
What Is China Up to in the Taiwan Strait?
Read More »Reuters reprint: A Narrow Pacific Waterway is at the Heart of U.S. Plans to Choke China’s Vast Navy
Until recently, locals say, this smallest and least populous province of the Philippines was a peaceful backwater. But geography dictates that it is now on the frontline of the great power competition between the United States and China for dominance in the Asia-Pacific region. The islands sit on the southern edge of the Bashi Channel, a major shipping lane between the Philippines and Taiwan that connects the South China Sea with the Western Pacific.
This year’s exercises revealed how the U.S. and its Philippine ally intend to use ground-based anti-ship missiles as part of efforts to deny the Chinese navy access to the Western Pacific by making this waterway impassable in a conflict, Reuters reporting shows. These missiles could also be used to attack a Chinese fleet attempting to invade Taiwan or mount a blockade against the democratically governed island.
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Recent Chinese maneuvers show how access to the Bashi Channel is critical for Beijing’s plans in the Pacific. In June, a powerful Chinese navy aircraft carrier battle group used this passage to enter the Western Pacific before launching an extended series of exercises south of Japan, according to Japanese military tracking data.
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Read More »As global attention focuses on China and Japan, Tokyo and Manila are quietly deepening their economic and “defense” ties.
The Pentagon’s acquisition system is being overhauled into a “Warfighting Acquisition System,” turbocharging weapons production, slashing bureaucracy, and empowering officials to deliver arms at “wartime speed.” Portfolio Acquisition Executives now wield sweeping authority, startups are courted like prom queens, and the defense industrial base is being rebranded as Silicon Valley with missiles.
So much for the “peace president”—Trump’s arsenal of freedom looks more like an IPO for war, where venture capital meets missile launchers and bureaucrats cosplay as battlefield commanders.
Forging the Arsenal of Freedom
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The following quotes are from an article I’m currently working on for Venezuela.
Sir Walter Raleigh, a leading figure in early English colonization, once declared, “For whosoever commands the sea commands the trade; whosoever commands the trade of the world commands the riches of the world, and consequently the world itself.“
Read More »CSIS’ Ryan Berg’s 2025 statement before the House Homeland Security Committee Subcommittee on Transportation and Maritime Security warned that Chinese port projects in adversarial states could offer a “permissive environment” for future PLA Navy operations.
[Aaron-Matthew Lariosa, 10-01-2025] Manila Recovers Chinese Underwater Drone Operating in Philippine Waters
Read More »Note that Scarborough Shoal is in disputed territory: What’s Really Going On In the South China Sea Between the Philippines and China.
Scarborough Shoal Incident 2.0: The PLAN Inches Closer to War (archived)
A Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) destroyer and China Coast Guard (CCG) cutter collided 10.5 nautical miles east of Scarborough Shoal in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ) on the morning of 11 August. It marked the second time China has been embarrassed by the Philippines in these waters. This time, the results appear to have been deadly, as at least four members of the CCG were either severely injured or killed during the violent collision.
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The latest incident appears to have been set in motion by an order from a Chinese higher authority, most likely the Central Military Commission’s (CMC’s) Joint Operations Center (JOC), to disrupt the Philippine Coast Guard’s “Kadiwa ng Bagong Bayaning Mangingisda (KBBM)” program. The KBBM initiative was unveiled in May 2025 with the intent to provide Philippine fishermen with food security and resupply at sea [See KBBM, below]. Analysis of Automatic Identification System (AIS) data indicates many CCG cutters were arrayed around Scarborough Shoal on 11 August, and as Philippine CG cutters entered waters 20–30 nm around the shoal, CCG and PLAN ships converged on the Philippine cutters to disrupt their food supply operations.
For more than an hour, PLAN guided-missile destroyer Guilin and CCG cutter 3104 conducted a high-speed pursuit of the Philippine Coast Guard cutter BRP Suluan. Based on the events during this pursuit, it appears the CMC JOC ordered the use of physical force to stop the Philippine Coast Guard from their mission. According to Armed Forces of the Philippines Chief of Staff General Romeo Brawner, “Our assessment is that the real objective of the PLA Navy ship is to ram our Philippine Coast Guard (vessel). That is also (the) assessment of our Philippine Coast Guard.”
FYI, the author of the above article is one of the founding members of the hawkish Committee on the Present Danger: China. You’ll also find information on the first Scarborough Shoal incident in here, also known as the Scarborough Shoal standoff: August 11 SCS – James E. Fanell – SeaLight.
Background:
Read More »The ‘Foreign Policy Consensus’ Is Alive and Well in Washington
by José Niño, Libertarian Institute
Brian Berletic, a former U.S. Marine now residing in Thailand, believes something bigger might be at play with Trump’s foreign policy agenda. The talk of foreign policy restraint vis-a-visa Russia is merely a facade. Berletic pointed out that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s “division of labor” framework during his February 2025 address in Brussels will only increase tensions with Russia.
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By Captain John Konrad (gCaptain) In 1883, Alfred Thayer Mahan laid out the brutal truth of global power: Whoever rules the waves rules the world. He wasn’t just talking about fleets of warships. He was talking about chokepoints—the narrow passages through which the vast majority of the world’s trade must pass. Control them, and you don’t need to launch an invasion. You can starve an economy and restrict military sealift without ever firing a shot.
Related:
Trump orders military to plan invasion of Panama to seize canal: report
US Seizing Panama & Greenland Aimed at China (archived)
Stranglehold: The Context, Conduct and Consequences of an American Naval Blockade of China
Offshore Control: A Proposed Strategy for an Unlikely Conflict
China’s new hypersonic missile-capable submarine challenges US in Philippines: Report
According to the report, the new submarine is capable of carrying advanced hypersonic missiles, allowing for covert strikes beyond enemy defenses and the option to deploy nuclear warheads if needed. Working with other military forces, it will help deter enemy carrier groups and bases within the first island chain.
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