European guarantees: peace or war? (original)
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A first step towards diplomacy
Russia: Diplomacy of Force
“The image posted by Yermak, a retro-style drawing of Donald Trump grabbing a defeated Vladimir Putin by the feet, about to throw him to the mat WWE-style, reflects the current state of the Western world, as it waits for Donald Trump to destroy Russia. The childishness of the drawing may also be representative of that way of thinking.”
Diplomacy of force (Original: Diplomacia de fuerza)
Read More »US Using Israel to Provoke Iran War, Deny Responsibility, Minimize Retaliation
Satellite Photo Shows US Fighters and Bombers at Key Base for Iran
New satellite imagery reveals a significant concentration of U.S. military aircraft and bombers on the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, including strategic B-52 bombers, KC-135 tankers, F-15 fighters and a C-5M heavy transport aircraft—a buildup signaling enhanced readiness for potential operations amid regional tensions.
Satellite Photo Shows US Fighters and Bombers at Key Base for Iran
Previously:
Is Donald Trump Starting World War III with Iran?
Is Donald Trump Starting World War III with Iran?
Donald Trump apparently has decided to attack Iran. Mark this date. It is the beginning of the end of the Trump Presidency. Trump has been persuaded that the Iranian air defense is weak and that a US bombing run will eliminate any chance that Iran can build a nuclear device. He has been a victim of lies. He will shortly discover, if these attacks take place, that Iran retains a significant capability to shoot down US aircraft. In fact, I fully expect Iran will capture and put on display several US air force officers in the next week.
If Trump launches this attack, Iran will retaliate against US bases and Israel. Israel, for the first time in 77 years, will suffer devastating losses. If Trump thought the Houthis were a tough customer, he’s going to learn a hard lesson with Iran.
I have a bad feeling about this… though it could just be the Mac and Cheese staging a rebellion.
Related:
Pentagon chief authorizes voluntary departure of military dependents from Middle East
US ‘just about’ ready to lift Ukraine intel freeze, Trump says ahead of Saudi meet
US ‘just about’ ready to lift Ukraine intel freeze, Trump says ahead of Saudi meet
The U.S. is “just about” ready to lift its freeze on intelligence sharing with Ukraine, President Donald Trump said Sunday, as American and Ukrainian negotiators prepare for bilateral talks in Saudi Arabia intended to move toward a peace deal to end Russia’s three-year-old invasion.
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The U.S. delegation in Saudi Arabia will include Secretary of State Marco Rubio and national security adviser Mike Waltz. The Ukrainian team will be led by Andriy Yermak, the head of Zelenskyy’s presidential office. The U.S. side is expecting Ukraine to show willingness to make peace, Trump suggested on Sunday.
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Trump and his top officials have said that both Ukraine and Russia will be expected to make concessions in pursuit of a peace deal to end Moscow’s invasion, which itself is only the latest chapter in more than a decade of cross-border aggression.
Trump last week suggested in a post to Truth Social that he was “strongly considering large-scale sanctions” and tariffs on Russia until a deal is reached, adding that Moscow “is absolutely ‘pounding’ Ukraine on the battlefield right now.” Trump also told a joint session of Congress he had received “strong signals” that Russia is ready to make peace.
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The Kremlin has also cited a September 2022 Ukrainian decree in which Zelenskyy declared negotiations with Putin “impossible,” after Moscow claimed to have annexed four partially-occupied Ukrainian regions.
On Monday, Peskov told journalists that Russia’s read on this week’s meeting “is not important.”
“What is important here is what the United States expects at various levels,” he continued. “We have repeatedly heard statements that the U.S. expects the Ukrainians to demonstrate their desire for peace. That’s probably what everybody is waiting for. Whether the members of the Zelenskyy regime really want peace or not. Of course, this is very important and it is necessary to decide.”
Trumpism, NATO and the Ukraine war
Trumpism, NATO and the Ukraine war (original)
“Two years ago, General Mark A. Milley, then President Biden’s chief military adviser, suggested that neither Russia nor Ukraine could win the war. A negotiated solution, he argued, was the only path to peace. His comments caused a furor among senior officials. But President-elect Donald J. Trump’s victory is making General Milley’s prediction come true,” wrote The New York Times in an article published last week, part of a growing line of arguments by those who fear that the arrival of the new Republican administration will mean leaving Ukraine to its own devices. These articles, present in all major American and European media, take literally Trump’s desire to end the war and his lack of interest in the situation in Ukraine. This has also been helped by the words of JD Vance, who, from his ignorance of the conflict, has proposed a plan that can only satisfy Russia, or the exalted response of Donald Trump Jr. after the confirmation of the American permission to use Western missiles against targets on the territory of mainland Russia. Sometimes, think-tankers and experts also add Trump’s disdain for NATO or his desire not to rescue member countries that do not meet the minimum investment required by the Alliance in the event of a Russian attack.
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The World’s Not Aligning America’s Way
In recent weeks, a number of shifts in relations have taken place in far apart regions that continue to highlight that the world is not aligning America’s way.
Ukraine: Imposing the plan
After briefly presenting his Victory Plan at the seat of Ukraine’s national sovereignty, the Verkhovna Rada, Volodymyr Zelensky has continued his tour to try to win the support of the people and institutions that really matter – his foreign partners. In Brussels, the Ukrainian president sought to curry favour with one of his main suppliers, the current support of the Ukrainian state, the European Union, whose Parliament once again welcomed him as a hero. “The last time you were here,” wrote Roberta Metsola, “I promised you our unwavering support on your country’s path to EU membership. Today I am proud to welcome you to the House of European Democracy as the leader of a candidate country for EU membership.” “Ukraine is Europe,” she said, deliberately confusing the continent with the political bloc. However, with EU entry long understood as a decision that has been made and that it is simply a matter of time, Zelensky’s speech did not focus on the benefits of the Union or the enormous benefit that will be obtained by admitting Ukraine into the European family, but on the continuation of his campaign to formalize the Victory Plan as a possible way out of the war. Kiev is acting in the same way that in the last decade it has managed to institutionalize the nationalist discourse, previously only characteristic of a part of the country, as the only possible national discourse. Ukraine is working to achieve the same objective and to make its plan – in reality a wish list that its allies must help it to fulfill and not a roadmap to achieve them – appear as a path to a just peace.
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Ms. Cat’s Chronicles 
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