US Ammunition Supplies Dwindle as Ukraine War Drains Stockpiles

The United States will soon be unable to provide Ukraine with certain types of ammunition that are essential to Kyiv’s battle against Russia’s invasion, as supplies are being used up faster than they can be replaced.

US Ammunition Supplies Dwindle as Ukraine War Drains Stockpiles

Previously:

07-24 – West Can Not Sustain Prolonged Conflict In Ukraine, Says Pentagon Supplier

09-30 – Pentagon stockpiles ‘uncomfortably low’ due to Ukraine arms transfers: DoD

10-10 – Whoops, the U.S. Sent So Many Missiles to Ukraine That It Depleted Its Own Stockpiles

Biden Details New $625 Million Arms Package for Ukraine in Zelensky Call

Biden Details New $625 Million Arms Package for Ukraine in Zelensky Call

The new $625 million package is being provided through the presidential drawdown authority, which allows Biden to send arms to Ukraine directly from US military stockpiles. A stopgap funding bill President Biden signed into law last week included $3.7 billion for this authority. It also included $12.3 billion for other military and economic aid for Ukraine, bringing total US spending on the war to about $67.5 billion, a number that’s higher than Russia’s entire military budget for 2021.

Pentagon stockpiles ‘uncomfortably low’ due to Ukraine arms transfers: DoD

Arms makers are licking their chops as defense officials worry about shortfalls in weapons stockpiles.

Pentagon stockpiles ‘uncomfortably low’ due to Ukraine arms transfers: DoD

Related:

Ukraine War Depleting U.S. Ammunition Stockpiles, Sparking Pentagon Concern

In recent weeks, the level of 155 mm combat rounds in U.S. military storage have become “uncomfortably low,” one defense official said. The levels aren’t yet critical because the U.S. isn’t engaged in any major military conflict, the official added. “It is not at the level we would like to go into combat,” the defense official said.

In the U.S., it takes 13 to 18 months from the time orders are placed for munitions to be manufactured, according to an industry official. Replenishing stockpiles of more sophisticated weaponry such as missiles and drones can take much longer.

Speaking on an earnings call July 19, Jim Taiclet, chief executive of Lockheed Martin Corp., said the Pentagon has yet to put the contracts in place or coordinate with industry to buy more supplies, a process that often takes two to three years.

Biden Authorizes Additional $550 Million Military Aid for Ukraine + Are There Enough Guided Rockets For HIMARS To Keep Up With Ukraine War Demand?

Biden Authorizes Additional $550 Million Military Aid for Ukraine

The new aid was authorized by the presidential drawdown authority, which allows Biden to send Ukraine weapons and ammunition directly from US military stockpiles. The funds were pulled from the $40 billion Ukraine aid bill that Biden signed back in May, which is meant to last through September 30.

Related:

Are There Enough Guided Rockets For HIMARS To Keep Up With Ukraine War Demand?

So in essence, at a pace suggested by Hertling, Ukraine’s GMLRS monthly burn rate would equal about 29% of the entire planned U.S. procurement for the next five years, not withstanding production rates of the ER GMLRS which have yet to be set.

Given those numbers, what does Ukraine’s use of HIMARS portend for that nation, and the U.S., which might find itself needing these systems in case of a future fight with China, Russia or some other adversary?

“If each of 16 HIMARS fires three rockets per day, that’s 48 a day or 1,440 per month. 10,000 rockets would last well into 2023 at that rate. On the other hand, if the Ukrainians get the 100 HIMARS they are requesting and each one fires three rockets per day, that’s 300 per day or 9,000 per month.”

West Can Not Sustain Prolonged Conflict In Ukraine, Says Pentagon Supplier

US defence industry boss calls for clarity on what arms Ukraine needs

Kathy Warden, chief executive of Northrop Grumman, one of the top five “prime” contractors in the US, warned that weapons stockpiles had not been built to service a lengthy war.

“I wouldn’t necessarily say that I’ve heard we’re running out, but if you do project forward that we’re going to want to sustain these levels of commitments for another couple of years — that’s certainly not what anyone had built stockpiles to accommodate,” she said.

We think in the long term, there’s going to be a requirement to replace Russian air combat capability — fixed wing and rotary wing aircraft” for the Ukrainians, the industry executive said.*

Northrop was prepared to make investments, including expanding factories “ahead of a contract”, said Warden, but cautioned that industry needed to “get an indication that if we build it, the demand will come”.

It can take years for a defence company to source parts, assemble, test, and deliver a system.

Northrop Grumman generates more than 80 per cent of its annual revenues from contracts with the US government, including key roles on programmes such as the F-35 fighter jet where it provides parts for the weapons system and avionics. It also led the industry team for NASA’s James Webb space telescope.

Like many manufacturers, Northrop Grumman is wrestling with supply chain challenges, in particular shortages of electronic parts such as cables, connectors and power supplies. Lead times for such parts have “doubled or tripled,” said Warden.

*What a co-inky-dink?!

Title borrowed from:

Ukraine Update: West Can Not Sustain Prolonged Conflict In Ukraine, Says Pentagon Supplier