Future Global Order Pivots on Ukraine Proxy War

Russia’s gradual advance in the Donbass region appears to be forming an operational encirclement of Ukraine’s last major defensive line—its “fortress belt”—a development that could decide not only the fate of the war but also the shape of the emerging global order.

Future Global Order Pivots on Ukraine Proxy War (archived)

Related:

Russia’s Swift March Forward in Donbass [Pokrovsk is the prize]

The Battle of Pokrovsk Begins

Weeb Union

Ukraine War Map Looks ‘Grim’ for Zelensky as Russian Offensive Accelerates

Russia’s offensive has concentrated around the Donetsk logistics hub of Pokrovsk as well as Kurakhove. Moscow captured Vuhledar in October and advanced quickly to Velyka Novosilka.

“The Ukrainians have had issues in stabilizing the front here for a long time, and in November, the pace of Russian advance there only quickened even from September and October,” Kastehelmi told Newsweek.

Previously:

Russia’s Swift March Forward in Donbass [Pokrovsk is the prize]

Lansdale native, Marine veteran killed in action Sunday as volunteer fighter with Ukraine Army

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Lansdale native, Marine veteran killed in action Sunday as volunteer fighter with Ukraine Army

Former USMC 1st Sgt. Corey John Nawrocki was killed during a recon and sabotage mission near Bryansk, Russia.

According to The Moscow Times, Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) claimed responsibility Monday for killing four “saboteurs” of a Diversion Reconnaissance Group who attempted to cross into Bryansk with the A3449 military unit of UkrainePer reports, he was issued a military ID on Sept. 4, 2024.

Nawrocki, a North Penn High School graduate, spent 20 years with the U.S. Marine Corps, serving multiple tours of duty, finally retiring in 2021. He was a gunnery sergeant at the Marine Barracks Washington and served with the 1st Battalion, 4th Marines B-Co. and the 3rd Light Armored Reconnaissance Blackfoot Co.

In February, Nawrocki, who received a Bronze Star for valor, was the distinguished keynote speaker at the Veterans Appreciation Brunch at Generations of Indian Valley in Souderton.

Related:

A3449: International Legion of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine

The International Legion of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, is a separate unit of foreign fighters subordinated to the Main Directorate of Intelligence and the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine. The unit consists of several foreign units structured at various levels, typically being structured as either a battalion, or a squadron split into several teams – functioning completely separate from the regular International Legion under the Ground Forces.

Ilya Ponomarev (Free Russia Legion)

Russia’s Swift March Forward in Donbass [Pokrovsk is the prize]


Source: The Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project
 Note: As of Oct. 29
 By The New York Times

Russia’s Swift March Forward in Ukraine’s East

In October, Russia made its largest territorial gains since the summer of 2022, as Ukrainian lines buckled under sustained pressure.

Over the past month, Russian forces have seized more than 160 square miles of land in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, the main theater of the war today. That has allowed them to take control of strategic towns that anchored Ukrainian defenses in the area, beginning with Vuhledar in early October. This past week, battle has raged in Selydove, which now appears lost.

Ultimately, experts say, these gains, among the swiftest of the war, will help the Russian army secure its flanks before launching an assault on the city of Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub for Ukrainian forces in the Donbas.


Source: New York Times analysis of data from the Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project
 Note: As of Oct. 29
By The New York Times

H/T: Flash : [The New York Times] Russia’s Swift March Forward in Ukraine’s East [Donbass]

Previously:

Ukraine Faces a Double Threat if Russia Takes Pokrovsk

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Ukraine Faces a Double Threat if Russia Takes Pokrovsk

Ukraine Faces a Double Threat if Russia Takes Pokrovsk

Pokrovsk, a once-vibrant city of 80,000 people, is the object of a Russian encircling move that began in July and is creeping within miles of the city as every day passes. The city has served as a key logistics and transportation hub for Ukrainian military operations in eastern Ukraine and is the gateway to conquering the rest of Donetsk Oblast-and potentially on to even bigger prizes such as Dnipro, Ukraine’s fourth-largest city before the war.

But Pokrovsk’s fall could have an even more insidious impact on Ukraine’s ability to keep fighting: The city is the source of most of the coal used for the country’s steel and iron industry, once the backbone of the Ukrainian economy and still its second-largest sector, though production has fallen to less than one-third of its pre-war levels. That metallurgical coal is needed to produce pig iron, which is what feeds the majority of Ukraine’s old steel furnaces and a significant chunk of its industrial exports. A healthy steel industry also pays a big share of Ukraine’s tax take, helping fund an economy that operates hand-to-mouth these days.

“Without steel plants, the Ukrainian economy will die. It is a very, very important part of the economy,” said Stanislav Zinchenko, chief executive of GMK Center, an Ukraine-based industrial consultancy.

The NATO “solution”

The NATO “solution”

The focus of political and media attention has inevitably turned from Europe to the Middle East, where the United States, through the Secretary of the Pentagon, has insisted on “Israel’s right to defend itself,” has welcomed the assassinations of Hezbollah leaders carried out by means of massive bombings in Beirut, and has given explicit approval to the ground operation with which Tel Aviv and Washington claim to want to “dismantle the attack infrastructure along the border to ensure that the Lebanese Hezbollah cannot carry out attacks in the style of October 7 against communities in northern Israel.” The precedent of the last twelve months in Gaza, the West Bank, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon foreshadows what the ways of defending oneself against Israel will be and that the United States will continue to justify any excess, selective assassination or massacre, while any response, such as that which occurred yesterday with the launching of Iranian missiles against Israeli military bases, will be considered an unacceptable escalation. And although Ukraine’s public concern for securing priority war status has not yet begun, any escalating war could affect Kiev, especially when it comes to imposing its discourse of existential war on the West as a collective.

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