Overextending America: Israel’s Interceptor Shortfall + My Commentary

This isn’t just about missile inventories. It’s about a superpower stretching its supply chains thin while picking fights on multiple fronts. As analyst Brian Berletic warned: “The US is unprepared for the scale of war it is provoking around the globe” (RAND might call it “Overextending America”—assuming they ever write the sequel). The numbers may look technical, but the pattern is strategic exhaustion. Below is the report—and my commentary on why shortfalls in interceptors are just a symptom of something far broader.

Israel Is Running Low on Air Defense Interceptors

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First Components of U.S. THAAD Missile Defense System Arrive in Israel, Secret Site 512 Expected to Play Key Role

First Components of U.S. THAAD Missile Defense System Arrive in Israel, Secret Site 512 Expected to Play Key Role

The THAAD system is designed to intercept and destroy short-, medium-, and intermediate-range ballistic missiles during their final phase of flight. Instead of using explosive warheads, THAAD relies on kinetic energy to neutralize incoming missiles by colliding with them at high speeds. The system’s radar and interceptors allow it to detect and destroy threats both inside and outside the Earth’s atmosphere. Each THAAD battery typically includes six truck-mounted launchers, 48 interceptors, a radar system, and a command-and-control unit. A crew of approximately 95 U.S. soldiers operates the system.

This deployment follows Iran’s missile attack on Israel on Oct. 1, 2024, during which Iran launched more than 180 ballistic missiles, including the Fattah-1 hypersonic missile. Unveiled by Iran in 2023, the Fattah-1 can reportedly travel at hypersonic speeds and change trajectory mid-flight. While the U.S. has not yet encountered the Fattah-1 in combat, the THAAD deployment offers a chance to assess whether the system can counter this new Iranian missile.

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Israel races to supply anti-missile shield

Israel races to supply anti-missile shield

“Israel’s munitions issue is serious,” said Dana Stroul, a former senior US defence official with responsibility for the Middle East.

“If Iran responds to an Israel attack [with a massive air strike campaign], and Hizbollah joins in too, Israel air defences will be stretched,” she said, adding that US stockpiles were not limitless. “The US can’t continue supplying Ukraine and Israel at the same pace. We are reaching a tipping point.”

Boaz Levy, chief executive of Israel Aerospace Industries, a state-owned company which makes the Arrow interceptors used to shoot down ballistic missiles, said he was running triple shifts to keep production lines running.

Some of our lines are working 24 hours, seven days a week. Our goal is to meet all our obligations,” Levy said, adding that the time required to produce interceptor missiles was “not a matter of days”. While Israel does not disclose the size of its stockpiles, he added: “It is no secret that we need to replenish stocks.

The Israeli military claimed in April that, with the help of the US and other allies, it achieved a 99 per cent interception rate against an Iranian salvo of 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles.

But Israel had less success fending off a second Iranian barrage of over 180 ballistic missiles fired on October 1. Almost three dozen missiles hit Israel’s Nevatim air base, according to open source intelligence analysts, while one missile exploded 700 metres away from the headquarters of the Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence agency.

We are not seeing Hizbollah’s full capability yet. It has only been firing at around a tenth of its estimated prewar launching capacity, a few hundred rockets a day instead of as many as 2,000,” said Assaf Orion, a former Israeli brigadier general and head of strategy at the Israel Defense Forces.

“Some of that gap is a choice by Hizbollah not to go full out, and some of it is due to degradation by the IDF. . . But Hizbollah has enough left to mount a strong operation,” Orion added. “Haifa and northern Israel are still on the receiving end of rocket and drone attacks almost every day.”

“During the October 1 attack, there was a sense the IDF reserved some Arrow interceptors in case Iran fired its next salvo at Tel Aviv,” said Ehud Eilam, a former researcher at Israel’s Ministry of Defence. “It’s only a matter of time before Israel starts to run out of interceptors and has to prioritise how they are deployed.

Dana Stroul wrote the article that I previously posted back on September 28th.

Previously:

Israel and Hezbollah Are Escalating Toward Catastrophe (it’s not looking good for the IOF)

U.S. to Deploy Missile Defense System and About 100 Troops to Israel + More Updates

US-Israel Inch Toward Wider, More Dangerous War

by Brian Berletic

Beginning in October 2023 a renewed cycle of violence began destabilizing the Middle East. Hamas’ October 7, 2023 military operation into Israeli-held territory served as a pretext for Israel, not to dismantle Hamas itself, but to conduct an indiscriminate punitive military operation against all of Gaza.

US-Israel Inch Toward Wider, More Dangerous War (archived)

Related:

U.S. to Deploy Missile Defense System and About 100 Troops to Israel + More Updates

Israel—‘Hamas’ War

U.S. to Deploy Missile Defense System and About 100 Troops to Israel + More Updates

The Pentagon announced it would send the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense battery and its crew as Israel considered retaliatory attacks against Iran.

The United States sent a THAAD battery along with other air defense systems to the region weeks after the Hamas-led attacks on Oct. 7, 2023. It was not immediately clear how quickly the missile defense system and troops would arrive in Israel.

U.S. to Deploy Missile Defense System and About 100 Troops to Israel

Related:

How The US Navy, Coast Guard & USAF Work Together In A Theater Like Israel

The USAF provides ongoing ISR [Intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance] ops to help track rocket launches supporting missile defense. The Air Force also monitors militant activity in Gaza to assist with precision targeting to minimize collateral risk. 

Another strategic role of the US Navy and Coast Guard is protecting Israel’s offshore energy platforms.

During conflicts, USAF aircraft often provide aerial refueling, logistical support, or electronic warfare capabilities in support of other US forces and any allied forces that may operating in the theater. Air Force bases are also frequently home to US pre-positioned military supplies or equipment, which other branches can quickly access if needed. USAF bases also provide airfield facilities used by all branches and allied forces. The hospitals on USAF bases are frequently the closest and best place for casualties or evacuees to be taken. This rapid deployment capability ensures that the US can provide timely support during a conflict.

Stock depletion, declining supply prompt ‘Israel’ to restrict arms use

The US is unprepared for the scale of war it is provoking around the globe

The US is unprepared for the scale of war it is provoking around the globe

The US is unprepared for the scale of war it is provoking around the globe

Saturday, 12 October 2024 — New Atlas

▪️Like many other US missile systems, production of THAAD missiles is low. Produced from 2008 to present, Lockheed Martin has produced 800 missiles, approximately 50 a year.

▪️It is likely not enough launchers exist to even launch the quantity of missiles required to defend against the type of missile barrage Iran launched in early October which easily overwhelmed Israel’s existing anti-ballistic missile systems.

▪️But even if they did, the 180 missiles Iran reportedly launched, requiring up to 2 interceptors each, would have exhausted nearly half of all THAAD missiles ever produced.

▪️The US is unprepared for the scale of war it is provoking around the globe.

This in in response to the following:

🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 US-operated THAAD anti-ballistic missile system reportedly to deploy to Israel…

▪️Israel’s response to Iranian missile strike may be on hold as US-Israel prepare for wider war Washington has long planned to provoke;

▪️US THAAD systems would be used in countering Iran’s missile capabilities as demonstrated in the early October missile strike;

▪️It is unlikely THAAD, other Western anti-missile systems will be capable of effectively stopping larger Iranian missile barrages;

▪️The risk of American troops dying “protecting” Israel will serve as a convincing pretext for the US to join a war it is using Israel to provoke;

▪️Continued provocations in the Middle East coupled with the US proxy war in Ukraine risks depleting essential military capabilities, especially anti-missile systems the US would need for the war it seeks to provoke with China;

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Sources:

US troops to reportedly operate THAAD anti-ballistic missile system in Israel

Lockheed Martin Delivers 800th THAAD Interceptor