Tag: Military Intelligence

The Postwar Vision That Sees Gaza Sliced Into Concentration Camps

Tina Marie (Ms. Cat)

The Postwar Vision That Sees Gaza Sliced Into Security Zones

A plan that is gaining currency in the government and military envisions creating geographical “islands” or “bubbles” where Palestinians who are unconnected to Hamas can live in temporary shelter while the Israeli military mops up remaining insurgents. 

Other members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party are backing another, security-focused plan that seeks to slice up Gaza with two corridors running across its width and a fortified perimeter that would allow Israel’s military to mount raids when it deems them necessary. 

The ideas come from informal groups of retired army and intelligence officers, think tanks, academics and politicians, as well as internal discussions inside the military. While Israel’s political leadership has said almost nothing about how the Gaza Strip will look and be governed after the heaviest fighting ends, these groups have been working on detailed plans that offer a glimpse of how Israel is thinking about what it calls the Day After. 

The plans—whether or not they get adopted in full—reveal hard realities about the aftermath that rarely get voiced. Among them, that Palestinian civilians could be confined indefinitely to smaller areas of the Gaza Strip while fighting continues outside, and that Israel’s army could be forced to remain deeply involved in the enclave for years until Hamas is marginalized.

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According to people familiar with the effort, it aims to work with local Palestinians who are unaffiliated with Hamas to set up isolated zones in northern Gaza. Palestinians in areas where Israel believes Hamas no longer holds sway would distribute aid and take on civic duties. Eventually, a coalition of U.S. and Arab states would manage the process, these people said. 

Ziv, who oversaw Israel’s exit from Gaza in 2005, proposes that Palestinians who are ready to denounce Hamas could register to live in fenced-off geographic islands located next to their neighborhoods and guarded by the Israeli military. This would entitle them to reconstruction of their homes. 

The process would be gradual, and in the longer term, Ziv envisages bringing the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority back to Gaza as a political solution, with the whole process taking roughly five years as the military fights Hamas insurgents. Under his plan, Hamas could be part of Gaza’s administration, if it frees all the hostages held there and disarms, becoming purely a political movement.

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Northern Gaza, under the plan, would remain without reconstruction, and Palestinians there wouldn’t be allowed back to their homes until Hamas’s miles-long tunnel network was destroyed. Like the bubbles plan, it promotes the notion of de-escalation zones where aid can be delivered by the Israeli military or by international forces, but stops short of articulating an idea for governance. 

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Another plan published by the Washington-based Wilson Center* also advocates a coalition-style approach to the conflict but refrains from calling for Israel to consider the adoption of a Palestinian state. It says the U.S. should establish an international police force to manage security in Gaza and over time hand the job to a yet-to-be-defined Palestinian administration. 

Robert Silverman**, a former U.S. diplomat in Iraq who is a co-author, said his team discussed the plan with Israeli officials for months, even changing parts of the proposal to make it more agreeable to Israel’s war objectives and political dynamics, but it stalled with the prime minister’s office.

“He believes we finish the war first and then plan the postwar,” Silverman said of Netanyahu. “All the people who have done this before say that’s a huge mistake.”

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Another document, drafted by Israeli academics, that has made its way to the prime minister’s desk draws on historical precedents in rebuilding the war zones in Germany and Japan after World War II, and more recently in Iraq and Afghanistan. It considers how to tackle Hamas’s Islamist doctrine by learning from the defeat of ideologies such as Nazism and that of Islamic State. 

Related:

Strategic Hamlet Program

The Strategic Hamlet Program (SHP; Vietnamese: Ấp Chiến lược) was a plan by the government of South Vietnam in conjunction with the US government and ARPA during the Vietnam War to combat the communist insurgency by pacifying the countryside and reducing the influence of the communists among the rural population through the creation of concentration camps.

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The Strategic Hamlet Program was unsuccessful, failing to stop the insurgency or gain support for the government from rural Vietnamese, it alienated many and helped contribute to the growth in influence of the Viet Cong. After President Ngo Dinh Diem was overthrown in a coup in November 1963, the program was cancelled. Peasants moved back into their old homes or sought refuge from the war in the cities. The failure of the Strategic Hamlet and other counterinsurgency and pacification programs were causes that led the United States to decide to intervene in South Vietnam with air strikes and ground troops.

The *Wilson Center plan isn’t much better. 👇🏻

Related:

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South China Sea: Philippines’ anti-ship missile base puts Scarborough Shoal in cross hairs (more information)

Tina Marie (Ms. Cat)

What the article left out is; to shoot far, the Philippine military needs to see far. However, the Philippines don’t have any over-the-horizon (OTH) radar, military satellites, AWACS planes or other long-range ISR capabilities, to make use of the full range of the BrahMos missile. Without it the missile is limited to the range of its available ISR assets, which are measured in just dozens of kilometers.

However, if a BrahMos missile is ever launched against a long-range Chinese target, it will be easy to guess who would have supplied the essential Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) information and target identification to the Philippine military.

StarBoySAR

South China Sea: Philippines’ anti-ship missile base puts Scarborough Shoal in cross hairs

Even if the Philippines lacks the advanced communications, intelligence, and targeting systems needed to maximise the BrahMos’ capabilities, it could still leverage US support in these areas, Koh said, citing the sinking of Russia’s Moskva warship by Ukraine in 2022, which he said was achieved thanks to “targeting support provided by Kyiv’s allies, chiefly the Americans”.

The flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, the Moskva became the largest warship lost in combat since the second world war when it was hit by two Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles in April 2022. US officials later told the media that the Pentagon had provided intelligence that led to the ship’s sinking.

For the Philippines, the BrahMos missiles are “significant game changers” [🙄], according to security strategist Chester Cabalza, president of the International Development and Security Cooperation think tank in Manila.

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However, Don McLain Gill, an international-studies lecturer at De La Salle University in the Philippines, questioned whether the BrahMos purchase alone would deliver robust deterrence against China.

“It will be crucial for the BrahMos to be supplemented by efficient intelligence, surveillance, target-acquisition and reconnaissance, which is critical to track targets and ensure they can be used by command,” he said, warning Manila must invest further to maximise the missiles’ deterrent value.

Previously:

Philippines Builds First BrahMos Anti-Ship Missile Base Facing South China Sea

Reuters Exposes Washington’s Global Disinformation Campaign: The Rest of the Story

Tina Marie (Ms. Cat)

In a recent article, Reuters confirms what many knew for years, that the United States government and its various departments and agencies have been conducting global disinformation campaigns targeting nations it seeks to undermine, and whose governments it seeks to overthrow.

Reuters Exposes Washington’s Global Disinformation Campaign: The Rest of the Story

Previously:

Philippines: Pentagon ran secret anti-vax campaign to undermine China during pandemic

Philippines: ACT solon wants to probe alleged US Pentagon secret anti-vax campaign

Tina Marie (Ms. Cat)

MANILA, Philippines — A lawmaker on Sunday called on the leaders of the House of Representatives to initiate a thorough probe into the alleged secret anti-inoculation campaign of the United States (US) military aimed at undermining China during the COVID-19 pandemic.

ACT solon wants to probe alleged US Pentagon secret anti-vax campaign (archived)

Previously:

Philippines: Pentagon ran secret anti-vax campaign to undermine China during pandemic

After leaving Congress early, Mike Gallagher joins Packers-Microsoft venture capital firm

Tina Marie (Ms. Cat)

After leaving Congress early, Mike Gallagher joins Packers-Microsoft venture capital firm

Gallagher’s move comes after media reports initially linked Gallagher to the data analytics company Palantir after he announced in late March he would leave Congress in mid-April — before the end of his current term. But when asked by the Journal Sentinel last month about the Palantir rumors, Gallagher dismissed them as “propaganda.

Related:

TitletownTech: Welcomes former U.S. Representative Mike Gallagher as senior strategic advisor

The Gaza Maritime Route Was Netanyahu’s Idea, Maritime Aid Corridor Will Advance the Overthrow of Hamas, & When Will US boots be on the Ground in Gaza?

Tina Marie (Ms. Cat)

Diplomatic source to ‘Post’: Gaza maritime route was Netanyahu’s idea

According to the source, on October 22, two weeks following the war’s outbreak, Netanyahu discussed with President Biden the concept of “delivering humanitarian aid to Gaza via the sea, contingent on an Israeli inspection in Cyprus.”

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Years before the Gaza war, Israel Katz, now the Foreign Minister, had drawn up plans for a maritime route via Cyprus involving a floating island.

The project was never executed. But he revived it after the war began on October 7. 

Related:

Gallant: Maritime Aid Corridor Will Advance Overthrow of Hamas

“The process is designed to facilitate aid directly to civilians and in this way, it advances [our goal] of overthrowing Hamas’ rule in Gaza,” the minister said.

“We will facilitate aid via the maritime route that is coordinated with the United States (security and humanitarian aspects), with the assistance of the United Arab Emirates on the civilian side,” he said. “It will include the appropriate inspections in Cyprus, and the goods will be brought by international organizations with American assistance.”

Air, sea, and land: When will US boots be on the ground in Gaza? Authored by Yonah Jeremy Bob*

Then suddenly, last Thursday, US President Joe Biden announced that the US would also supply maritime aid to Gaza, including building a makeshift artificial port off the coast.

This already imposes a long-term US military footprint in Israeli-Gaza territorial waters rather than a “mere” series of fly-throughs.

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How hard would it be for a small complement of US Marines accompanying the aid deliveries to travel a kilometer or so into Gaza and to place themselves squarely in the middle of where Israel does not want them?

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Moreover, US forces have been and are already on the ground.

US generals and counter-terror experts have been in and out of Israel since the start of the war, including visits to Gaza.

There are also a variety of US military personnel regularly in Israel on military and intelligence exchange programs.

US attempts to reform the PA

Speaking of intelligence, multiple times when a decision was made to try to improve and reform the Palestinian Authority security forces, it was the CIA and US special forces who came to the West Bank and Gaza to help train and prepare these forces.

It seems quite likely that the Jewish state, at some point, will ask Washington to perform the same service again in Gaza.

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A broader version could involve a US-led peacekeeping force handling internal Gaza security for an indefinite period until enough Gazan Palestinians disconnected from Hamas can be convinced that taking on this role will not lead to them being slaughtered later by a resurgent Hamas.

From this perspective, the question about US forces on the ground in Gaza seems less of an if than it does a when, how many, and under more or less coordinated circumstances with Israel.

*Yonah Jeremy Bob was raised in Baltimore and graduated from Columbia University and Boston University Law School, respectively. He previously worked for the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Israeli Military International Law Division, and the Israeli Justice Ministry. – Wikipedia

Army cutting force by 24K in major restructuring

Tina Marie (Ms. Cat)

They can’t fill the positions, so they’re eliminating them!

Army cutting force by 24K in major restructuring

“We’re moving away from counterterrorism and counterinsurgency; we want to be postured for large-scale combat operations,” Army Secretary Christine Wormuth told reporters Tuesday morning at an event in Washington, D.C., hosted by the Defense Writers Group.

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To do that, the service seeks to phase out around 32,000 roles, with about 3,000 cuts from special operations forces and another 10,000 from Stryker brigade combat teams, cavalry squadrons, infantry brigade combat teams and security force assistance brigades, the latter meant to train foreign forces.

In addition, the service found 10,000 engineer jobs and related positions linked to counterinsurgency missions it can cut; it will slash about 2,700 roles from units that don’t usually deploy; and it will decrease the number of transients, trainees, holdees and students by approximately 6,300. 

Officials stressed that the planned reductions are “to authorizations (spaces), and not to individual soldiers (faces),” meaning already empty roles. 

“The Army is not asking current soldiers to leave,” according to the document. “As the Army builds back end strength over the next few years, most installations will likely see an increase in the number of soldiers actually stationed there.” 

The plan also looks to add back 7,500 troops in missions seen as more critical, such as air-defense and counterdrone units and five new task forces for better capabilities in intelligence, cyber, and long-range strikes.  

Three of the task forces would fall under U.S. Army Pacific — with the Indo-Pacific theater considered the most important for national security in the years ahead — one will be within U.S. Army Europe-Africa, and the last likely focused on U.S. Central Command in the Middle East. 

The plans indicate a major shift within the Army as the military anticipates future conflicts as large-scale operations against more advanced adversaries such as China, Russia, Iran or North Korea. They also reflect the service’s struggles with recruiting, a phenomenon happening across the military.