Greenlighting deep strikes inside Russia is all risk, no reward

Greenlighting deep strikes inside Russia is all risk, no reward

“The Biden administration’s decision to allow Ukraine to use longer-range ATACMS to launch strikes deep inside of Russia is strategically unwise and operationally unnecessary. The move will not meaningfully improve Ukraine’s military position, but it will intensify U.S. and NATO entanglement in the conflict and worsen the risk of Russian escalation—including possible retaliation on U.S. or European targets.

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76 days to get it right in Ukraine

76 days to get it right in Ukraine (translation)

With less than two weeks to go until the US presidential election, and with polls showing a tie that will make the result depend on a small number of swing states, states that could fall to one side or the other and change the course of events, the electoral issue marks the global political agenda and represents a special element of uncertainty in the case of Ukraine. All the certainties that have existed until now under the leadership of Joe Biden, who has managed relations with Kyiv for two terms, since he was in charge of the White House during the years of the Obama administration, will disappear the moment it is announced who will come to power next January. Although, without a doubt, a victory for Trump would be more worrying for Zelensky, who apparently did not get the desired support from the Republican candidate at the meeting held during the Ukrainian president’s last visit to the United States, neither would a victory for Kamala Harris mean the end of concerns. The scant presence of the war in Ukraine in the campaign is compounded by speculation about the candidate’s cold relationship with Zelensky, despite the fact that it was Harris who attended the peace summit in Switzerland representing the White House. However, beyond slogans such as “support Ukraine as long as necessary,” the candidate has not at any time suggested what specific policy she would pursue with regard to the war or the relationship with Russia. Electoral needs are marked by issues of national policy and neither the Republican nor the Democrat candidate are making long speeches detailing their proposals.

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New $1.1 Billion Arms Package for Ukraine Includes 18 HIMARS Launchers, as The U.S. and Europe are running out of weapons to send to Ukraine

New $1.1 Billion Arms Package for Ukraine Includes 18 HIMARS Launchers

The HIMARS that the US has been sending to Ukraine are equipped with missiles that have a range of about 50 miles. But that can change, and Kyiv is requesting Army Tactical Missile Systems, which have a range of 190 miles, but Washington has been hesitant to send the longer-range missiles. Russia has warned that providing such arms would cross a “red line.”

Related:

The U.S. and Europe are running out of weapons to send to Ukraine

In the U.S. weapons industry, the normal production level for artillery rounds for the 155 millimeter howitzer — a long-range heavy artillery weapon currently used on the battlefields of Ukraine — is about 30,000 rounds per year in peacetime.

The Ukrainian soldiers fighting invading Russian forces go through that amount in roughly two weeks.

Is the U.S. ability to defend itself at risk?

The short answer: no.

The U.S. has essentially run out of the 155 mm howitzers [M777?] to give to Ukraine; to send any more, it would have to dip into its own stocks reserved for U.S. military units that use them for training and readiness. But that’s a no-go for the Pentagon, military analysts say, meaning the supplies reserved for U.S. operations are highly unlikely to be affected.

Source: CSIS.

Biden Authorizes Additional $550 Million Military Aid for Ukraine + Are There Enough Guided Rockets For HIMARS To Keep Up With Ukraine War Demand?

Biden Authorizes Additional $550 Million Military Aid for Ukraine

The new aid was authorized by the presidential drawdown authority, which allows Biden to send Ukraine weapons and ammunition directly from US military stockpiles. The funds were pulled from the $40 billion Ukraine aid bill that Biden signed back in May, which is meant to last through September 30.

Related:

Are There Enough Guided Rockets For HIMARS To Keep Up With Ukraine War Demand?

So in essence, at a pace suggested by Hertling, Ukraine’s GMLRS monthly burn rate would equal about 29% of the entire planned U.S. procurement for the next five years, not withstanding production rates of the ER GMLRS which have yet to be set.

Given those numbers, what does Ukraine’s use of HIMARS portend for that nation, and the U.S., which might find itself needing these systems in case of a future fight with China, Russia or some other adversary?

“If each of 16 HIMARS fires three rockets per day, that’s 48 a day or 1,440 per month. 10,000 rockets would last well into 2023 at that rate. On the other hand, if the Ukrainians get the 100 HIMARS they are requesting and each one fires three rockets per day, that’s 300 per day or 9,000 per month.”