What’s Really Going On In the South China Sea Between the Philippines and China

What’s Really Going On In the South China Sea Between the Philippines and China

by Tina Antonis

Maritime clashes between the Philippines and China had been mostly over the Philippines’ military outpost, BRP (BRP—Barko ng Republika ng Pilipinas, which translates to “Ship of the Republic of the Philippines”—the ship prefix for the Philippines) Sierra Madre, in the Spratly Islands, which is disputed by Brunei, China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan (a province of China, as recognized by the United Nations’ Resolution No. 2758), and Vietnam. The BRP Sierra Madre was intentionally run aground on a reef near the Second Thomas Shoal in the disputed Spratly Islands, in 1997, so that the Philippines could stake their territorial claim.

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(Primer) A Decade of EDCA: US military bases and its expanding war games in the Philippines

The outright re-establishment of US military bases in the country and its relentless and escalating war games on land, sea, and air are flagrant manifestations of US imperialist domination of the Philippines. This further tightens the grip of US imperialism on the Philippine neocolonial state, especially on the puppet Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP).

(Primer) A Decade of EDCA: US military bases and its expanding war games in the Philippines

US Navy Aircraft Transits Taiwan Strait, China Responds (+the U.S. is not obligated to defend Taiwan)

US Navy Aircraft Transits Taiwan Strait, China Responds

The U.S. Navy’s 7th fleet said a P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft transited the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday.

Around once a month, U.S. military ships or aircraft pass through or above the waterway that separates democratically governed Taiwan from China – missions that always anger Beijing. China claims sovereignty over the island of Taiwan and says it has jurisdiction over the strait. Taiwan and the United States dispute that, saying the strait is an international waterway.

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South China Sea: US troop aid may reassure Philippines but will prod China, analysts say

Has anyone realized that by disclosing the existence of “US Task Force Ayungin,” Biden admin implicitly recognized Philippines’ sovereignty over a disputed SCS feature?

Washington has never taken a position on SCS territories(but it has in ECS). This is a clear signal to China.*

Derek J. Grossman, RAND

South China Sea: US troop aid may reassure Philippines but will prod China, analysts say (archived)

The Philippines has said the US task force only offered support – in the form of intelligence and surveillance – and did not directly take part in its resupply missions to BRP Sierra Madre, the retired warship, but analysts suggested that China’s leadership could see it in a different light.

Zheng said the revelation about the American task force meant the US was likely to be more engaged in the drawn-out maritime conflicts in the region, even suggesting that Washington would “be the first to take part in the command and planning of Philippine maritime activities”.

Ding Duo, deputy director of the Centre for Oceans Law and Policy at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies in Hainan, said the presence of a special task force showed that Washington and Manila had long cooperated on resupply operations to Second Thomas Shoal.

“Such support emboldens the Philippines and is not conducive to China and the Philippines managing their differences,” Ding said. “The US involvement has also squeezed the political space for internal coordination and decision-making within the Philippines.”

He said it was also possible that American troops could be on Philippine ships and involved in front-line action “using a covert or concealed identity to participate in Philippine maritime operations” in future.

He said the US could “only intervene [in South China Sea disputes] in a covert manner and so it took the form of a task force”.

Related:

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For Taiwan, Trump’s ‘protection’ money may mean new and early big ticket arms deals

For Taiwan, Trump’s ‘protection’ money may mean new and early big ticket arms deals

“Watch for Taiwan on the defence side to try and start engaging them on a big arms package – to do something significant, very large,” Rupert Hammond-Chambers, president of the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council which helps broker defence exchanges between Washington and Taipei, told Reuters, adding it could come in the first quarter of next year.

“But think of it as a down payment, an attention getter,” he said. “They’ll stack up several big platforms and big buys of munitions.”

The U.S. is already Taiwan’s most important arms supplier, although Taiwan has complained of an order backlog worth some $20 billion. A new order, almost $2 billion of missile systems, was announced last month.

Related:

Profile at BowerGroupAsia: Rupert Hammond-Chambers

Largest U.S. Drone Manufacturer Says It Will Need To Ration Batteries For Customers After Sanctions By China

Largest U.S. Drone Manufacturer Says It Will Need To Ration Batteries For Customers After Sanctions By China

Bry said China sanctioned his company for selling drones to Taiwan—noting the Taiwanese National Fire Agency is its only customer in the country—but said Skydio was “proud to support critical infrastructure operators, first responders, and allied militaries.”

The blog post sharply attacked the Chinese government, saying the sanctions show that the Chinese government “will use supply chains as a weapon to advance their interests over ours.”

Bry also accused the Chinese government of attempting to “eliminate the leading American drone company” and increase the “world’s dependence on Chinese drone suppliers.”

According to the Financial Times, Skydio’s list of customers includes the Ukrainian military, and the company has sent over 1,000 of its drones to Ukraine to aid with gathering intelligence in its ongoing war with Russia and record instances of war crimes by the Russian military. Skydio’s X10 drone—which is affected by the battery rationing—is reportedly hard to jam, and Ukraine has sought to acquire thousands of them.

Related:

[04-10-2024] How American Drones Failed to Turn the Tide in Ukraine

The Silicon Valley company Skydio sent hundreds of its best drones to Ukraine to help fight the Russians. Things didn’t go well. 

Skydio’s drones flew off course and were lost, victims of Russia’s electronic warfare. The company has since gone back to the drawing board to build a new fleet.

The U.S. Threatens a Drone War in the Taiwan Strait— Seriously?

The U.S. has long been preparing for a drone war with China in the Taiwan Strait, should conflict arise. The head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command even declared that the U.S. would turn the strait into an ‘unmanned hellscape.’ Yet, China’s new generation of military equipment has already surpassed the U.S. in both cost and quantity.

The U.S. Threatens a Drone War in the Taiwan Strait— Seriously?

Previously:

Countering China with Chinese UAVs backfires, US military faces drone shortage

US Wants To Create ‘Hellscape’ of Drones If China Attacks Taiwan