South China Sea: Philippines’ anti-ship missile base puts Scarborough Shoal in cross hairs (more information)

What the article left out is; to shoot far, the Philippine military needs to see far. However, the Philippines don’t have any over-the-horizon (OTH) radar, military satellites, AWACS planes or other long-range ISR capabilities, to make use of the full range of the BrahMos missile. Without it the missile is limited to the range of its available ISR assets, which are measured in just dozens of kilometers.

However, if a BrahMos missile is ever launched against a long-range Chinese target, it will be easy to guess who would have supplied the essential Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) information and target identification to the Philippine military.

StarBoySAR

South China Sea: Philippines’ anti-ship missile base puts Scarborough Shoal in cross hairs

Even if the Philippines lacks the advanced communications, intelligence, and targeting systems needed to maximise the BrahMos’ capabilities, it could still leverage US support in these areas, Koh said, citing the sinking of Russia’s Moskva warship by Ukraine in 2022, which he said was achieved thanks to “targeting support provided by Kyiv’s allies, chiefly the Americans”.

The flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, the Moskva became the largest warship lost in combat since the second world war when it was hit by two Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles in April 2022. US officials later told the media that the Pentagon had provided intelligence that led to the ship’s sinking.

For the Philippines, the BrahMos missiles are “significant game changers” [🙄], according to security strategist Chester Cabalza, president of the International Development and Security Cooperation think tank in Manila.

However, Don McLain Gill, an international-studies lecturer at De La Salle University in the Philippines, questioned whether the BrahMos purchase alone would deliver robust deterrence against China.

“It will be crucial for the BrahMos to be supplemented by efficient intelligence, surveillance, target-acquisition and reconnaissance, which is critical to track targets and ensure they can be used by command,” he said, warning Manila must invest further to maximise the missiles’ deterrent value.

Previously:

Philippines Builds First BrahMos Anti-Ship Missile Base Facing South China Sea

Sean Gervasi, 1992 lecture: The US Strategy to Dismantle the USSR

Source

Sean Gervasi, 1992 lecture: The US Strategy to Dismantle the USSR

Related RAND Corporation documents:

Economic factors affecting Soviet foreign and defense policy: a summary outline

The Costs of the Soviet Empire

Sitting on bayonets : the Soviet defense burden and the slowdown of Soviet defense spending

Moscow’s Economic Dilemma: The Burden of Soviet Defense

Exploiting ‘fault lines’ in the Soviet empire: an overview

Update: Philippines Game Changer Analysis 03-21-2024

I’m tired, right now, but I wanted to update on this. It’s also available on my documents page. I’ve combined a couple of other documents with it, that I was working on. To be honest, I’m getting burned out on it. I might polish it up, at a later date, as it’s 36 pages.

Indonesia’s feared ex-general Prabowo claims victory in presidential election + Notes

Indonesia’s feared ex-general Prabowo claims victory in presidential election

But the likely victory of Prabowo — an ex-general who was kicked out from the army and subjected to a two-decade ban from the U.S. over human rights violations — raises fears of the world’s third-largest democracy sliding backward into authoritarian rule.

Related:

3 things you should know about Indonesia’s presidential elections

Continuity and its risks


Prabowo is expected to largely continue the policies of President Widodo, or “Jokowi,” as Indonesians call him. President Widodo is not up for reelection as he’s serving his final term.

Through his two five-year terms, Indonesia’s economy — Southeast Asia’s largest — has grown at about 5% a year. His infrastructure building, cash and food assistance to the poor and health and education policies have been popular.

Indonesia is the world’s largest producer of nickel, used in making electric vehicle batteries, and Jokowi has barred the export of raw nickel, to help Indonesia move up the value chain from mining to manufacturing.

Prabowo is Suharto’s son-in-law. He received training in the 1980s from the U.S. military at Fort Benning, Ga. (now Fort Moore) and Fort Bragg, N.C. (now Fort Liberty).

Indonesia’s presidential election emerges as key battleground in US-China rivalry

Read More »

Updated: Philippines Game Changer Analysis – Project Myoushu – South China Sea

I’ve uploaded the latest update to my paper on Project Myoushu to my documents page. It’s not finished yet, but I have polished it up some and added more resources. I’ve pushed back my deadline as I haven’t been able to work on it as much as I’ve wanted to.

Previous Posts Regarding the China-Philippines Territorial Dispute in the SCS:

Territorial disputes in the South China Sea

China dealing with terrorism in line with law + More

URUMQI (China): China has been dealing with the issue of terrorism in the autonomous region of Xinjiang in accordance with law and the untoward incidents here have witnessed a decline since 2016.

China dealing with terrorism in line with law

Related:

[01-24] World community urged to take ‘decisive’ action to stop Chinese genocide against Uyghurs

Washington: As China’s human rights record came up for Universal Period Review (UPR) at the UN, the Government-in-Exile of East Turkistan, also known as Xinjiang Province in China, has said the international community must move beyond the diplomatic means and urgently take “decisive” and “tangible” actions to stop genocide against Uyghur Muslims.

[01-24] The Islamic State’s South Asian Branches are Spearheading an Anti-China Campaign

[11-23] “All Static and Noise” anti-China propaganda film about Uyghurs

*Xinjiang*