Inflation and interest rates: the US experience

Once again the US Federal Reserve is in a quandary. Does it cut its policy interest rate soon in order to relieve pressure on debt servicing costs for consumers and businesses and perhaps avoid a stagflationary economy (ie low or no growth alongside higher inflation); or does it hold its current interest rate for borrowing in order to make sure inflation falls towards its target of 2% a year?

Inflation and interest rates: the US experience

US economy expanding?

The first estimate of third quarter real GDP growth in the US was released yesterday. It showed the US economy expanded by an annualised rate of 4.9%. The Financial Times called this a “blistering pace that, not for the first time, defied gloomier predictions from economists.” US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen commented that “It’s a good, strong number and it shows an economy that’s doing very well,” and she is “not expecting growth at that pace to continue, but we do have good, solid growth.”

US economy expanding?

U.S. can ‘certainly’ afford military support to both Israel and Ukraine, meanwhile…

U.S. can ‘certainly’ afford military support to both Israel and Ukraine, Janet Yellen says

“America can certainly afford to stand with Israel and to support Israel’s military needs and we also can and must support Ukraine in its struggle against Russia,” Yellen said, adding that the U.S. economy is doing “extremely well.”

“Inflation has been high and it’s been a concern to households, it’s come down considerably. At the same time, we have about the strongest labor market we’ve seen in 50 years with 3.8% unemployment. And at the same time, America, the Biden administration, has passed legislation that is strengthening our economy in years to come for the medium term.”

Related:

Ticking Time-Bomb: Food Inflation Is Crushing Millions Of Low Income Americans (archived)

And so the debate circles round and round. The US, the “most wealthy nation on the planet”, has a food security problem and is on the verge of an inflationary calamity for millions of low income citizens, all while it spends hundreds of billions of dollars on pointless climate change programs, diversity and inclusion initiatives and proxy wars. Something has to give, and the chances are growing that it will be the American consumer.