[2014] Stratfor CEO George Friedman on the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis

Stratfor [shadow CIA] CEO George Friedman on the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis

– What is the goal of US policy in the Ukrainian direction?

– The Americans have had a very consistent foreign policy for the past 100 years. Its main goal is to prevent any power from concentrating too much power in its hands in Europe. At first, the United States sought to prevent Germany from dominating Europe, then they prevented the strengthening of the influence of the USSR.

The essence of this policy is as follows: to maintain the balance of power in Europe for as long as possible, helping the weaker side, and if the balance is about to be significantly upset, to intervene at the very last moment. So the United States intervened in the First World War after the abdication of Nicholas II in 1917, preventing Germany from strengthening. And in World War II, the United States opened a second front only very late (in June 1944), after it became clear that the Russians were gaining the upper hand over the Germans.

At the same time, the United States considered the most dangerous potential alliance between Russia and Germany. It would be a union of German technology and capital with Russian natural and human resources.

The United States was interested in forming a pro-Western government in Ukraine. They saw that Russia was on the rise and sought to prevent it from consolidating its position in the post-Soviet space. The success of pro-Western forces in Ukraine would make it possible to contain Russia.

Russia calls the events of the beginning of the year a US-organized coup d’état. And it really was the most overt coup d’état in history.

– And what, from your point of view, is the meaning of American sanctions? Russian authorities say the US wants to bring about regime change.

“The purpose of the sanctions is to hurt Russia with minimal damage to the US and a little more damage to the EU so that it capitulates to American demands.

“The interests of the Russian Federation and the United States in relation to Ukraine are incompatible with each other”

Doubts, Death and Democracy: Mikhail Gorbachev’s Bitter-Sweet Legacy

By Deborah L. Armstrong

Mikhail Sergeyevich Gorbachev, the eighth and final leader of the Soviet Union, is dead at the age of 91.

He survived 31 years longer than the country of his birth, which he dissolved in 1991 despite a referendum of the people, who overwhelmingly voted to keep the USSR up and running.

Doubts, Death and Democracy: Mikhail Gorbachev’s Bitter-Sweet Legacy

Europe’s Coming Winter From Hell: Thanks for Your Sanctions War, Washington!

Source: Caitlin Johnstone

Europe’s impending depression is not to be discounted in terms of its relevance to this side of the Atlantic pond. Since the turn of the century, US exports to the European Union have soared from $12.3 billion per month to $30.4 billion. That latter amounts to $365 billion on an annual basis.

Needless to say, when European GDP descends into a double-digit slide, demand for US exports will plunge, causing declines in production and employment on this side of the Atlantic.

Europe’s Coming Winter From Hell: Thanks for Your Sanctions War, Washington!

Russia Confounds the West by Recapturing Its Oil Riches + Yellen discusses Russia oil price cap as Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi visits US

Moscow is raking in more revenue than ever with the help of new buyers, new traders and the world’s seemingly insatiable demand for crude

Russia Confounds the West by Recapturing Its Oil Riches

Related:

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that a failure to place a price cap on Russian oil would hurt the global economy.

Yellen discusses Russia oil price cap as Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi visits US

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Russian Allegations of Rampant Nazism in Europe

by Gilbert Doctorow

A couple of weeks before Vladimir Putin announced his ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine, he met in the Kremlin with Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz. At their joint press conference following the meeting, Putin mentioned in passing that Ukraine is controlled today by neo-Nazis. This remark was famously ridiculed by Scholz as “laughable,” thereby earning for him the Kremlin’s utter contempt. German-Russian relations have undergone a sharp deterioration ever since, with Germany gradually stepping up its supplies of cutting-edge lethal weaponry to Kiev and Russia, in its internal political discussions, placing Germany alongside the United States and Britain as de facto ‘co-belligerents’ which may be subjected to Russian missile attacks if the war escalates further.

Russian Allegations of Rampant Nazism in Europe

A widely cited report predicting doom for the Russian economy has come under scrutiny from economists

By Margarita Lyutova. Abridged translation by Sam Breazeale, Meduza, 8/10/22

In late July, a team of researchers from Yale published a report titled “Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy.” Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the same team has maintained a list of international companies that have ceased operations in Russia in response to the war. The project is led by management and corporate responsibility expert Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, a professor at the Yale School of Management and the founder of Yale’s Chief Executive Leadership Institute. The report has been cited widely in recent weeks, but Sonnenfeld is neither an economist nor a Russia specialist, and experts have raised doubts about some of the report’s claims. Economic journalist Margarita Lyutova explains why the researchers’ conclusions might be worth taking with a grain of salt.

Meduza: A widely cited report predicting doom for the Russian economy has come under scrutiny from economists

Related:

Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy

Moscow’s New Found Independence + More

Moscow’s New Found Independence

Hudson noted, however, that “the biggest beneficiary” of Russia having been laden with sanctions is Washington. This is because Europe, which is heavily reliant on Russian energy, is faced with simultaneous energy and food crises, thus leaving it with little ability to pay attention to other matters.

“Basically, Washington doesn’t care if Russia wins the war [in Ukraine], because the US has succeeded in eliminating its competition in Europe, especially Germany.”

Related:

The International Energy Agency says Western sanctions have had a “limited impact” on Russian oil production

The agency added that the European Union’s commitment to reduce member states’ gas consumption by 15 percent from August 2022 to March 2023 will continue to increase oil demand by about 300,000 barrels per day for the next six quarters.

Shipping oil from the US to Europe costs 12 times more than the start of 2022 as nations continue to shun Russian crude

The Aframax vessels are optimally-sized to dock at European docks, which often cannot fit supertankers, an analyst from E.A. Gibson Shipbrokers told Bloomberg, and the current sky-high rates should remain heightened in the months ahead so long as sanctions against Russia remain.

“The market consensus was too pessimistic about Russia’s capability to re-route volumes to other buyers,” IEA analysts said. “Russia’s exports adjusted towards other buyers without a serious disruption to its production.”