South China Sea: Philippines’ anti-ship missile base puts Scarborough Shoal in cross hairs (more information)

What the article left out is; to shoot far, the Philippine military needs to see far. However, the Philippines don’t have any over-the-horizon (OTH) radar, military satellites, AWACS planes or other long-range ISR capabilities, to make use of the full range of the BrahMos missile. Without it the missile is limited to the range of its available ISR assets, which are measured in just dozens of kilometers.

However, if a BrahMos missile is ever launched against a long-range Chinese target, it will be easy to guess who would have supplied the essential Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) information and target identification to the Philippine military.

StarBoySAR

South China Sea: Philippines’ anti-ship missile base puts Scarborough Shoal in cross hairs

Even if the Philippines lacks the advanced communications, intelligence, and targeting systems needed to maximise the BrahMos’ capabilities, it could still leverage US support in these areas, Koh said, citing the sinking of Russia’s Moskva warship by Ukraine in 2022, which he said was achieved thanks to “targeting support provided by Kyiv’s allies, chiefly the Americans”.

The flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, the Moskva became the largest warship lost in combat since the second world war when it was hit by two Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles in April 2022. US officials later told the media that the Pentagon had provided intelligence that led to the ship’s sinking.

For the Philippines, the BrahMos missiles are “significant game changers” [🙄], according to security strategist Chester Cabalza, president of the International Development and Security Cooperation think tank in Manila.

However, Don McLain Gill, an international-studies lecturer at De La Salle University in the Philippines, questioned whether the BrahMos purchase alone would deliver robust deterrence against China.

“It will be crucial for the BrahMos to be supplemented by efficient intelligence, surveillance, target-acquisition and reconnaissance, which is critical to track targets and ensure they can be used by command,” he said, warning Manila must invest further to maximise the missiles’ deterrent value.

Previously:

Philippines Builds First BrahMos Anti-Ship Missile Base Facing South China Sea

SECNAV Del Toro Meets with Wisconsin Governor, Michigan Cabinet, and Leadership of Fincantieri Marinette Marine

April 17, 2024

Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro and senior members of his staff met with Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers, members of Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s cabinet, and the leadership of Fincantieri Marinette Marine to coalesce federal, state, and local initiatives to ensure timely completion and delivery of the Constellation-class frigate.

SECNAV Del Toro Meets with Wisconsin Governor, Michigan Cabinet, and Leadership of Fincantieri Marinette Marine

Previously:

Constellation Frigate Delivery Delayed 3 Years, Says Navy

‘Desperate’ US Seeks Japan’s & South Korea’s Help To Restart Its Defunct Shipyards; Keep Pace With China

Constellation Frigate Delivery Delayed 3 Years, Says Navy

Full video

THE PENTAGON – The lead ship in a new class of guided-missile frigates for the U.S. Navy may be up to three years late, USNI News has learned.
Constellation (FFG-62), under construction at Fincantieri Marinette Marine in Wisconsin, may not deliver to the fleet until 2029, three years later than the original 2026 delivery goal, according to a service shipbuilding review.

Constellation Frigate Delivery Delayed 3 Years, Says Navy

‘Desperate’ US Seeks Japan’s & South Korea’s Help To Restart Its Defunct Shipyards; Keep Pace With China

Desperate’ US Seeks Japan’s & South Korea’s Help To Restart Its Defunct Shipyards; Keep Pace With China

The US approach focuses on tapping Asian funding, engineering know-how, and shipbuilding experience to expand its shipbuilding capacity, Nikkeia Asia reported.

Emanuel said, “There’s a closed plant in Philadelphia. There’s a closed Navy shipyard in Long Beach. And there are a couple of others…We wanted to see if Mitsubishi and other Japanese companies would be interested in potentially investing and reopening one of those shipyards and being part of building Navy, commercial, and Coast Guard ships.”

Emanuel had also hinted in January this year that for US Navy warships to remain in Asian waters and be prepared for any future confrontation, the United States and Japan are attempting to reach an agreement enabling Japanese shipyards to do routine maintenance and overhauls.

Over the past 40 years, China has developed a remarkable commercial shipbuilding industry, cautioned Del Toro at an event. “We’ve lost that capability from about the 1980s when we left it open to market forces.”

The US has seen a very significant dip in its shipbuilding capacity. Nine of the 13 public naval shipyards the United States formerly had are closed. Several closed shipyards are now national parks, naval air stations, or container terminals. However, a few could be brought back for ship repair or construction.

The urgency to resuscitate these redundant shipyards stems from the threat posed by China’s massive shipbuilding industry, producing many naval vessels that could be used to project dominance in far seas and deployed against the US and its Indo-Pacific allies in the event of a conflict.

According to the latest Pentagon’s annual report to Congress on Chinese military and security developments, the Chinese Navy possesses an estimated 350 vessels, while the US Navy battle force has 293 warships.

The yawning gap of 60 hulls between the two navies is expected to grow every five years until 2035, when China will have an estimated 475 naval ships compared to 305-317 US warships. Notably, China has inducted as many as 150 warships in the last ten years.

H/T: Johnsonwkchoi

Related:

U.S. seeks to revive idled shipyards with help of Japan, South Korea – Nikkei Asia

But while quick repairs on damages suffered through deployment are allowed, like the Big Horn at Mitsubishi, U.S. law prohibits U.S.-based ships to undergo full-scale overhaul, repair or maintenance at a shipyard outside the U.S. or Guam. Changing such a law — put in place to protect U.S. jobs — may face headwinds, especially in an election year.

Both tours were led by the companies’ respective CEOs. The shipbuilders expressed “strong interest” in establishing U.S. subsidiaries and investing in shipyards in the U.S., the Navy said in a press release.

U.S. Navy ships are currently built by seven private shipbuilders, including two non-American players: Italy’s Fincantieri Marinette Marine in Wisconsin and Australia’s Austal USA in Alabama. The involvement of two international shipbuilders serves as a precedent as the Asian players contemplate entry.

Maintenance of the most sensitive nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and submarines are conducted exclusively at four public naval shipyards — in Virginia, Maine, Washington and Hawaii.

Emanuel said that when he started working for former President Bill Clinton in the early 1990s, there were 10 to 11 shipyards that built naval ships. “We’re down to seven and our work is growing. You’re not going to get the same volume out of seven that you got out of 11. You need to get back to 11 or 10.”

Is the Philippines becoming a US ‘proxy’ against Beijing in the South China Sea?

Is the Philippines becoming a US ‘proxy’ against Beijing in the South China Sea?

‘The ants that get trampled on’

Not everyone agrees with drawing closer to the US, however, and they warn about the Philippines turning into a “proxy” for American interests. The president’s own sister Imee, a senator, told ANC Digital earlier this month that “China will always be our neighbour, we have no fight with them, let’s not get dragged into a fight that’s not our own.”

Anna Rosario Malindog-Uy, director of the pro-China Asian Century Philippines Strategic Studies Institute, wrote in the Manila Times on February 10 that “agreements such as the EDCA, the VFA and the Mutual Defence Treaty have not only cemented the US military presence and influence in the Philippines but also, most importantly, exemplified the Philippines’ dependence on the US in the military and defence sector.”

Teresita Ang See, former president of the Philippine Association for Chinese Studies and currently part of its advisory council, told This Week in Asia: “Filipinos in general condemn China’s action. But many also understand that China’s assertiveness is in response to US, Japanese and Australian provocations and increasing military presence in the Philippines.”

She warned that “we are fighting a proxy war between the US and China and in the end we will be the ants that get trampled upon”.

H/T: Johnsonwkchoi

Related:

Responding to the Catholic Bishops

Philippines counts the cost of tough South China Sea stance against Beijing

Philippines counts the cost of tough South China Sea stance against Beijing

Philippines counts the cost of tough South China Sea stance against Beijing

The Philippines has become a laboratory in responding to Beijing on the South China Sea row, taking the most risk but showing inconsistency and underwhelming results thus far. Its predicament explains why other Southeast Asian claimant states remain unlikely to follow its lead. The tepid reaction to Manila’s pitch for an Asean claimants-only Code of Conduct is indicative.

As had happened in the past, lost economic opportunities and further erosion of Manila’s position in the flashpoint, relative to other disputants, may lead to a possible policy reversal in handling the maritime tiff come the 2028 presidential election.

Last year, the Philippines began to expose China’s illicit actions in the disputed waters. It inserted reporters in routine patrols and resupply sorties to document interference by the Chinese coastguard and maritime militia ships. The idea is to rally local and international support and impose reputational costs on Beijing. [Project Myoushu AKA Transparency Initiative]

This approach made strides in rousing public backing for Manila’s defence build-up, a stronger alliance with the United States, and a tougher stance against China. However, it also contributed to polarising domestic politics, affecting people-to-people ties and diminishing Chinese economic interest in the Philippines. Meanwhile, Beijing remains unmoved, weathering reputational costs and continuing to wield a capacity for escalation in the South China Sea.

During Xi’s visit to Hanoi last December, both sides vowed to upgrade the Kunming-Haiphong rail line. In contrast, Chinese funding for three rail projects discussed during the previous Duterte government is already dead in the water. China is unlikely to become a strong partner for President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr’s Build Better More infrastructure programme.

Losses in the tourism sector have also become evident. In 2019, before the pandemic, China was the Philippines’ fastest-growing tourist market, with more than 1.7 million arrivals, or a 21.1 per cent market share, just behind South Korea. Last year, as countries in Asia raced to benefit from the return of Chinese tourists, the Philippines only welcomed over 260,000 tourists from China, with the market share shrinking to just 4.84 per cent.

Ironically, for all the talk about Duterte’s China policy as appeasement, it was under his watch that the Philippines made the biggest upgrade in infrastructure in the Spratlys since the 1970s. He also invested in modernising the country’s military, procuring modern frigates from South Korea, multirole response vessels from Japan and cruise missiles from India. All these happened while relations with China remained stable.

Another irony is that while Manila celebrates every resupply mission to the Second Thomas Shoal that successfully eluded the Chinese blockade, Vietnam is busy doing substantial reclamation on its Spratly outposts and gearing for a potential second airfield, with reportedly little interference from Beijing. [Bueller?]

These should offer plenty of insights as the strategy of the Philippines over the maritime squabble evolves.

Philippines Gunning For Fast And Massive Military Build-Up + More

Full video.

MANILA –“We are not satisfied with minimum [deterrence capability alone]…movement is life, stagnation is death,” Colonel Micheal Logico, a top strategist at the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), recently told this reporter when asked about the country’s evolving defense strategy.“We [need] to elevate ourselves into a world-class armed forces,” he added.

Philippines Gunning For Fast And Massive Military Build-Up

Related:

De Facto American Military Forward Operating Base?

Hungry Pinoys highest so far under Marcos government

Philippines Conducts Joint Exercises With U.S. In S. China Sea

Batanes eyed for Balikatan military drills

Report: US Military Advisors Deployed to Taiwan-Controlled Islands on China’s Coast

US Missiles Made For, Aimed at China

The United States is working toward fielding a number of new weapon systems including the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), the “Typhon” Mid-Range Capability missile launcher, and the “Dark Eagle” Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon, all designed from the ground up almost entirely to fight China in a future war the US envisions it can wage to prevent the East Asian nation from surpassing it militarily and economically both within the Indo-Pacific region, and globally.

US Missiles Made For, Aimed at China (archived)