Declaration Berlin

Declaration Berlin (translated)

Posted by @nsanzo

“European leaders are scheduled to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and NATO chief Mark Rutte on Wednesday afternoon in Brussels to discuss peace plans and the possible deployment of peacekeeping forces in Ukraine,” Politico announced on Friday, confirming what was already known: NATO is leading the effort to coordinate what may happen in the coming months in the war in Ukraine, which on the ground will depend on European countries. “In addition to Rutte and Zelensky, invited participants include: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Polish President Andrzej Duda, European Council President António Costa, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen,” the outlet added, to show who the main actors are in preparing for the possibility of a significant reduction in the United States’ role in the day-to-day running of the war.

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Zelensky’s wear and tear

Zelensky’s wear and tear (original)

For more than two and a half years, war has been the raison d’être of the Ukrainian state. The budget presented by Kyiv this week allocates more than 50% of the budget to the defence sector – to which must be added the cost of veterans – something that has been repeated since 2022. Maintaining the front, avoiding its collapse and ensuring that there is still enough support to continue fighting until the objectives are achieved is the priority of the government team, which has set aside practically all other obligations of the state, which today depends entirely on foreign subsidies that make it possible to pay salaries and pensions. One of the aspects that has completely disappeared under the cover of the unity demanded by the war is precisely domestic politics. The Russian invasion gave Zelensky’s team the opportunity to create for the president the image of a war leader, the representation of the nation, a savior capable of achieving what he sets out to do, the only person capable of rescuing the country from certain ruin.

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Ukraine: Imposing the plan

After briefly presenting his Victory Plan at the seat of Ukraine’s national sovereignty, the Verkhovna Rada, Volodymyr Zelensky has continued his tour to try to win the support of the people and institutions that really matter – his foreign partners. In Brussels, the Ukrainian president sought to curry favour with one of his main suppliers, the current support of the Ukrainian state, the European Union, whose Parliament once again welcomed him as a hero. “The last time you were here,” wrote Roberta Metsola, “I promised you our unwavering support on your country’s path to EU membership. Today I am proud to welcome you to the House of European Democracy as the leader of a candidate country for EU membership.” “Ukraine is Europe,” she said, deliberately confusing the continent with the political bloc. However, with EU entry long understood as a decision that has been made and that it is simply a matter of time, Zelensky’s speech did not focus on the benefits of the Union or the enormous benefit that will be obtained by admitting Ukraine into the European family, but on the continuation of his campaign to formalize the Victory Plan as a possible way out of the war. Kiev is acting in the same way that in the last decade it has managed to institutionalize the nationalist discourse, previously only characteristic of a part of the country, as the only possible national discourse. Ukraine is working to achieve the same objective and to make its plan – in reality a wish list that its allies must help it to fulfill and not a roadmap to achieve them – appear as a path to a just peace.

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Ukraine: Victory Plan

Victory Plan (Google Translate)

“We hear the word negotiations from our partners, but the word justice is heard much less often,” Volodymyr Zelensky said yesterday in his speech to the Ukrainian Rada. “Ukraine is open to diplomacy, but honest diplomacy. That is why we have the Peace Formula. It is a guarantee of negotiating without forcing Ukraine to accept injustice. Ukrainians deserve a decent peace,” the Ukrainian president continued in his presentation of the Victory Plan to deputies and other authorities of the country’s political and security apparatus. Kiev’s intentions are clear: to achieve a position of strength in which Ukraine does not have to yield to Russian demands. Nothing indicates that there has been any change in the way of thinking of the Ukrainian leadership, which has always understood justice as something that only the part of the population under its control deserves, without those on the other side of the front and whose territories it aspires to recover having a say in the future of the country.

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The US should be very careful about what it promises to do for Ukraine

  • US shouldn’t support or extend a security guarantee — through NATO or bilaterally — to Ukraine.
  • Doing so would endanger US national security and increase the odds of a direct clash with Russia.
  • Daniel L. Davis is a senior fellow at Defense Priorities and a retired US Army lieutenant colonel.
The US should be very careful about what it promises to do for Ukraine

Related:

21 Miles of Obstacles

Why NATO Won’t Back Automatic Membership For Ukraine

It is understandable that Zelensky passionately desires to join NATO. But the alliance is composed of 31 current members and their individual and collective needs must be considered in equal amounts to the desires of the Ukrainian president. The harsh truth is that there is no viable path to a military victory for Ukraine, now or in the foreseeable future, regardless of how many planes, tanks, and missiles the West may contribute.