Part 3a: RAND and SeaLight – Taiwan Relations Act

The United States has also recently transitioned from an ambiguous approach [strategic ambiguity] to deterring a Chinese invasion on Taiwan to one that more clearly states that the United States will defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion (referred to as strategic clarity).

P93: Understanding and Countering China’s Maritime Gray Zone Operations | RAND

This is not true! The Biden administration “walked back” his statements each time!

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53% of Taiwanese, 36% of Americans think US would send troops if China invades

53% of Taiwanese, 36% of Americans think US would send troops if China invades

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A Taiwan-US poll found that Taiwanese and Americans differ on whether Washington would send troops if Beijing launches an invasion, but both support maintaining the status quo. 

On Monday (Dec. 2), the Ministry of National Defense’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs released the results of a joint survey that examined how Taiwanese and Americans view the Taiwan Strait situation and bilateral security cooperation.

Related:

Institute for National Defense and Security Research

While it receives almost all of its funding from government sources INDSR is institutionally independent, nonpartisan, and nonprofit.

Chicago Council on Global Affairs 2021 Financial Donors

Chicago Council on Global Affairs (Fidelity Investments, Charles Schwab Corporation, Rockefeller Foundation)

Chicago Council on Global Affairs grants from MacArthur Foundation

Corporate Partners | Chicago Council on Global Affairs

Front Organizations (Rockefeller)

China says US ‘playing with fire’ by giving Taiwan more military aid

China says US ‘playing with fire’ by giving Taiwan more military aid

Related:

Why Should We Care About America’s Indo-Pacific Allies?, May 10, 2024:

We’re not obligated to defend Taiwan. What we are obligated to do is governed by the law and the law is the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act.

But defending Taiwan is not one of those things, but it means that we sell them equipment that they need to defend themselves and the like. And it makes it clear intent that we want a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan PRC issue, a peaceful resolution across the Taiwan Strait. And that we are opposed to a forceful reunification against the Taiwanese people’s will.

Is the United States going to defend Taiwan? If the answer to that question is yes, they’re going to lose hundreds of thousands of troops in that fight and they ought to know that. And then they can then make the calculus whether it’s worth it or not.

— Admiral Harry B. Harris, Jr., former commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command

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India is losing Bangladesh to China and Pakistan, and it could get worse

India is losing Bangladesh to China and Pakistan, and it could get worse

Source: St. Martin’s Island: A new flashpoint in the Bay of Bengal?Observer Research Foundation

by Derek J GrossmanRAND

Beijing has further sought to develop numerous Bangladeshi ports, including Chittagong, Mongla, and Sonadia ports, to achieve a maritime presence in the Bay of Bengal. Enhanced access to any or all of these ports could substantially add to Beijing’s “string of pearls” strategy to hem in India in the Indian Ocean.

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Marcos Says Philippines Won’t Send Warships After China Clashes

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said his nation won’t deploy Navy warships to the South China Sea in response to recent clashes with Beijing in disputed waters.

Marcos Says Philippines Won’t Send Warships After China Clashes

Previously:

Philippines to match China’s gray zone tactics in South China Sea

What’s Really Going On In the South China Sea Between the Philippines and China