A Narrow Pacific Waterway is at the Heart of U.S. Plans to Choke China’s Vast Navy +

Reuters reprint: A Narrow Pacific Waterway is at the Heart of U.S. Plans to Choke China’s Vast Navy

Until recently, locals say, this smallest and least populous province of the Philippines was a peaceful backwater. But geography dictates that it is now on the frontline of the great power competition between the United States and China for dominance in the Asia-Pacific region. The islands sit on the southern edge of the Bashi Channel, a major shipping lane between the Philippines and Taiwan that connects the South China Sea with the Western Pacific.

This year’s exercises revealed how the U.S. and its Philippine ally intend to use ground-based anti-ship missiles as part of efforts to deny the Chinese navy access to the Western Pacific by making this waterway impassable in a conflict, Reuters reporting shows. These missiles could also be used to attack a Chinese fleet attempting to invade Taiwan or mount a blockade against the democratically governed island.

Recent Chinese maneuvers show how access to the Bashi Channel is critical for Beijing’s plans in the Pacific. In June, a powerful Chinese navy aircraft carrier battle group used this passage to enter the Western Pacific before launching an extended series of exercises south of Japan, according to Japanese military tracking data.

Related:

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China’s stealth destroyer lurks 124 miles off Sydney’s coast

A Chinese naval task force, consisting of the Type 055 guided-missile destroyer Type 055, a Type 054A frigate, and a Type 903A replenishment ship, has been spotted operating approximately 124 miles [200 kilometers] east of Sydney, Australia.

China’s stealth destroyer lurks 124 miles off Sydney’s coast

Previously:

Chinese Navy Helicopter Intercepts Philippine Cessna Over Scarborough Shoal + Embedded Journalism

The aerial incident follows a week of multilateral activities between the Philippines and its allies in the South China Sea. These drills included back-to-back joint patrols with American, Japanese, Australian and Canadian forces. A U.S. Air Force bomber task force mission composed of two B-1Bs and Philippine Air Force fighter jets drilled off Luzon earlier this month. The Royal Australian Air Force also reported an unsafe interception incident with a People’s Liberation Army Air Force J-16 fighter over the contested waters last week.

The marriage of RAND and SeaLight

A Caricature of Marxism and Imperialist Economism: Monism And Dualism

Slowly, but surely, I’m going through both of the following RAND publications. I just recently noticed that “Understanding and Countering China’s Maritime Gray Zone Operations” was posted over at SeaLight on the 12th of December. Ray Powell, from SeaLight, is quoted at least 14 times in the first publication. So far, I’ve seen RAND “recommend” the same tactics as they’ve deployed in the Philippines; civilian society organizations, embedded journalism, information warfare, influencers, and online trolls.

USS Beloit (LCS-29). Photo by EJ Hersom.

I’ve always known that they would try to expand their information operation to the other countries that are in ASEAN, just by following the SeaLight podcast. If not their information operation, regime change and terrorism (in Balochistan and Myanmar). I’ve also noticed that Powell has been referring to the Philippines’ “transparency initiative” as “non-violent resistance,” lately (RAND refers to it as “assertive transparency”). Ironic, considering that they’ve already succeeded in overthrowing the government of Bangladesh and are now attempting it in Cambodia, India and Pakistan. For those who don’t know about the regime change asset Gene Sharp and his neoliberal “nonviolence,” see the links on this page. Unfortunately, I don’t have as much time to dedicate to this right now due to other obligations.

Understanding and Countering China’s Maritime Gray Zone Operations | RAND

How the United States Can Support Allied and Partner Efforts to Counter China in the Gray Zone: Affirmative Engagement | RAND

RAND and SeaLight document (work in progress)

PART 2

Part 3a: RAND and SeaLight – Taiwan Relations Act

RAND and SeaLight Part 3b: Four Ways China Is Growing Its Media Influence in Southeast Asia

For Want of an Oiler: The Fragile State of America’s Afloat Logistics Fleet

What’s Going On With Shipping?

Salvatore R. Mercogliano, Ph.D. – 

The Navy oiler – a tanker designed to refuel other ships while at sea – shuddered from the hit. Almost immediately, water began to flood into the engine room and at least one of the ship’s rudders was out of service. The damage and flow of water proved challenging for the crew. As the only US Navy fuel ship in the area capable of supporting a carrier strike group came to a stop, the vulnerability of the thin lifeline of American afloat logistics became apparent. How would an entire carrier strike group remain operational without fuel for its planes and escorts? With one stroke, the hitting power of a substantial portion of the U.S. Navy was reduced.

For Want of an Oiler: The Fragile State of America’s Afloat Logistics Fleet

MacArthur’s Last Stand Against a Winless War

If war breaks out in Asia, the U.S. won’t send ground troops. Take note, Philippines!

The Strategy of Denial, pp 117-118

MacArthur’s Last Stand Against a Winless War

Never get involved in a land war in Asia, MacArthur had told Kennedy, because if you do, you will be repeating the same mistake the Japanese made in World War II—deploying millions of soldiers in a futile attempt to win a conflict that cannot be won.

Kennedy appreciated MacArthur’s soothing judgment on Cuba (and would soon change the military’s top leadership—perhaps in keeping with MacArthur’s views), but then shifted the subject to Laos and Vietnam, where communist insurgencies were gaining strength. The Congress, he added, was pressuring him to deploy U.S. troops in response. MacArthur disagreed vehemently: “Anyone wanting to commit ground troops to Asia should have his head examined,” he said. That same day, Kennedy memorialized what MacArthur told him: “MacArthur believes it would be a mistake to fight in Laos,” he wrote in a memorandum of the meeting, adding, “He thinks our line should be Japan, Formosa, and the Philippines.” MacArthur’s warning about fighting in Asia impressed Kennedy, who repeated it in the months ahead and especially whenever military leaders urged him to take action. “Well now,” the young president would say in his lilting New England twang, “you gentlemen, you go back and convince General MacArthur, then I’ll be convinced.” So it is that MacArthur’s warning (which has come down to us as “never get involved in a land war in Asia”), entered American lore as a kind of Nicene Creed of military wisdom—unquestioned, repeated, fundamental.  

Full video

1 vs. 29: South China Sea Electronic War Ends with US GPS Loss and Retreat (PH)

Over the vast expanse of the South China Sea, a war without gunfire quietly unfolded, its unique impact capturing the world’s attention. On June 30th, a brief yet meaningful tweet from the official Weibo account of China’s Southern Theater Command—“Thick smoke deep in the blue sea, good night”—sparked a massive online reaction, leaving netizens speculating about the secrets behind it.

1 vs. 29: South China Sea Electronic War Ends with US GPS Loss and Retreat

Related:

China-U.S. Electronic Warfare Erupts, Seen as China’s GPS Interference Rehearsal to Counter Land-Based Missiles

It can be said that China’s electronic warfare capabilities are now on par with those of the United States. However, it is noteworthy that almost every medium-sized or larger Chinese vessel is equipped with some level of electronic warfare and electronic countermeasure capabilities, a strength attributed to China’s latecomer advantage and its powerful electrical systems. This is precisely what U.S. warships lack.

US Merchant Marine Sailors Were Target Of Houthi Attack + World War II Combat Tactics Return To The Red Sea

BREAKING Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said the Iranian-backed militants fired a large number of ballistic and naval missiles and drones at a U.S. flagged ship manned by US Merchant Marine sailors who were “providing support” to Israel. No update yet from the head of the US Merchant Marine, DOT Secretary Pete Buttigieg.

US Merchant Marine Sailors Were Target Of Houthi Attack

H/T: What is Going on With Shipping?

Related:

Greyhound Day: World War II Combat Tactics Return To The Red Sea

What is clear is that the US military has repeatedly warned ship owners and officers against sharing information with journalists, Wall Street analysts, and supply chain experts. While journalists and supply chains may be under-reporting the issue, ship owners are sharing more alarming stories among themselves. This information asymmetry could lead to more ships avoiding the region, while freight forwarders, cargo brokers, and other professionals further down the supply chain may be unprepared for the full extent of the delays.