South China Sea: US troop aid may reassure Philippines but will prod China, analysts say

Has anyone realized that by disclosing the existence of “US Task Force Ayungin,” Biden admin implicitly recognized Philippines’ sovereignty over a disputed SCS feature?

Washington has never taken a position on SCS territories(but it has in ECS). This is a clear signal to China.*

Derek J. Grossman, RAND

South China Sea: US troop aid may reassure Philippines but will prod China, analysts say (archived)

The Philippines has said the US task force only offered support – in the form of intelligence and surveillance – and did not directly take part in its resupply missions to BRP Sierra Madre, the retired warship, but analysts suggested that China’s leadership could see it in a different light.

Zheng said the revelation about the American task force meant the US was likely to be more engaged in the drawn-out maritime conflicts in the region, even suggesting that Washington would “be the first to take part in the command and planning of Philippine maritime activities”.

Ding Duo, deputy director of the Centre for Oceans Law and Policy at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies in Hainan, said the presence of a special task force showed that Washington and Manila had long cooperated on resupply operations to Second Thomas Shoal.

“Such support emboldens the Philippines and is not conducive to China and the Philippines managing their differences,” Ding said. “The US involvement has also squeezed the political space for internal coordination and decision-making within the Philippines.”

He said it was also possible that American troops could be on Philippine ships and involved in front-line action “using a covert or concealed identity to participate in Philippine maritime operations” in future.

He said the US could “only intervene [in South China Sea disputes] in a covert manner and so it took the form of a task force”.

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Philippines’ Aggressive Territorial Claims In South China Sea: A New Threat to Regional Stability

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has appointed a new Navy chief (Rear Admiral Jose Ma. Ambrosio Ezpeleta) amid tensions in the South China Sea, which include a number of maritime drills which are perceived as provocations by Beijing. One such military exercise earlier this month, for instance, included drills to simulate seizing an island in the disputed South China Sea. Last month Manila held military exercises in the same Sea together with Canada, Japan, and the United States, as part of Exercise Sama Sama 2024. The Philippines are also officially expanding their maritime claims. These developments are all connected.

Philippines’ Aggressive Territorial Claims In South China Sea: A New Threat to Regional Stability (archived)

Related:

What’s Really Going On In the South China Sea Between the Philippines and China

South China Sea: Marcos inks laws on PH Maritime Zones, Archipelagic Sea Lanes + Responses of China and the United States

YouTube

MANILA – President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. on Friday signed laws declaring the maritime zones under Philippine jurisdiction and designating sea lanes in the country for foreign vessels and aircraft.

Marcos inks laws on PH Maritime Zones, Archipelagic Sea Lanes

Related:

South China Sea: Philippines’ legal moves reveal its expansionist goals

U.S. State Department On the Philippines Maritime Zones Act

Arnaud Bertrand’s Twitter thread (ThreadReader)

Regarding the South China Sea Arbitration:

The South China Sea Arbitration did not rule on sovereignty, and China does not recognize it because the Arbitral Tribunal lacked jurisdiction. “The Arbitral Tribunal violated the principle of state consent, exercised its jurisdiction ultra vires and rendered an award in disregard of the law. This is a grave violation of UNCLOS and general international law, Wang said.” The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) is an international treaty that establishes a legal framework for all marine and maritime activities.  The Permanent Court of Arbitration is not an agency of the United Nations. The PCA rents space in the same building as the UN’s International Court of Justice.  A Congressional Research Service report, dated August 2023, stated that the U.S. has not declared its position regarding sovereignty over any of the geographical elements that comprise the South China Sea.  

Chinese and Philippine ships collide at Sabina Shoal, a new flash point + More

Source

The incident, the first time in decades that Beijing and Manila have clashed over the Sabina Shoal, may derail efforts to lower tensions in the South China Sea.

Chinese and Philippine ships collide at Sabina Shoal, a new flash point (archived)

Related:

CCG restricts repeated Philippine vessel intrusions near South China Sea reefs

Chen Xiangmiao, director of the World Navy Research Center at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, told the Global Times on Monday that the Philippines sees Xianbin Jiao as a transfer station for its resupply missions to Ren’ai Jiao, as Xianbin Jiao is located between Ren’ai Jiao and the Philippines’ Palawan Province.

[08-16-24] Foreign Ministry Spokesperson’s Remarks on the Philippine Coast Guard Vessel’s Illegal Anchoring in the Lagoon of Xianbin Jiao

[08-14-24] Exclusive: Manila to deploy new vessel for ‘semi-permanent presence’ at China’s Xianbin Jiao, breaking its promise: source

Philippine media have hyped the China Coast Guard’s (CCG) presence in the Xianbin Jiao, but it is the Philippines that has sent the MRRV-9701 to the area in the first place. The Philippine ship anchored in the lagoon of the Xianbin Jiao in April, with a CCG ship arriving later in July.

Updated on 07-27-2024: SeaLight, formerly Project Myoushu

Powell’s storytelling:

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Philippine Sailor Severely Injured, Vessels Damaged as Chinese Block South China Sea Mission + Notes

Source

It was the Philippines that rammed the CCG!* US-funded Rappler** doesn’t mention the other soldiers who were injured.

Philippine Sailor Severely Injured, Vessels Damaged as Chinese Block South China Sea Mission

Meanwhile, a Philippine government release from the National Task Force on the West Philippine Sea stated that ships from the People’s Liberation Army Navy, China Coast Guard and Chinese Maritime Militia performed “dangerous maneuvers.” However, there is no mention of injury to Philippine personnel in the release. The statement also claimed that Chinese forces rammed and towed Philippine vessels, although it’s unclear to what extent the latter occurred during the incident. This is the first reported instance of China towing – defined as pulling, pushing or hauling – Philippine vessels in their South China Sea disputes.

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Manila escalates South China Sea row as it continues trick of ‘playing victim’ + More

Full video

Manila escalates South China Sea row as it continues trick of ‘playing victim’

According to experts, Marcos’ tough words serve domestic political purposes when he needs to shift Filipinos’ discontent over his administration’s performance on livelihood and the economy, and are also a response to the “support” from countries outside the region, including the US. 

The US is the biggest external disturbance to peace and stability in the South China Sea,” Ding said, “without instigation from US, it is more likely that China and the Philippines would manage their differences through negotiation and consultation.”

Related:

The facts and truth about Ren’ai Jiao

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