But over centuries and millennia, the collective “recipes for living” (Clifford Geertz’ famous definition of culture) that emerges from particular conditions and trajectories does become a force which also shapes history.
China has quietly won the trade war and is now reshaping global leadership—not through force, but through strategy, stability, and vision. It’s time for the West to learn, adapt, and embrace a shared future led by a preponderant China.
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” —Vladimir Lenin
The US dollar is essential to US global power projection. But in 2022, the dollar share of reserve currencies slid 10 times faster than the average in the past two decades.
We cannot even begin to imagine the uninterrupted cascading effects of the geopolitical earthquake of 2023 that shook the world: Putin and Xi, in Moscow, effectively signalling the beginning of the end of the Pax Americana.
Technology is ground zero in the conflict between the United States and China. For the American hegemon, it is about the leading edge of geostrategic power and the means for sustained prosperity. For China, it holds the key to the indigenous innovation required of a rising power. The tech war now underway between the two superpowers could well be the defining struggle of the twenty-first century.
In the last 50 days, the executive and legislative branches in Washington have done more than in the last 50 years to convince China that America’s imperial policy is simply relentless, and must be met with force.
The only rationale that could explain why the US would make such a gambit, is if they expected a strong destabilizing effect on China. It is perceivable that they believe their own propaganda of alleged “instability” in China. There recently have been loud complaints by some Chinese about local events, as is virtually always the case, and as expected in a country the size of China. But to imagine Chinese society as a whole was “unstable” grossly misjudges the relevance and scale of such local events, as China is extremely stable, both socially as well as in the macroeconomy, with low inflation, no stagnation, and a stable currency. Looking at the scale and violence of farmer protests in Holland, or trucker protests in Canada, it would make much more sense to worry about the stability of Western democracies than of China.
Apart from the stability, even more important is the fact, that there was no humiliation of China’s government, since the event in the end helps speed up the reunification of Taiwan with the mainland, as foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying pointed out on August 3. Just as Pelosi’s statements of a “beautiful sight” regarding the violent riots of Hong Kong in 2019 helped convince the people of Hong Kong that those riots were intended to hurt their city for the interests of a foreign nation, leading to more popular support for stronger legislation against such riots, her visit to Taiwan this time gave China an opportunity to improve its strategic disposition in the region.
One of the most well-known antique text in China and worldwide is The Art of War by Sun Zi. In one passage Sun Zi explains that leaders should never enter a war rashly or start a fight based on emotion. Emotions can change from anger to joy, but dead people can never return to life. Chinese have far too much wisdom to let the US dictate their agenda, and trick them into an unnecessary war. There isn’t a Chinese who wouldn’t understand this logic. Therefore, the measured and strategic response of China to a short-sighted and emotion-focused provocation by Pelosi is getting overwhelming support in the Chinese public.
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