynamic could come out of this now unstable balance of forces. We also hear updates about the role of Belarus in the war, the relevance of the renewed Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict, as well as the general mood of the Russian population toward the Putin regime and their attitude toward escalating the conflict to a full-out mobilization for war with NATO.

Mark Sleboda on the new reality unfolding in Ukraine after Russia’s Kharkov retreat via The Barricade

Ilya Ponomarev: Who is the person who wants to form a guerrilla force to overthrow Putin?

Ilya Ponomarev: Who is the person who wants to form a guerrilla force to overthrow Putin? (original)

After the Moscow assassination, Ponomarev’s call to arms is now understood as a starting signal for the inner-Russian partisan struggle. In the appeal, Ponomaryov explains why he did not – like Navalny – go to prison or flee to the West. He consciously recalls the resistance against National Socialism: “The German anti-Nazi underground didn’t flee, they fought. The Poles didn’t flee either, but prepared the Warsaw Uprising. And even if fate would have it otherwise, they fought Anti-fascists like Willy Brandt. And that’s an example for me to follow.” The later German chancellor was active in the resistance from Norway during the Nazi era.

On social media, Ponomarev has many fans among Putin’s critics. In their eyes, the bomb attack in Moscow looks like the first spectacular act of armed resistance. Some already consider him the Che Guevara of the Russian resistance. However, there are doubts in Western intelligence circles whether the “National Republican Army” really already exists, or whether Ponomarev just wants to claim it. It is also possible that he is using Ukraine’s military aid to drive the war into Russia as a pin.

Ponomaryov is very active in propaganda and runs a Russian-language television news channel called “February Morning” and an Internet news service “Rospartisan”. He reports on anti-government “partisan” activities in Russia, such as attacks on military recruitment centers. Instructions on how to make bombs are sometimes given.

In his youth, Ponomarev was a member of the Communist Party. He comes from a Soviet political dynasty, his mother Larisa Ponomarewa was a member of the Federation Council. His uncle Boris Ponomaryov was secretary for international relations of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, his grandfather Nikolai Ponomaryov was the Soviet ambassador to Poland. The family comes from Novosibirsk, the largest city in Siberia. The young Ilja was already a successful start-up entrepreneur as a teenager, studied physics and economics and quickly made a career for himself at the oil company Yukos. By 30, he was a Russian digital generation star careerist, even becoming the national coordinator for the High-Tech Parks Task Force, a public-private project which should mobilize up to $6 billion to develop a network of small startup incubators. At the age of 32 he became a deputy in the Russian State Duma.

Ponomaryov was one of those young Russians who believed ten or twenty years ago that Russia could embark on a democratic, liberal, digital future. Early on he advocated a consistent separation of powers, he criticized old power cliques and their corruption, organized protests against another term in office for Vladimir Putin and advanced to become a crosshead and regime critic in parliament. He suddenly became known in March 2014 when he found the courage to be the only member of the Duma to vote against the annexation of Crimea, which was universally acclaimed in Russia. The result – 445 yes votes, one no vote – made the world sit up and take notice: “Who is this one vote?” asked the “New York Times” and made the Putin critic from Siberia world famous on the one hand and the target of Putin’s revenge on the other. He became the object of a propaganda campaign, including a huge poster in central Moscow branding him a “traitor to the country”. Ponomarev fled first to the United States, then to Ukraine. Even then, he warned that Putin would not leave it at Crimea, but would eventually launch a war of aggression. “Unfortunately, I was right,” Ponomaryov said eight years later in a CNN interview with Christiane Amanpour.

Ponomarev is now likely to become the target of Russian assassination attempts. He is already under the protection of Ukrainian security agencies after former Russian MP Denis Voronenkov was shot dead in Kyiv in 2017. Voronenkov was on his way to meet Ponomaryov when he was assassinated*. He too had criticized Russia’s annexation of Crimea as illegal. Ponomaryov is aware of his position and role in the midst of the escalation of violence and describes it thus: “The way to freedom leads only through purification through fire.”

Mark Sleboda suggested that Ilya Ponomarev was associated with the CIA and had made the rounds at neoconservative think tanks.

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Russian Operations in Ukraine (August 4, 2022): featuring Mark Sleboda

Aug 4, 2022 | Joining me for this update is Mark Sleboda, an international relations and security expert based in Russia, and US Navy veteran.

We will discuss the latest developments in Ukraine including a recent Pentagon briefing and Western media claims made in recent days.

Russian Operations in Ukraine (August 4, 2022): featuring Mark Sleboda (Odysee) via The New Atlas.

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