Tag: Scarborough Shoal

Observations on the pundits in the PH media

Tina Marie (Ms. Cat)
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Retired Supreme Court associate justice Antonio Carpio says the Philippine government should accept Vietnam and Malaysia’s invitation to take China to an arbitral court on their territorial disputes.

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US-funded Rappler:

[OPINION] Ayungin and why PH should respond as one team, one nation (archived):

This crisis should be turned into an opportunity.

We have postponed the replacement of the BRP Sierra Madre for years, for fear of escalating tension at Ayungin Shoal. Now is the time to either construct a concrete facility or deploy a self-propelled oil platform inside the shoal as a permanent station for our troops; which should be far superior in terms of habitability, self-defense, and supportability. If completed, some of the Navy’s missile boats can be redeployed to secure the shoal, instead of languishing in Mindanao and conducting anti-smuggling operations.” – Retired Rear Admiral Rommel Jude Ong.

One thing that I’ve noticed about these pundits being quoted in the PH media, is that all of them have ties to the Stratbase Group, which includes the Stratbase ADR Institute and BowerGroupAsia.  Both the Stratbase ADR Institute and BowerGroupAsia have connections to Ray Powell and the U.S. government. 

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South China Sea: Philippines’ anti-ship missile base puts Scarborough Shoal in cross hairs (more information)

Tina Marie (Ms. Cat)

What the article left out is; to shoot far, the Philippine military needs to see far. However, the Philippines don’t have any over-the-horizon (OTH) radar, military satellites, AWACS planes or other long-range ISR capabilities, to make use of the full range of the BrahMos missile. Without it the missile is limited to the range of its available ISR assets, which are measured in just dozens of kilometers.

However, if a BrahMos missile is ever launched against a long-range Chinese target, it will be easy to guess who would have supplied the essential Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) information and target identification to the Philippine military.

StarBoySAR

South China Sea: Philippines’ anti-ship missile base puts Scarborough Shoal in cross hairs

Even if the Philippines lacks the advanced communications, intelligence, and targeting systems needed to maximise the BrahMos’ capabilities, it could still leverage US support in these areas, Koh said, citing the sinking of Russia’s Moskva warship by Ukraine in 2022, which he said was achieved thanks to “targeting support provided by Kyiv’s allies, chiefly the Americans”.

The flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, the Moskva became the largest warship lost in combat since the second world war when it was hit by two Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles in April 2022. US officials later told the media that the Pentagon had provided intelligence that led to the ship’s sinking.

For the Philippines, the BrahMos missiles are “significant game changers” [🙄], according to security strategist Chester Cabalza, president of the International Development and Security Cooperation think tank in Manila.

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However, Don McLain Gill, an international-studies lecturer at De La Salle University in the Philippines, questioned whether the BrahMos purchase alone would deliver robust deterrence against China.

“It will be crucial for the BrahMos to be supplemented by efficient intelligence, surveillance, target-acquisition and reconnaissance, which is critical to track targets and ensure they can be used by command,” he said, warning Manila must invest further to maximise the missiles’ deterrent value.

Previously:

Philippines Builds First BrahMos Anti-Ship Missile Base Facing South China Sea

PH: American analyst cautions against calling Ayungin incident an accident

Tina Marie (Ms. Cat)
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MANILA — China’s hostile actions near Ayungin or Second Thomas Shoal on June 17 were “clearly not an accident and misunderstanding,” an American maritime security expert on Sunday said as he urged the Philippine government to be careful in its efforts to de-escalate the situation in the West Philippine Sea.

Former United States Air Force officer Ray Powell said China may see the de-escalation as an opportunity to reposition in its favor, just as it did after the 2012 standoff when it seized Scarborough Shoal, locally called Panatag Shoal and Bajo de Masinloc.

American analyst cautions against calling Ayungin incident an accident

Source

Powell’s not giving up, until he gets his war!

Related:

This Was No “Accident”

Psychologically traumatized victims trapped in abusive relationships will often blame themselves for their abusers’ violence. This was hauntingly expressed in the 1987 Suzanne Vega hit single, “Luka“–sung in the voice of one such domestic violence victim:

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I have advocated for Manila to consider requesting formal consultations with the U.S. under Article III of the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty: The Parties, through their Foreign Ministers or their deputies, will consult together from time to time regarding the implementation of this Treaty and whenever in the opinion of either of them the territorial integrity, political independence or security of either of the Parties is threatened by external armed attack in the Pacific.

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It also pulls the rug out from under President Marcos’ eloquent Shangri-La speech, which he gave before a global audience just three weeks ago in Singapore: “In our solid legal footing and through our clear moral ascendancy, we find strength to do whatever it takes to protect our sovereign home to the last square inch, to the last square millimeter … As President, I have sworn this solemn commitment from the very first day that I took office. I do not intend to yield. Filipinos do not yield.”

Previously: Philippines secretly reinforced Sierra Madre and China’s latest actions not an armed attack

See more about the Scarborough Shoal standoff, here: Debunking: Biden to warn Beijing against meddling in South China Sea 🤦🏼‍♀️

See more about Ray Powell, here: Updated 06-12-2024: Philippines Game Changer – Project Myoushu Analysis

Philippine Sailor Severely Injured, Vessels Damaged as Chinese Block South China Sea Mission + Notes

Tina Marie (Ms. Cat)
Source

It was the Philippines that rammed the CCG!* US-funded Rappler** doesn’t mention the other soldiers who were injured.

Philippine Sailor Severely Injured, Vessels Damaged as Chinese Block South China Sea Mission

Meanwhile, a Philippine government release from the National Task Force on the West Philippine Sea stated that ships from the People’s Liberation Army Navy, China Coast Guard and Chinese Maritime Militia performed “dangerous maneuvers.” However, there is no mention of injury to Philippine personnel in the release. The statement also claimed that Chinese forces rammed and towed Philippine vessels, although it’s unclear to what extent the latter occurred during the incident. This is the first reported instance of China towing – defined as pulling, pushing or hauling – Philippine vessels in their South China Sea disputes.

Related:

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Manila’s persistent claimjumping efforts display the extent of its avariciousness

Tina Marie (Ms. Cat)

Manila’s persistent claimjumping efforts display the extent of its avariciousness

The latest incident in the waters adjacent to China’s Ren’ai Reef [AKA Second Thomas Shoal], in which there was slight collision when an illegally intruding Philippine supply ship dangerously approached a China Coast Guard vessel, is the latest in a series of risky encounters between Chinese law enforcement vessels and Philippine vessels near Ren’ai Reef in recent months due to the Philippines’ brazen land-grabbing antics.

Such incidents have occurred with increasing frequency as the Philippines has stepped up its efforts to ship construction materials to an aging warship it deliberately ran aground on the reef so it can make it a permanent facility, thus driving in its stake to claim the reef as its territory.

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With new procedures coming into effect on June 15, the China Coast Guard will be equipped with more forceful legal measures to enforce maritime law and advance China’s maritime legal governance in its territorial waters, including detaining foreign ships that have illegally entered China’s waters.

Related:

China and Philippines Quarrel over South China Sea Collision

U.S. Ambassador to the Philippines MaryKay Carlson condemned China’s “aggressive, dangerous” maneuvers in a post on X, saying the collision had “caused bodily injury.”

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In response, the Philippine coastguard said on Monday it has ordered the deployment of two vessels to patrol and ensure the safety of Filipino fishermen at Scarborough Shoal – a second flashpoint about 640 km (345 nautical miles) away from Second Thomas Shoal.

Separately, the U.S. Pacific Fleet said in a statement it had concluded a two-day joint maritime exercise with the militaries of Canada, Japan, and the Philippines’ within Manila’s EEZ in the South China Sea.

Experts warn of Philippines scheming for ‘new arbitration’ on South China Sea + More

Tina Marie (Ms. Cat)

While reiterating that the arbitral tribunal in the South China Sea arbitration exceeded its jurisdiction and made an illegitimate ruling, Chinese experts warned on Monday that the Philippines is scheming for “new arbitration” on the issue, which would undermine regional peace and stability.

Experts warn of Philippines scheming for ‘new arbitration’ on South China Sea

Related:

Philippines should use legal, moral leverage in West Philippine Sea – expert

Ray Powell, director of the SeaLight Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation at Stanford University, said China is using an “asymmetrical” strategy through military might in asserting its claims in the region.

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He also expressed support for the Philippine government’s plan to file another case against China, this time over the environmental destruction that China has caused in the West Philippine Sea.

PH to complete environmental case vs. China in ‘few weeks’- DOJ

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin’s Regular Press Conference on May 20, 2024

The Office of Naval Research funded Stanford’s GKC

I’m no expert, but I had a feeling that they would back in April, at least:

Philippine Coast Guard clarifies ‘assertive transparency’ tact

Vietnamese Poachers using Cyanide and Dynamite Fishing in the Philippines’ EEZ