Ukraine’s Mystic Kherson Offensive Did Not, And Will Not Happen

There has been much talk in ‘western’ media about a Ukrainian offensive in the southern Kherson region. However most of the claims made about it seem to be divorced from the observable realities on the ground. The detailed look below provides that there is no such offensive and that there is little chance that there will ever be one.

Ukraine’s Mystic Kherson Offensive Did Not, And Will Not Happen

Remains Of Missile That Could Only Be Launched By NATO Jets Found By Russian Forces In Ukraine

Remains Of Missile That Could Only Be Launched By NATO Jets Found By Russian Forces In Ukraine

Although US officials have been denying direct involvement in Ukraine, claiming that it’s supposedly limited to intelligence sharing and the so-called “lethal aid”, new disturbing reports have appeared, indicating that the US and NATO aren’t only providing their vast ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) capabilities to the Kiev regime, but they might be involved in the fighting as directly as they could possibly be. Multiple reports have surfaced that the remains of a US-made AGM-88 HARM (High-speed Anti-radiation Missile) have been found by Russian forces. AGM-88 is a tactical air-launched anti-radiation missile designed to home in on transmissions coming from air defense radar systems.

On Sunday, August 7, numerous sources on the Telegram social media platform posted images showing what appears to be the wreckage of an AGM-88 HARM. As of this writing, there has been no official confirmation that an AGM-88 missile has ever been supplied to the Kiev regime, although, on July 28, its Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov claimed the supply of such missiles has been negotiated by the Neo-Nazi junta. The remains of the missile were reportedly found close to the positions of the Russian Armed Forces. It’s very likely that Russian forces shot down the missile, although it’s unclear which air defense system could’ve been used. The maximum launch range of the newer variants of the AGM-88 is said to be up to 150 kilometers, which would imply it had to be launched from within Kiev regime-controlled airspace.

Related:

U.S. Confirms Air-Launched Anti-Radiation Missiles Sent To Ukraine

“I would just point to two things. One, you know, a lot was made about the MiG-29 issue several months ago, not very much has been noticed about the sheer amount of spare parts and other things that we’ve done to help them actually put more of their own MiG-29s in the air and keep those that are in the air flying for a longer period of time. And then also, in recent PDA [Presidential Drawdown Authority] packages we’ve included a number of anti-radiation missiles that can be fired off of Ukrainian aircraft. They can have effects on on Russian radars and other things.”

The Undersecretary of Defense also specifically said that the missiles had been part of previous PDA packages. President Joe Biden can only exercise this so-called “drawdown authority,” which you can read more about here, to transfer items already in U.S. inventory. HARMs, including older models no longer in active service, would definitely be eligible for transfer to Ukraine through a drawdown authorized by President Biden.

“Air launch is ideal for the AGM-88 as it provides for far better kinetic performance (longer range and speed). It also allows for a far better, elevated sensing position to organically detect the presence and general direction, or even geolocation, of a threat emitter. The AGM-88 could work with relatively minimal integration, potentially leveraging a federated interface, such as e-tablet, for very basic functionality. Ukraine’s fighters are Soviet-era machines and totally lack the right interfaces, including the basic bus architecture, for modern NATO-compatible weaponry. But it’s possible a relatively crude modification could have been adapted for this single weapon. There is also the possibility of a clandestine transfer of Soviet-era aircraft from NATO states that have been upgraded with NATO-standard bus architecture and adaptable avionics that could provide an interface for the HARM.”

There is another possibility that Kahl could be referring to Soviet-era missiles, such as the Kh-31 or Kh-58, that are already compatible with certain Ukrainian aircraft. The U.S. military or Intelligence Community could have had some number of Kh-31s or similar missiles, acquired as part of so-called “Foreign Materiel Exploitation” (FME) efforts or through other means, that it then transferred to the Ukrainain Air Force. The U.S. government is known to have already sent Soviet and Russian-made Mi-17 helicopters, weapon systems, and other equipment to Ukraine from its FME stockpiles and other sources. Again, however, this seems much less likely given the other available evidence.

It’s worth noting that, during the thaw in U.S.-Russian relations following the collapse of the Soviet Union, in the 1990s, McDonnell Douglas (and later Boeing) did work with Russian firm Zveda-Strela to develop a derivative of the Kh-31 for U.S. military use high-speed targets, as you can read more about here. It’s unclear whether or not there are any of those MA-31 aerial targets are still in U.S. inventory. Regardless, they would have to be adapted to the anti-radiation missile application even if they were.

West Can Not Sustain Prolonged Conflict In Ukraine, Says Pentagon Supplier

US defence industry boss calls for clarity on what arms Ukraine needs

Kathy Warden, chief executive of Northrop Grumman, one of the top five “prime” contractors in the US, warned that weapons stockpiles had not been built to service a lengthy war.

“I wouldn’t necessarily say that I’ve heard we’re running out, but if you do project forward that we’re going to want to sustain these levels of commitments for another couple of years — that’s certainly not what anyone had built stockpiles to accommodate,” she said.

We think in the long term, there’s going to be a requirement to replace Russian air combat capability — fixed wing and rotary wing aircraft” for the Ukrainians, the industry executive said.*

Northrop was prepared to make investments, including expanding factories “ahead of a contract”, said Warden, but cautioned that industry needed to “get an indication that if we build it, the demand will come”.

It can take years for a defence company to source parts, assemble, test, and deliver a system.

Northrop Grumman generates more than 80 per cent of its annual revenues from contracts with the US government, including key roles on programmes such as the F-35 fighter jet where it provides parts for the weapons system and avionics. It also led the industry team for NASA’s James Webb space telescope.

Like many manufacturers, Northrop Grumman is wrestling with supply chain challenges, in particular shortages of electronic parts such as cables, connectors and power supplies. Lead times for such parts have “doubled or tripled,” said Warden.

*What a co-inky-dink?!

Title borrowed from:

Ukraine Update: West Can Not Sustain Prolonged Conflict In Ukraine, Says Pentagon Supplier

Hezbollah: Flying drones to Karish gas field conveyed message to Israel

Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah says its recent flying of three unarmed drones toward the Karish gas field was aimed to warn Israel not to conduct any extraction operation prior to resolving a long-standing maritime border dispute between Beirut and the regime in Tel Aviv.

Hezbollah: Flying drones to Karish gas field conveyed message to Israel

Related:

Israel’s Karish Offshore Gas Field: Facts and Figures:

Meanwhile, Israel, Egypt, and the European Union are expected to sign a memorandum of understanding on increasing gas exports, though it is difficult to see what immediate practical effect this will have. Israel’s Ministry of Energy will also open another round of bidding for licenses to explore in its EEZ. The degree of interest shown in this round will indicate how international energy companies currently regard the attractiveness of Israeli prospects.

China warns of US-led “provocative” military actions in South and East China Seas

Chinese authorities this week warned the US and its close allies, Canada and Australia, of serious dangers of armed conflict arising from confrontational actions by their military aircraft in the East China Sea near Taiwan and close to Chinese facilities in the South China Sea.

China warns of US-led “provocative” military actions in South and East China Seas

Related:

US, China on Collision Course Over Taiwan