The Western response to the war in Ukraine has been a boon for US arms makers, who are cashing in on replacing stockpiles of weapons sent to Ukraine, direct sales to Kyiv, and European NATO allies increasing their military spending.
The new aid was authorized by the presidential drawdown authority, which allows Biden to send Ukraine weapons and ammunition directly from US military stockpiles. The funds were pulled from the $40 billion Ukraine aid bill that Biden signed back in May, which is meant to last through September 30.
So in essence, at a pace suggested by Hertling, Ukraine’s GMLRS monthly burn rate would equal about 29% of the entire planned U.S. procurement for the next five years, not withstanding production rates of the ER GMLRS which have yet to be set.
Given those numbers, what does Ukraine’s use of HIMARS portend for that nation, and the U.S., which might find itself needing these systems in case of a future fight with China, Russia or some other adversary?
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“If each of 16 HIMARS fires three rockets per day, that’s 48 a day or 1,440 per month. 10,000 rockets would last well into 2023 at that rate. On the other hand, if the Ukrainians get the 100 HIMARS they are requesting and each one fires three rockets per day, that’s 300 per day or 9,000 per month.”
Ukraine is planning to tour an exhibition of destroyed Russian military vehicles across Europe, as it strives to maintain public attention on the conflict.
In this month’s update, New Cold War’s regular contributor and analyst Dmitriy Kovalevich describes what has been happening on the ground in Ukraine throughout May. In his comprehensive account, based on reports including those from the Ukrainian media, Kovalevich clearly demonstrates how the western establishment’s narrative differs strikingly from the reality and why Zelensky is now saying that, despite bellicose statements from countries like Great Britain and Canada, the conflict can only end through diplomacy.
Interestingly, the inclusion of Kenya, Liberia, Morocco and Tunisia may be less about Russia and more about combating China’s growing influence on the continent, said Elizabeth Shackelford, a former State Department official who served in several East African countries.
“China has been a strategic partner to both Kenya and Liberia, but the US still holds greater sway in each. Kenya is an influential country on the continent, so getting it on board with the west is important,” said Shackelford, now with the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
“Inviting these countries to this meeting signals that their position on [Ukraine] matters, to the US and to the broader coalition,” including host Germany, a major economic power, she added. “This is a level of engagement that China’s transactional relationship doesn’t offer. Don’t forget, it’s an election year in Kenya. International engagement on major global issues at the invitation of the US is a good look.”
One thing is for sure: Unless Kiev starts a massive military campaign in the Donbass, or engages in a serious provocation against Russia, the Kremlin is unlikely to start a war against Ukraine. And even if a war breaks out, Russia’s actions are expected to be very calculated, limited and carefully coordinated with its Western partners, as part of moves toward a “stable and more predictable relationship” between Moscow and Washington.
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